Mark Carney's Party Sees Jump In Popularity After His Viral Davos Speech

Mark Carney's Liberal Party is enjoying a surge in polls after the Canadian prime minister earned praise from other world leaders for his Davos speech urging smaller countries to resist coercion by superpowers.

A new survey released by Leger Marketing finds Carney's Liberals with a nine-point lead over the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre. That follows a poll from Liaison Strategies that had an eight-point Liberal lead, and other surveys showing Carney's personal approval rating on the rise.

The Liberals won the popular vote in last April's election by just two percentage points—enough for a victory but just short of winning a majority of seats in Parliament.

The polls have led to speculation of a snap election call, though Carney shot down the idea earlier this week. “Of course we're not,” he told a reporter on Monday when asked if his government was planning to call a new vote. “We're focused on results for Canadians.”

Carney made the remark after announcing an increased tax rebate to help Canadians pay for groceries. Between that voter-friendly measure and the reaction he has received for his World Economic Forum address, the coming months may open an opportunity for the Liberals to try their luck again with voters, said Andrew Enns, an executive vice-president at Leger. 

“Within days he's dropped two really strong elements to talk about if he were to end up on a campaign trail,” Enns said.

In his Davos speech, Carney said middle powers such as Canada must stop relying on the “fiction” of the international rules-based order and institutions. Instead, he said, they must work together in coalitions to counter attempts at coercion from global superpowers, including the use of tariffs. He didn't mention US President Donald Trump by name.

The speech came just days after Carney visited Beijing and signed a “strategic partnership” with Chinese President Xi Jinping that reduced tariffs on Canadian food products and Chinese electric vehicles.

Both events have caused tension with Trump, who on the weekend threatened 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports if Carney pursued a trade deal with China. The president also called him “Governor” Carney, using an insult he'd often brandished against Justin Trudeau. 

Carney spoke with Trump by phone this week and said a free-trade deal with China wasn't on the table, he told reporters Tuesday.

Trump's hostile reaction will likely only help Carney domestically, Enns said.

“We've seen it before that when the American president starts to challenge Canada—you know, the 51st state or make fun of our leaders—Canadians tend to rally around that individual, and the patriotic spirit starts to step up a bit,” Enns said. “The Liberals will own that space, largely.”

The Leger poll found large leads for Carney's Liberals in Canada's manufacturing heartland of Ontario, as well as in the French-speaking province of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Carney also holds a dominant 20-point lead with voters aged 55 and older.

But Poilievre's Conservatives are stronger in western Canada and hold a slim edge among middle-aged voters, showing the risk Carney would be taking if he did call an early election.

Poilievre's leadership will get its own test of support on Friday at his party's national convention, where Conservative members will cast ballots on whether they want a new leader. Poilievre remains popular with his party's base and is expected to survive the vote. But among the general population, he is not viewed as favourably as Carney.

An Angus Reid Institute survey published Monday found a 60 per cent positive rating for Carney, compared to just 36 per cent for Poilievre. That's an eight-point jump in Carney's rating since December.