Tesla Official Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus: Analysts Predict a Dip After Record Q3

Tesla's latest company-compiled delivery consensus for Q4 2025, based on estimates from leading sell-side analysts, suggests a notable slowdown in deliveries compared to the previous quarter. While Q3 2025 marked a record-breaking performance for the EV giant, the outlook for the final quarter of the year appears more conservative. Since its launch in July 2025 in India, Tesla has managed to deliver less than 500 cars so far and the start has been sluggish for the American EV maker.

Q3 2025: A Strong Finish Before the Slowdown

According to Tesla's official release, the company delivered 4,97,099 vehicles in Q3 2025 globally. This figure includes 4,81,166 units of Model 3/Y, which remain Tesla's volume drivers, and 15,933 units of other models, such as the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. The robust Q3 numbers underscore Tesla's ability to maintain strong demand and production efficiency despite global economic uncertainties and intensifying competition in the EV space.

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Q4 2025 Consensus: Analysts Expect Lower Volumes

For Q4 2025, Tesla compiled estimates from top financial institutions, including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and others. The median consensus estimate for total deliveries stands at 4,20,399 units, reflecting a 15% decline from Q3's actual figures.

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The standard deviation of these estimates is 21,959, based on inputs from 20 analysts, indicating moderate variability in expectations.

This projected dip could be attributed to several factors:

• Seasonal demand fluctuations typically seen in the automotive industry during year-end.
• Production adjustments as Tesla ramps up new 2026 models and optimises supply chains.
• Macroeconomic headwinds, including interest rate pressures and consumer sentiment shifts.

What It Means for Tesla and the EV Market

While a quarter-on-quarter decline may raise eyebrows, Tesla's long-term outlook remains strong. Analysts continue to forecast growth in 2026 and beyond, driven by:

• Expansion of Gigafactories and localisation strategies.
• Increased adoption of energy storage solutions, which Tesla is aggressively scaling.
• Upcoming innovations in autonomous driving and AI-powered mobility.

However, Tesla's ability to deliver nearly half a million vehicles in Q3 demonstrates resilience and operational excellence.

Looking Ahead

As the EV market matures, Tesla's performance will be closely watched for signals on global demand trends, pricing strategies, and technology leadership. With competitors accelerating their EV programmes, Tesla's focus on cost optimisation and product innovation will be critical in sustaining its dominance.