Does Donald Trump's Iran Off-Ramp Run Through China, Russia?

Nearly three months into the Iran war, US President Donald Trump still lacks an off-ramp - beyond a blanket demand that the country surrender its enriched uranium stockpile - to end fighting. And Tehran's use of chokepoints - the Strait of Hormuz, which ships 20 per cent of the world's oil - has exposed a structural leverage warfare, to which the US has no immediate reply.

Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin's May 19-20 Beijing visit - close on the heels of Trump's May 13-15 trip - has led to speculation about how indirect support from Russia and China is likely critical to Iran continuing to hold off US forces.

The visit will be closely watched for indications about what role the two countries - which have experienced closer economic, diplomatic, and security ties over the past two decades, bonding over mutual distrust of the United States in that time - might play, if any, in helping Trump with an off-ramp. What concessions they might extract for that support will also be watched.

Tehran's shadow lifeline

Experts have pointed to Beijing buying sanctioned crude from Tehran - at hefty discounts and paid for in renminbi (Chinese yuan) to nullify the SWIFT ban - and Moscow's 'military-adjacent support', which has included satellite intelligence on the location of US warships and aircraft.

Support from both has been critical for Iran so far but neither is sufficient to help it beat back the US. And that is critical because it keeps China and Russia from being Iran's guarantor against US aggression. The result is an opaque dance.

China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Photo: Reuters

The US is aware China is effectively funding Iran by buying discounted crude and is trying to shut that pipeline.

NDTV Special | US' $240 Million Drone Over Cuba That's Strangling China's Oil Supply

In April a US Navy drone tracking Caribbean Sea shipping sketched out a possible 'China chokepoint calculus' - involving Venezuela, Iran, and the Strait of Malacca - that likely signals Washington's long-term 'starve China of oil' plan.

Satellite intel and a "bit" of help

And the US is aware Russia is offering some support to Iran. "A bit, Moscow might be helping them a bit," Trump told broadcaster Fox News in mid-March when asked about this link.

Insight into that "bit" was offered independently by Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow with the US-based Jamestown Foundation, who told Al Jazeera Iran received information from 'Liana' - a set of Russian spy satellites designed to track American carrier strike groups and warships.

Of course, any talk between Trump and Putin on this score is a moving target, and likely tied to disgruntled exchanges between the two over Russia's Ukraine war, a conflict the US President vowed to end within days of taking office for a second time; that was back in January 2025.

All this means the Iran war has evolved from a standalone military crisis for the US.

Not an alliance, but a bargain

But sanctioned crude purchases and military-adjacent aid do not constitute an alliance.

It is uneven cooperation driven more by an immediacy of aligned needs rather than long-term gains. Neither Russia nor China will fight the US over Iran, instead likely preferring to extract specific favours - potentially around Taiwan and Ukraine/NATO.

China made that point clearly and early during Trump's visit - that "missteps" on this topic could push the two countries into "conflict". For Russia concessions will more likely involve easing of sanctions, including restrictions on exporting its own crude, demand for which increased substantially after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz to squeeze Middle East supplies.