Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Global markets are facing an inflation-led risk-off setup following renewed hostilities involving the United States and Iran, together with Iran's claim that the Strait of Hormuz had again been closed. Brent crude rose about 4% to $79.11, while U.S. equity futures weakened. The dollar strengthened and the two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.2393%, indicating that investors are assigning a greater probability to further Federal Reserve tightening.

Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, spot gold slipped toward $4,076 an ounce, suggesting that higher yields and dollar strength are currently outweighing traditional safe-haven demand. XAUT perpetuals, were trading near $4,060 and remained below their major moving averages. Immediate support lies at $4,025-$4,055. A break below $4,025 could expose $4,000 and $3,960-$3,980, while a recovery would first require a move above $4,090-$4,115.

Crypto also came under selling pressure. Bitcoin traded near $62,615, Price remained below the major long-term average around $63,778. Separately, the four-hour chart identifies $63,800-$64,000 as a key reference resistance area, with support around $62,300-$62,000 and $61,200-$61,900.

Ether fell toward $1,790 after another rejection from the $1,805-$1,850 supply zone. Its broader recovery structure remains intact while price holds the $1,740-$1,770 region, although a breakdown could bring $1,710-$1,730 into focus.

Markets will now track actual shipping flows through Hormuz, Brent near $80, the July 14 U.S. CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony.

BTC held near $64K despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty following U.S. strikes on Iran last week. Sentiment improved as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197 million in weekly inflows, ending an eight-week run of outflows. While institutional demand is still in the early stages of recovery, continued inflows over the coming weeks could strengthen the recovery and support a move toward the $65K level.

Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay

"Bitcoin's (BTC) resilience remains one of the key indicators investors are closely watching. 

Macro uncertainty has returned after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from the Iran ceasefire, weighing on overall market sentiment. The renewed geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices up more than 5%, with crude now approaching the $75 level-a price range that has historically been associated with increased volatility and corrections across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. 

The shift in sentiment has already impacted the derivatives market, with more than $13 million in Bitcoin long positions liquidated over the past 24 hours as leveraged traders were forced to exit. On the network side, Bitcoin's mining difficulty declined 5% on July 11 to 127.17 trillion during its 14th difficulty adjustment of 2026, bringing the metric closer to its lowest level of the year. While short-term uncertainty persists, Bitcoin has continued to show resilience despite the broader macro headwinds.  

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,500.

BTC, on a daily time frame,  made a low of $57,800 on 1st July. However, it failed to sustain below the key support level of $60,000 and gave a relief rally of almost 11% up to $64,700. Bitcoin is trading in a range from $60,000 to $65,000 with declining volumes. Breakouts on either side of the range with good volumes will further decide the trend for the asset."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin has recovered about 6% from its late-June lows to trade near $63,700, helped by a return of positive ETF inflows. Whether that recovery develops into a sustained uptrend will depend on fresh institutional demand and this week's US macroeconomic data. 

Institutional participation has improved, although it remains inconsistent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net $197.4 million during the July 6-10 trading week after inflows of $265.7 million on July 6 and $90.4 million on July 10 offset combined outflows of about $180 million on July 8 and 9. The return of positive weekly flows is encouraging, but it does not yet represent the kind of broad-based institutional accumulation that typically accompanies a strong bull market. 

On-chain data also presents a mixed picture. Analysts' desks estimate Bitcoin's True Market Mean at about $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200, leaving the current market price roughly 12-17% below both levels. In simple terms, many investors who bought Bitcoin over the past few months are still sitting on unrealised losses. If Bitcoin continues to recover, some of these investors may choose to sell once prices approach their purchase levels to recover their capital. That could create additional selling pressure around the $72,000-76,000 range before the market can sustain a stronger uptrend. 

From a technical perspective, the market remains range-bound. Immediate support is located around $63,000, followed by $62,000 and the psychologically important $60,000 level. On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $65,000 before traders begin focusing on the $67,000-68,000 zone. A decisive move above those levels would improve market structure, while a break below $62,000 could expose Bitcoin to another test of recent lows. 

Ethereum was trading near $1,800, up about 0.1% over the past 24 hours, while BNB gained around 0.4% to $575. XRP underperformed, declining about 1.6% to $1.08, while Solana was broadly unchanged near $76. TRON outperformed its large-cap peers with a gain of about 0.6% to $0.33. The relatively subdued moves across the largest altcoins suggest investors are still favouring established assets over higher-beta tokens, reflecting a cautious rather than risk-on market environment. 

