The strategic dilemmas facing Europe and India today originate from an increasingly unpredictable and unilateral US foreign policy. Beyond mere criticism of alliances, Donald Trump has created deep insecurity among partners once reliant on American stability. With Washington shifting toward a transactional "MAGA Imperialism", both regions are navigating a harsher security environment defined by US disengagement and the aggressive reassertion of spheres of influence.
For Europe, the shock has been swift and profound. The 2026 renewal of US claims to annex Greenland, framed as a "national security necessity" following the military intervention in Venezuela, has shattered the illusion of a rules-based transatlantic order. By suggesting that Denmark cannot handle the strategic demands of the era, Trump has signalled that his "Donroe Doctrine" (a 21st-century expansion of the Monroe Doctrine) now views even European soil through a lens of American acquisition. This follows the dramatic January 3, 2026, capture of Nicolás Maduro during Operation Absolute Resolve, where the Venezuelan leader was extrajudicially rendered to the USS Iwo Jima.
The Growing Russia Threat For Europe
European leaders now view the US not as a protector but as a direct threat to continental sovereignty. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a sharp warning on January 5, 2026, stating that "no one will take seriously a weak and divided Europe" and that without unity, the continent is "finished". Tusk emphasised that such large-scale events as the US strike in Venezuela affect the entire globe, forcing Europe to "react and prepare for a new situation".
This shift comes as Russia's threat grows through cyberattacks and military pressure. Consequently, Europe is rearming and distancing itself from China's economic influence. The threat is no longer just a pullback from NATO; it is an active encroachment on European sovereignty that makes the drive for strategic autonomy a survival necessity.
India faces a similar challenge. With waning US support in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi faces increased pressure from China. While Beijing may publicly seek tactical harmony, it continues to strengthen the military capacity of India's neighbours. A 2025 Pentagon report confirmed China delivered 36 advanced J-10C fighter jets to Pakistan, effectively compressing India's decision-making timelines and eroding traditional air superiority buffers. This collusion underscores that Beijing's diplomacy cannot be equated with strategic trustworthiness.
These insecurities are collateral effects of a US policy focused on leverage over stability. Ironically, they create a basis for new alignment: Europe searches for partners beyond the Atlantic, and India seeks to diversify its cooperation in defence, technology, and supply chains. Yet, Russia complicates this emerging Europe-India alignment.
Moscow's Growing Dependence On China
For decades, Russia helped India maintain strategic independence. However, Moscow's growing dependence on China now limits its autonomy. A partner unwilling to help India earlier is even less likely to do so now, as Beijing likely sees Russian passivity as a green light for coercion. Recent high-level summits have been high on symbolism but delivered little substance, highlighting Russia's limited current offerings.
From a European perspective, Russia is now the principal security threat. Grey-zone coercion and long-term decoupling have pushed Europe into its most serious military mobilisation since the Cold War. In this context, India's deep defence integration with Moscow limits the speed and depth of its integration into sensitive Western technology ecosystems.
India faces a tough choice: Russian equipment remains vital, but overreliance on a weaker, China-aligned Russia is risky. Phased diversification toward European suppliers offers a balanced path forward. The "American variable" adds further uncertainty. Trump's current stance, exemplified by the Donroe Doctrine and the forceful removal of Maduro, has unsettled all allies. While this may offer India transactional energy opportunities in a US-controlled Venezuelan oil market, it reinforces the danger of relying on a Washington that prizes unilateral leverage over global stability.
Two Outcomes
To plan strategically, India must consider two contrasting US outcomes. A renewed traditional alliance could fortify transatlantic relations and enhance India's access to technology. Conversely, deeper US retrenchment or a pivot toward territorial expansionism could force India to bolster its self-reliance while exploring alternative partnerships. In either scenario, India-Europe partnerships are vital.
The strategic challenge is to manage the transition without illusion. Trump's rift with Europe and his territorial threats have inadvertently created openings for new alignments. These are open only to states willing to recognise when legacy partnerships yield diminishing returns.
India does not need to abandon Russia quickly, but symbolism-heavy engagements should serve as a warning. Europe's drive to rearm and derisk from China gives India a rare opportunity to embed itself in alternative security networks. This is the moment for India to act decisively, reassessing old assumptions in light of new realities. Proactive adjustment today will determine whether India can shape its strategic future or become captive to narrowing choices.
(The author is a Former Visiting Fellow of the U.S. National Defense University and alumnus of the University of Wyoming. His current research interests include US domestic politics and foreign policy)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
