India May Get $10-12 Billion As US Processes Trump Tariff Refunds: Report

Last year, the US under President Donald Trump slapped steep tariffs across a wide range of imports -- including many from India -- using an emergency power law that didn't have clear backing from Congress. However, in February this year, the US Supreme Court ruled that those tariffs were unconstitutional, effectively voiding them. The decision could trigger one of the largest refund processes in US trade history.  

Following the Supreme Court ruling, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) launched a new online portal called CAPE -- the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system -- which opened on April 20, 2026. The portal lets businesses begin filing claims to recover duties they paid under the struck-down tariff regime. Follow Live Updates

Not all tariffs were linked to India, but a GTRI (Global Trade Research Initiative) report estimates that roughly $10-12 billion of the total refunds (over $166 billion) touch on Indian goods that were imported into the US during the tariff period.

Sharing his insights on the development, Sohrab Bararia, Partner - Indirect Tax, Grant Thornton Bharat, said, "CBP's upcoming deployment of Phase 1 of the CAPE platform on April 20, 2026, marks a significant milestone for Importers of Record (IORs) and customs brokers in relation to IEEPA duty refunds. The introduction of CAPE allows bulk processing of refund claims thereby reducing reliance on manual, entry-wise filings and minimising administrative bottlenecks. For IORs and brokers, this is expected to accelerate refund realisation, improve cash flows, and bring procedural clarity."

He added, "At the same time, it also places immediate responsibility on stakeholders to identify and compile eligible entries across historical periods.  While this could result in substantial cash inflows, it also necessitates timely data collation, validation of entry details, and coordination with brokers to ensure accurate submissions."  

Where These India-Linked Refunds Come From

Most of this refund potential is concentrated in sectors that saw heavy tariff exposure last year, including:

Who Can Claim the Money?

Here's where the story gets tricky for Indian companies:

Indian exporters themselves cannot directly apply for refund checks from US authorities. Only US importers or customs brokers who actually paid the tariffs are eligible to file refund claims.  

That means even though Indian goods are tied to billions of dollars in refunds, the cash won't automatically flow back to Indian companies -- it will first go to the American firms that paid the duties at US ports.

So How Can Indian Exporters Benefit?

Since Indian companies can't file claims directly, they'll need to negotiate to actually capture part of the money tied to their products. Here's how that could play out:

1. Rebate-Sharing Deals: Indian exporters may strike deals with their US buyers to share the refunded duties -- turning an importer's refund into real cash or pricing concessions for the Indian firm.

2. Price Renegotiations: Where tariffs had been built into contract prices last year, Indian exporters might try to revisit those agreements now that the cost has been reversed.

3. Future Orders & Competitive Advantage: With the tariff cloud cleared and refund momentum building, Indian firms could use this moment to negotiate new orders at more competitive net prices.

All of this, however, depends on how aggressively Indian exporters and industry groups press their American partners, since the refunds legally go only to US importers.  

How The Refund Process Itself Is Unfolding

The tariff refund rollout, one of the biggest trade policy reversals in recent memory, has seen strong interest from business:

• Over 56,000 importers have already registered to claim refunds on roughly $127 billion of tariffs collected.  
• Total potential refunds exceed $166 billion, spanning millions of import entries.
• Claims submissions will be processed over the coming months, with approved refunds issued generally within 60-90 days, according to CBP and trade lawyers.  

But the system isn't perfect - technical glitches and complex documentation requirements have slowed some claim filings.  "By centralising validations and standardising the process, CAPE is expected to reduce errors and ensure consistency across cases. Overall, the Phase 1 go-live represents a crucial and efficient step towards the execution of IEEPA refunds while easing compliance for trade participants," said Bararia.

What This Means for India's Trade Story

For a country that exported tens of billions worth of goods to the United States last year, this refund opportunity is potentially transformative, especially for labour-intensive sectors that were hit hardest by the Trump-era tariffs.  

If Indian firms can get a fair share of that $10-12 billion through commercial settlement with US partners -- rather than leaving it all with importers -- it could boost margins, restore lost pricing ground, and help secure future business.