New Delhi:
APJ Abdul Kalam, who is being hosted at lunch by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar today, has said he will decide at the right time whether to contest Presidential elections for a second stint in the Rashtrapati Bhawan. And though Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee promises that he will contest, a lot of factors now seem to be stacking up to put a question mark on the ex-President's participation.
For one the NDA, which would necessarily have to side with Dr Kalam to give him any chance at a contest, has said it is in no hurry to announce its candidate and would do so only after the UPA announced its nominee. LK Advani, at whose house an NDA meeting was held today, lambasted the government for what he called its clumsy handling of the Presidential elections. "There is total lack of coherence and intense levels of distrust at highest levels in UPA," he said adding that his BJP-led combine would "watch every development. We will consult leaders of all non-Congress parties. We will consult our chief ministers also."
But Mr Advani also seemed to leave the door open for wider consultations or even consensus. "If the government wants to correct the situation, let it consult all parties," he said, adding his alliance was "ready to talk to anybody." NDA convenor Sharad Yadav said if the ruling UPA did approach the Opposition, they would consider their request. NDA constituents have in the past indicated that they might not oppose Pranab Mukherjee, if the UPA fields him.
Ms Banerjee said in New Delhi today that she had spoken to Dr Kalam. "Kalamji will be contesting the election, he has said this today. We will like to congratulate Kalamji...Nobody should contest against him. I will appeal again to everyone to all political parties to give their support to APJ Abdul Kalam."
In Patna, the former President said, "A lot of people have contacted me to ask me to serve as President. I will take a right decision at appropriate time." Dr Kalam had so far avoided comment ever since an unprecedented second stint for him was suggested on Tuesday by Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and the Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Dr Kalam is said to be clear that unless the numbers favour him and a win is assured, he will not contest. He wants, sources say, a guaranteed 55 per cent support. The sources also said Dr Kalam might not be keen to contest against Pranab Mukherjee, who has reportedly been all but penciled in as the UPA's candidate for the next President.
Dr Kalam's decision on contesting is also likely to take into account what Mr Yadav does next; after suggesting Dr Kalam's name as part of a wishlist of three, the Samajwadi Party chief clarified yesterday that while the ex-president was Mr Kalam is a serious contender, he is not his party's final candidate. Ms Banerjee today spoke for Mulayam Singh again, pledging his support to Dr Kalam's candidacy. But there was no more word from Mr Yadav himself, who is now in Lucknow.
There are reports that the Congress' hectic back channel efforts to woo back Mulayam Singh Yadav might yield results. Congress sources have said the party is rather hopeful of bagging Mr Yadav's support for the candidacy of its nominee - Pranab Mukherjee is said to be the favoured name right now.
Dr Kalam's name was first suggested by the BJP's Sushma Swaraj some months ago. Sources in the BJP have said that top leaders believe that Dr Kalam would be a most suitable candidate. Before the NDA meeting in Delhi began, NDA convenor Sharad Yadav, who is a leader of the JD(U), said about the names proposed by Mamata and Mulayam, including that of Dr Kalam: "There is no meaning of these names , we are not saying yes or no for these names; we will discuss and decide."
Interestingly, Dr Kalam's host for lunch in Patna, CM Nitish Kumar, is also from the JD(U). He welcomed Dr Kalam at the airport and the gesture was seen as a possible warming up of the JD(U) to the idea of Dr Kalam being a potential candidate.
On Tuesday though, the party had approached Mr Kalam's potential candidacy with caution, saying that it wasn't sure if a second term for the eminent scientist would set a healthy precedent. The party, though, made it clear that it would want the NDA to take a joint decision.
Mamata Banerjee participates in the UPA government and Mr Yadav has so far been a staunch supporter from outside. Together they also command a substantial 11 per cent of the electoral college that will elect the next President. That 11% with the NDA's 28% will need only a little help from non-UPA, non-NDA parties to get Dr Kalam into Rashtrapati Bhawan if the NDA decides to support him.
But, analysts ask, can Mulayam Singh Yadav afford to be seen on the same side of a contest as the BJP?
THIS IS HOW NUMBERS ADD UP:
If the Trinamool Congress (4.37% votes), Samajwadi Party (6%) and Mayawati's BSP support the UPA, the ruling combine will get 5,71,644 votes in its kitty. That will ensure that the UPA will have 52 per cent, a majority, of the overall votes. But if Ms Banerjee decides to go against the UPA candidate, UPA's vote share will drop to 5,25,719 votes at 48 per cent, shy of a majority.
If the SP and the TMC join hands with the NDA to back Dr Kalam, they have a combined 38.63% votes in the electoral college. The UPA without the TMC is 37.63%.
Non-NDA, non-UPA parties, including the SP make up 24% of the college. Smaller parties have 6% share.
The presidential election places at par the votes of all MPs with those of all elected members of state legislatures - so regional parties count for a lot. The electoral college for the presidential poll is 4896, constituting 776 Members of Parliament and 4120 Members of Legislative Assemblies, including those of Delhi and Puducherry. The total value of votes is 10,98,882 with that of MLAs being 5,49,474 and that of MPs being 5,49,408. Nominated members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and state Assemblies are not entitled to vote.