The coming week may prove more important than recent price action. The US Consumer Price Index on July 14, Producer Price Index on July 15, Federal Reserve Chair testimony before Congress, and the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29 will shape expectations for US interest rates. Crypto markets have become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic data, with Treasury yields and monetary policy expectations now exerting as much influence as blockchain-specific developments. 

The market appears to be transitioning from panic selling towards cautious accumulation rather than entering a fresh bull phase. ETF demand has stabilised, on-chain valuation has become more attractive, and selling pressure has moderated. However, Bitcoin still needs stronger institutional participation and favourable macroeconomic signals before it can convincingly break above the $65,000 resistance zone and establish a more durable recovery.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing short-term rallies ahead of this week's US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary. With Bitcoin trading between key support near $62,000 and resistance around $65,000, staggered accumulation and disciplined position sizing remain more prudent than aggressive directional bets.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 extended its rebound on Friday, rising 244 points or 1.02% to close at 24,206.90, supported by strength in financials and IT stocks amid improving global sentiment. Bank Nifty advanced 1.39%, while the IT index gained 1.96%. Investor confidence improved as both FIIs and DIIs remained net buyers, investing ₹2,604 crore and ₹2,020 crore respectively, while India VIX eased to 12.25, reflecting lower market volatility. Global cues were supportive, with US markets ending higher on Friday, led by technology heavyweights including Nvidia and Meta, as sustained enthusiasm around AI continued to drive investor appetite.

Asian markets are trading mixed in early trade, with Japan under pressure while Hong Kong posts modest gains. Brent crude continues to hover near $79 per barrel after a sharp weekly rise, as supply concerns linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Higher crude prices remain a key monitor for Indian equities. Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty is indicating a softer start, trading below Friday's closing level.

Technically, the near-term trend remains positive, with the Nifty holding above the crucial 24,100 level. Sustaining above this zone could trigger further upside towards 24,350 and 24,550. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,000, while a decisive break could lead to profit booking towards 23,800. Investors are likely to remain focused on global risk sentiment and crude oil prices for the next directional move.

Crypto gains have to be disclosed under Schedule VDA while filing ITR-2 or ITR-3, depending on the taxpayer's profile. Read full report here

The Thesis

India's market closed +1.02% as VIX collapsed 8.3% despite active US strikes on Iran - FII bought Rs 2,604 crore net, confirming the Hormuz premium is a tactical trade, not a structural threat. The portfolio concentrates in domestic demand compounders - jewelry, cement, healthcare - shielded from crude volatility and amplified by RBI's easing cycle.

Where We're Concentrated

Focus sits across gold-linked discretionary, diversified materials tied to real estate recovery, and healthcare services expanding nationally. India's domestic demand absorbs $76 Brent comfortably; any Iran de-escalation unlocks margin expansion for cement and chemicals. Break: Brent sustaining above $82 reopens input cost pressure across the industrials.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd.

Gold safe-haven demand surges as Iran tensions keep risk premium alive; domestic jewelry consumption remains structurally firm.

IFCI Ltd.

PSU development finance gains traction as RBI easing and government capex demand amplify industrial credit pipeline momentum.

Grasim Industries Ltd.

Cement sector rally and real estate recovery lift this diversified materials play as Brent stays contained near $76.

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd.

Healthcare services expansion accelerates across Tier-2 cities; defensive but growing as VIX stays low and domestic capex rises.

Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd.

Ferro-alloy and steel momentum builds as domestic infrastructure spending holds; metals sector captures the broad market rotation.

One Thing to Watch

Brent above $80. Hormuz disruption pushing crude back through that level squeezes margins in cement and chemicals and tests Monday's thesis anchor.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Bitcoin is trading between key moving averages, where buyers are indicating short term bullishness. According to analysts, as long as Bitcoin holds above $63,150 buyers retain a modest near-term advantage. However, a failure to reclaim $63,450 could keep price action range-bound. Futures traders are watching for a high-volume breakout beyond either of these zones, as that is likely to determine the next directional move.

Ethereum has held firm around the $1,800 mark after gaining nearly 3%, supported by renewed institutional demand. Spot U.S. Ethereum ETFs recorded $84.4 million in weekly inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows, while continued corporate accumulation suggests long-term conviction remains intact. However, futures positioning indicates retail traders are still cautious, highlighting a divergence between institutional buying and short-term sentiment.

This week, markets will closely watch the U.S. CPI, PPI, retail sales data and the Fed Chair's testimony, as they could influence expectations around interest rates. Softer inflation would improve the outlook for risk assets, including crypto, while persistent inflation or geopolitical pressures on energy markets could keep volatility elevated."

At the close on Friday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,81,75,250.