Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin climbed close to $65,000 for the first time in more than three weeks, while Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin also moved higher after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data lifted sentiment across the crypto market. Interestingly, the rally came even though the inflation data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut, showing that investors are drawing confidence from improving economic conditions rather than focusing on a single policy decision.

The gains were not limited to Bitcoin alone. Strength across Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin suggests that buying interest is returning to the broader crypto market, which is often a healthier sign than a rally led by just one asset. It indicates that confidence is gradually improving across the digital asset ecosystem.

Another important takeaway is how the market reacted to the news. Instead of being discouraged by lower chances of an immediate rate cut, investors focused on easing inflation and signs of a more stable economic environment. This shows that the market is becoming more balanced and is looking at the bigger picture rather than reacting to every headline.

For investors, this is a reminder that market recoveries are often built gradually. When confidence starts returning across multiple assets and is supported by improving economic conditions, it can create a stronger foundation for the next phase of growth than a rally driven by short-term excitement alone."

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"We faltered... and did not adapt and move quickly enough," IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in a letter to investors. Read full report here

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BTC moved above $65K after June inflation data came in softer than expected. Headline CPI declined 0.4% month-on-month, its steepest fall since April 2020, while core inflation was flat. The data eased immediate concerns around further rate hikes and supported broader risk sentiment. BTC now faces resistance in the $66K-$67K range; a sustained move above this zone could open the path toward $70K. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices remain key risks, as renewed energy-driven inflation could limit the market's upside.

The Thesis

With Brent above $86 and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Indian equities fell 0.63% while the signal rotated decisively into domestic healthcare and pharma API exports - sectors that earn forex on crude's rise or operate on non-discretionary demand. FII outflows of Rs 3,062 cr were absorbed by DII buying, preserving structural support. As Q1 FY27 earnings season opens today, IT services adds a second dollar-earning cushion against macro volatility.

Where We're Concentrated

Conviction clusters in healthcare - hospital chains, biopharma, and API manufacturing - with secondary threads in specialty materials and IT services. The unifying logic: hospitals earn domestically, pharma API exporters earn in dollars, and IT contracts hedge the rupee. The thesis breaks if a ceasefire reopens the Strait before FII outflows reverse, eroding the defensive premium these names currently carry.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Divi's Laboratories

API leader gaining as Strait-driven rerouting of global pharma supply chains amplifies dollar-denominated export demand.

Biocon

Biopharma leader with biosimilar export revenues acting as a natural dollar hedge as domestic crude cost pressures intensify.

Tata Consultancy Services

IT bellwether reporting Q1 FY27 results today; dollar revenues insulate margins from oil-shock volatility across domestic sectors.

Grasim Industries

Specialty chemicals and cement riding domestic infrastructure demand - a structural buffer against oil-shock input cost inflation.

Apollo Hospitals

Hospital network benefiting from defensive rotation; non-discretionary demand and zero crude input exposure insulate revenue.

One Thing to Watch

Brent at $90. A break above that level shifts crude from a sector-rotation catalyst to systemic risk - pressuring RBI's rate path, the rupee, and the pharma export margins that anchor this rotation's logic.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold rebounded back above the $4,000 mark, trading near $4,075, after a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report eased Federal Reserve rate-hike concerns. The relief allowed precious metals to recover even as crude oil climbed, with silver reclaiming the $58 level. Meanwhile, crude rose above $80 per barrel, extending weekly gains to more than 10%, after President Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The soft inflation print now counterbalances the oil-driven inflation channel that had weighed on metals, though elevated energy prices keep that risk alive. A sustained decline in yields could help gold test the $4,100 resistance, while $ 3,990 acts as immediate support. 

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $64,600 on Wednesday. It gained about 3.5% over the past 24 hours. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data weakened the dollar. This also reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase.The cryptocurrency traded between roughly $62,250 and $65,050 over the previous 24 hours. Immediate support is near $64,000, followed by the stronger $62,200-$62,900 region. Resistance is located around $65,000, followed by $67,200.

On-chain indicators, however, suggest that the recovery remains incomplete. Bitcoin's True Market Mean is estimated at around $76,600. The short-term holder cost basis is around $72,200. This leaves the current Bitcoin price below key investor breakeven levels.Long-term-holder loss realisation recently accounted for 43% of total realised value, with losses peaking near $280 million daily. This indicates that some older investors continue to sell into periods of price strength.

Institutional demand also remains uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $197.4 million during the July 6-10 week, but recorded a substantial $424.7 million outflow on July 13. Farside's July 14 figure showed a preliminary $21.1 million inflow, although several major fund readings were still unavailable.

Ethereum led the large-cap altcoins, rising about 4.9% to $1,869. BNB gained 1.9% to $580, XRP advanced 3.5% to $1.10, Solana rose 2.9% to $77.35, while TRON added about 0.5% to $0.326.

