Actor-turned-politician Vijay has moved closer to achieving his goal - becoming the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. Yes, you can hear a collective sigh of relief among supporters of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) all over the state.
After twists and turns that would put a Kollywood potboiler to shame, TVK chief Vijay can finally show the 120 MLAs-elect in his support to Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar. The extension of support by the VCK and a change of heart by the IUML helped Vijay cross the finish line after much huffing and puffing.
On Friday evening, Vijay's request for an invite to be sworn in as chief minister had been turned down because his numbers were two short of the majority mark of 118. That is because the VCK had postponed its decision to Saturday, while the IUML refused to extend support. Meanwhile, the AMMK accused the TVK of forging the signature of its lone MLA from Mannargudi to make it seem he was extending support. That is an allegation that could still queer the pitch for the TVK. Vijay would do well to keep his fingers crossed and his legal arguments ready.
But through Friday night and early hours of Saturday, one man - Thol Thirumavalavan of the VCK - kept the TVK waiting. The inordinate delay led to speculation that some hard bargaining was taking place behind closed doors, even though the VCK denied any demands were made and said it was because one of its two MLAs was not in Chennai. Its letter of support said ''unconditional support'' but the nature of cabinet formation and early decisions would shed light on what the VCK has got in return for its support. After all, there is nothing called a free lunch in politics.
Will Vijay now provide a stable government? Highly unlikely. To understand what Tamil Nadu politics may look like in the next few months - and why it will be marked by trust deficit - it is important to understand what unfolded behind the scenes.
After Vijay's initial two attempts to convince Lok Bhavan about his numbers failed, the TVK began serious attempts to get the DMK allies - the CPI, CPM, VCK and IUML, all four parties with two MLAs each - on board. In fact, 'proper attempts' would be the right phrase because, according to VCK general secretary Sinthanai Selvan, the TVK in the post-results phase had sent messages over WhatsApp seeking support instead of Vijay personally reaching out to Thirumavalavan.
''How are we supposed to understand seeking support through a WhatsApp message?'' he asked. The indignation was justified. This time, Vijay personally called up Thirumavalavan to seek his support.
Having learnt an important lesson that Gen-Z mode of communication is frowned upon by traditional politicians, the TVK also received help from the Congress top leadership that had a vested interest in making the coalition arrangement work. The Congress had received flak for deserting the DMK and had been labelled as ''backstabbers''. Chairperson of the DMK Parliamentary party, Kanimozhi, even shot off a letter to the Lok Sabha Speaker, informing him that the DMK MPs no longer wanted to be seated alongside the Congress MPs in the House. If Vijay fell short, the Congress too would have been left with egg on its face. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi worked the phones to reach out to Thirumavalavan, the IUML leadership, which is part of the UDF in Kerala, and leaders of the two Left parties. All four were part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) with the Congress in Tamil Nadu.
Stalin was reportedly reluctant to see the four alliance partners go because once the Congress + Left + VCK + IUML supported the TVK, it would give Vijay the reputation of being anti-BJP, a tag the DMK wanted exclusively for itself. The movement of VCK and the IUML could result in a loss of the Dalit and minority votes that otherwise accrue to the DMK.
The developments over the last 48 hours, when the prospect of an alternative in the form of an AIADMK-led government supported by the DMK from the outside gained traction, proved decisive in determining which way the four parties would go. According to CPM general secretary MA Baby, the DMK wanted the two Left parties to support the AIADMK-led formation. The CPI and CPM refused. They realised that if they did not jump ship, they would be indirectly aiding in the formation of such a government. Particularly when the PMK, whose presence is anathema to the VCK, would be part of such a formation. A DMK-AIADMK political arrangement, it was also felt, would not be stable in the long run. The parties, therefore, went back into a huddle to do a SWOT analysis of the decision to support a Vijay-led coalition.
The parties had good reasons to consider the offer favourably. The TVK offer was like a lifeline to the two Left parties, still nursing the wounds of their humiliating defeat in Kerala. The ''outside support'' to the TVK government allows the CPI and CPM to be part of the power structure in a big state like Tamil Nadu. The VCK chief had reason to worry about the erosion in his Dalit vote bank. 28 SC MLAs were elected on the TVK ticket - four of them in general constituencies, and this showed that the youth Dalit vote had shifted significantly to Vijay. In fact, Vijay's decision to appoint 17 members of the SC community as district secretaries had come in for praise. So the TVK offer gave an opportunity to the VCK to move from a role of a supporting ally to a governing partner. For the IUML, this was a chance to be in a power structure in two states.
The red flag could be the relationship of these four parties with the DMK. Unlike the Congress, whose manner of snapping ties with the Dravidian major led to bad blood, the CPI and CPM want to continue their alliance with the DMK. So do the IUML and the VCK. In fact, they have said that they are extending support with Stalin's approval.
On Friday night, when the TVK was waiting for Thirumavalavan's support, he was closeted with the DMK leadership. Will this amount to indirect control of Stalin over matters of administration - a super CM of sorts - is something that would unravel in the days to come. That could lead to friction between the TVK and the alliance partners, as Vijay has for long described the DMK as his party's political enemy.
For now, there is a sense of relief that the political drama that continued for five days after the results is coming to an end. It is therefore apt that Vijay fans are celebrating it with a punch line of Vijay's character in his yet-to-be-released farewell movie 'Jana Nayagan' - ''I am coming''. Vijay's character in the movie is an IPS officer whose name, incidentally, is Thalapathy Vetri Kondan. That is TVK.
(The author is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
