With the Election Commission announcing the dates for the grand finale of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, election fervour has seized the nation. By June 16, when the term of the current Lok Sabha concludes, India will have a new government in place.
Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have finalised their alliances, a factor that could play a decisive role in determining the ultimate winner. It is worth noting that in the 2019 elections, both parties refrained from contesting over a 100 seats each, relying heavily on allies in these constituencies.
Initial Hiccups For Both
Despite initial setbacks, such as the exodus of parties like the Shiv Sena, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U), the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the BJP appears to have regained some ground by forging alliances with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), as well as by the return of the JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Additionally, the Shiv Sena faction recognised by the EC as the true Sena is now in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold.
Similarly, the Congress campaign commenced on a rocky note with the defections of Nitish Kumar and Jayant Chaudhary to the NDA, along with internal splits within the NCP and Shiv Sena, and delays in finalising seat-sharing agreements with Mamata Banerjee.
Nevertheless, the Congress has consolidated its position by securing seat-sharing agreements with the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, gaining the support of Uddhav Thackeray's faction of the Shiv Sena, and forming a coalition with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in five states, excluding Punjab.
The question arises: which party is better prepared in terms of alliances? We've categorised Lok Sabha seats into five types based on the strength of party alliances in 2019: (i) similar, (ii) weaker, (iii) stronger, (iv) lost opportunities, and (v) standalone seats.
Alliance Arithmetic In INDIA
Critics have argued that today's INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc is essentially the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) of yesteryears. However, this criticism is no longer valid. The Congress has retained alliances in 98 seats, which constitutes 18% of the Lok Sabha strength. These seats are primarily in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Jharkhand, and the Northeastern States. The alliances have been in place for a long time and are considered settled. Hence, there is limited potential for growth from these agreements.
In 28 seats - 5% of the Lok Sabha strength - the Congress has weaker alliances, particularly in Karnataka, where the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S), its erstwhile ally, has now aligned with the BJP. Despite winning only one seat in 2019, Congress hopes for significant gains here, banking on the implementation of guarantees by its state government. However, the departure of the JD(S) could dent its prospects, especially in Southern Karnataka.
The Congress, however, has a stronger alliance in 180 seats compared to 2019. These seats are in Delhi (AAP), Uttar Pradesh (SP), Jammu & Kashmir (National Conference), Maharashtra (Uddhav's faction of Shiv Sena), Goa, Chandigarh, and Gujarat (AAP). With just two seats won in 2019 here, the Congress may expect some gains in these areas with the new alliances.
Then, there is a block of 82 seats spread across Bihar and West Bengal. However, the INDIA front seems to be a weak lot here as key erstwhile allies like the JD(U) and the Trinamool Congress have left the grouping. When the JD(U) was part of the INDIA bloc, opinion polls had predicted substantial gains for the alliance in Bihar. A deal with the Trinamool could have led to some gains for the block in West Bengal based on 2019 numbers.
The Congress is in contest in 155 seats without major allies, which make up 29% of the Lok Sabha strength. It will be fighting alone in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. In five states, it faces a bipolar battle with the BJP, where regional parties play no significant role.
NDA's Strengths And Weaknesses
The BJP maintains alliances similar to the 2019 formations in 79 seats, which make up 15% of the Lok Sabha strength. These seats are primarily in Bihar, Jharkhand, and the Northeastern States. There is limited potential for growth from these agreements. Potential losses could have occurred had JD(U) not rejoined the NDA.
In 52 seats, constituting 10% of the Lok Sabha strength, the BJP has weaker alliances. These seats are in Punjab and Tamil Nadu, where the Akalis and the AIADMK, respectively, have exited the NDA. Although these exits may not significantly impact the BJP's standalone fortunes in these states, they do complicate the party's strategy to gain traction in southern regions.
On the other hand, the BJP has stitched up stronger alliances for 181 seats in comparison to 2019. These include constituencies in Andhra Pradesh (TDP), Karnataka (JD-S), Maharashtra (NCP), and Uttar Pradesh (RLD and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party).
The BJP had an opportunity to expand the NDA in Odisha and Telangana, but talks in that direction have not materialised. These states collectively account for 38 seats, which is 7% of the Lok Sabha strength.
On the other hand, in 193 seats, which represent 35% of the Lok Sabha, the BJP lacks strong allies and will contest independently. These seats are in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Gujarat, Haryana, Goa, Telangana, and Kerala. In most of these states, the party faces a bipolar contest with the Congress.
Will Votes Flow Seamlessly?
Both parties have sealed alliances on roughly the same number of seats. The opportunity lost, however, is higher for the Congress (82 seats) than the BJP (38 seats). The BJP has comparatively weaker alliances in a higher number of seats than the Congress - 52 versus 28.
In any alliance, a seamless transfer of votes is crucial. Often, the post-poll vote share of an alliance is lower than the combined pre-poll vote share of the individual parties due to leakages. It remains to be seen how many NCP supporters will side with the BJP in Maharashtra, or whether an AAP voter will back the Congress in Delhi and Gujarat.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.