West Bengal Poll Draws Over $2 Million In Global Bets On Platforms India Has Banned

With West Bengal heading to the polls on Wednesday in the first of a two-phase election, the second phase on April 29 and counting on May 4, a striking data point has emerged from the world of online prediction markets. On Polymarket, the US-based platform that lets users bet real money on real-world outcomes, over $2 million has been traded on the "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" market, making it by far the most actively traded Indian state election market on the platform.

The market currently has BJP as the marginal frontrunner. Traders are currently assigning a 52 per cent chance to a BJP victory, with Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) sitting at 47 per cent, according to screenshots circulating on Indian social media. The Communist Party of India (CPI) is considered a near-impossibility, trading at less than one per cent.

The data was highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) by the personal finance account Save Invest Repeat, which noted that West Bengal now holds the highest traded volume among all Indian state elections on the platform.

West Bengal state election currently has the highest traded volume among all Indian state elections.

Very interesting data point from Polymarket.

More than $2 million in volume now. pic.twitter.com/SkGqyLuJVy

— Save Invest Repeat 📈 (@InvestRepeat) April 21, 2026

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu heads to the polls tomorrow, but trading interest remains muted, with the contract value on Polymarket at a relatively modest $370,000.

What Is A Prediction Market?

Unlike opinion polls or exit surveys, prediction markets aggregate the views of thousands of traders who put actual money behind their beliefs. A price of 53.5 cents for BJP, for instance, implies that the market collectively believes there is roughly a 53.5 per cent chance that BJP wins. If a trader buys at that price and BJP wins, they receive one dollar per share, pocketing the difference as profit.

Proponents argue that because real money is at stake, these markets tend to be more accurate than traditional surveys. Polymarket claims to be accurate more than 94 per cent of the time, an entire month before an outcome is known.

A Critical Caveat: This Is Illegal In India

Here is the crucial detail that much of the social media chatter glosses over.

Prediction markets, by any name or under any garb, are banned in India. The country officially disallowed even global platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi in 2025, under the new Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA). Under this law, any platform facilitating wagering on real world events, including elections, is prohibited from operating in India or accepting Indian users. Indian citizens who attempt to access or trade on such platforms do so in violation of Indian law.

The trading volume observed on Polymarket's West Bengal market, therefore, originates almost entirely from users outside India, primarily from the United States and Europe, where prediction markets operate in a legal grey area or are formally regulated.

A Tight Race, On Paper

The Election Commission announced the two-phase schedule on March 15, with voting on April 23 and April 29 for all 294 seats, and counting on May 4.The contest is a straight fight between the BJP, which is seeking to unseat Mamata Banerjee's decade-long dominance, and the TMC, which has governed the state since 2011. Whether global traders with no stake in Bengali politics have correctly read the mood of the state's voters will become clear on the morning of 4 May.

(NDTV does not endorse, encourage, or facilitate participation in prediction markets. Such platforms are banned in India under PROGA.)