June US inflation eased to 3.5%, while core inflation slowed to 2.6%. Futures markets reduced the probability of a July Fed hike to about 16%, although they continued to price a roughly 60% chance of a September increase. Wednesday's US producer-price report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Senate testimony and the July 28-29 policy meeting remain key catalysts. Higher oil prices linked to renewed Gulf tensions could revive inflation concerns.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing the relief rally. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin sustains a move above $65,000 and ETF demand becomes more consistent.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

June's softer U.S. inflation print has provided a tactical boost to global risk sentiment, but it has not fully resolved the broader macro uncertainty. Headline CPI slowed to 3.5%, while core inflation eased to 2.6%, prompting a pullback in the dollar and Treasury yields and supporting U.S. equities, crypto and precious metals.

Bitcoin has responded positively, reclaiming the $64,000 region and moving closer to the important $65,000-$66,000 supply zone. The two-hour structure remains constructive as long as BTC holds above $63,500-$64,000. A sustained breakout above $66,000 could strengthen the recovery, while a fall below $63,500 may expose the $62,900 area.

Ethereum continues to show stronger relative momentum. Its breakout above $1,830 keeps $1,900 in focus, although a move below $1,805 would weaken the near-term setup.

Gold received an initial lift from softer inflation but remains technically fragile below the $4,060-$4,100 resistance band.

The main risk is that much of June's inflation relief came from lower energy prices. With oil rising again amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, inflation may reaccelerate in the coming months. This could keep the Federal Reserve cautious and limit the upside in equities, crypto, gold and silver despite the immediate post-CPI relief.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Crypto markets bounced back after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data eased concerns around further interest rate hikes. Bitcoin is trading above $64,400, while Ethereum has outperformed with weekly gains of over 4%. Once again, we're seeing how closely crypto responds to macroeconomic signals. Lower inflation improves the outlook for liquidity, and that naturally supports risk assets like crypto.

However, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could put inflation back under pressure in the coming months. Until we see sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, continued institutional participation, stablecoin expansion and real-world asset tokenisation, short-term price action will continue to dominate.

For Futures traders, the focus now shifts to how the market reacts around key technical levels. According to analysts, many traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can establish strength above the $64,500-$65,000 zone, while the $63,000-$63,500 region remains an important area where buyers have recently stepped in. Rather than anticipating a breakout in either direction, these levels can help traders gauge market conviction, especially with macro data and institutional flows continuing to shape sentiment.

Traders could be watching whether ZEC can sustain momentum above the $560-$575 resistance range, where previous rallies have struggled to extend. On the downside, the $530-$540 zone may act as the first area of support if profit-taking emerges after the recent move higher."

IBM Stock Crash: IBM said its revenue for the three months ending in June rose just one per cent to $17.2 billion. Read full report here

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 declined 158.95 points (0.66%) to close at 24,052.05 on Tuesday, while the Sensex lost 561.46 points to settle at 77,054.94, as renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. The US decision to reinstate a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above the $87-per-barrel mark, triggering broad-based profit booking across Realty, Auto and Financial stocks. Defensive buying in Pharma and selective strength in Metals, however, helped cushion the broader decline.

Global cues turned relatively supportive overnight. US equities ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.38% and the Nasdaq advancing 0.90%, after softer-than-expected June CPI data reinforced hopes of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Gains in the Dow remained limited following cautious guidance from IBM. Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday, with Hong Kong leading regional gains, while Brent crude eased towards $85 per barrel after President Trump withdrew the proposed 20% transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz. Although crude has cooled from recent highs, elevated energy prices continue to remain a key macro risk for India.

GIFT Nifty hovered around 24,040, indicating a largely flat start for domestic markets. Technically, the index remains in a consolidation phase with a cautious bias. The 24,200 level continues to be the immediate hurdle; a sustained move above it could pave the way towards 24,350-24,500. On the downside, 24,000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average, is a crucial support, and a decisive breach may accelerate weakness towards 23,900-23800. Going ahead, developments around crude oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz situation will remain the key drivers of near-term market direction.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin briefly climbed to the $65,000 level after a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report improved risk sentiment and pushed Treasury yields lower. BTC showed strong resilience despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh tempering the optimism, cautioning that a single inflation reading is not enough to declare victory over inflation, while elevated oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz standoff remain a risk. The buying pressure seems to be driven by whales, with 25,644 BTC leaving the exchanges in a single day, the strongest outflow in six months, pointing to accumulation. Markets are now watching U.S. PPI and mortgage data for the next catalyst. A sustained close above $65,000 could extend the rally towards $68,000, while $62,500 now serves as an important support level.

At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,79,47,933.