The 7 X Factors In Bihar Assembly Election 2025

Bihar faces a unique assembly election again. It is the first election to be held in the state after the Election Commission (EC) carried out the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise - a process the EC described as necessary for updating the electoral rolls.

But the SIR exercise ran into controversy after the Opposition alleged it would exclude genuine voters, and took the matter to the Supreme Court.

The last assembly election in late 2020 was also unique due to the Covid pandemic, which swept across the globe and affected nearly every nation including India. The tragic exodus of thousands and thousands of migrant workers from Bihar walking home amid the Covid lockdown had become a defining issue in the election back then.

This time, while the SIR exercise controversy is a big issue, it has gradually changed into a topic of routine political mudslinging with leaders like Congress MP Rahul Gandhi alleging "vote chori (theft)".

Unemployment Top Election Issue

The real issue in Bihar this election is unemployment. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the BJP and Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar increasingly face pressures from young and first-time voters who are demanding jobs.

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to have sensed this. He has made employment for young people the No. 1 issue in his election campaign.

Jan Suraaj, the outfit formed by former election strategy consultant Prashant Kishor, has also taken up the issue of creating jobs for the state's young population as a top priority.

Opposition parties have alleged widespread discontentment among young people against the ruling alliance, which would put the alliance at risk of facing strong anti-incumbency.

Out-Migration

While a large number of migrant workers from Bihar are present across the country, the state is seeing an alarming rise in the number of workers leaving due to lack of opportunities in the state.

It would not be wrong to say out-migration from Bihar is a result of unemployment, the main issue.

Bihar's economy is sometimes called a remittance economy due to the high rate of out-migration; however, migration streams and patterns have changed mostly from rural to urban locations, Patna-based researcher Reena Singh said in a study in April.

The EC today announced Bihar will vote in two phases on November 6 and 11. This is after Bihar's most important festival, Chhath Puja, during which a majority of migrant workers return home to celebrate with their families.

It shows the EC optimising the voting schedule for the maximum turnout possible. Votes will be counted on November 14.

Corruption

While not a new election issue, the entry of Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj has given a new angle to look at this issue, especially by young voters. Prashant Kishor's message to them seems to suggest they should reject corrupt leaders who have been in politics all their lives.

For example, he has been aiming surgically at some ruling leaders like state minister Ashok Choudhary, who he alleged amassed illegal assets worth Rs 200 crore and took huge commissions on government contracts. In response, the minister sent a Rs 100 crore defamation notice against the Jan Suraaj founder.

The entire episode had the effect of broadcasting Prashant Kishor as someone who is different - a key to finding support among young voters.

Nitish Kumar received a lot of support from among female voters for his government's decision to ban liquor in the state in 2016. Years later, however, allegations of liquor mafia appearing across the state have become common, turning them into campaign ammunition for the Opposition.

Special Intensive Revision (SIR)

The first SIR exercise in the country received widespread criticism from Opposition leaders, the most vocal being Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, who alleged the EC in collusion with the ruling BJP facilitated the addition and deletion of names in voter lists.

The EC refuted the allegations as malicious. However, Rahul Gandhi kept pressing on, even using words like "vote chori (theft)."

After the EC published the final voter roll following the SIR exercise, the BJP launched a scathing attack on the Congress.

"This so-called 'vote chori' narrative is nothing but a sham - a pretext to mask impending electoral defeats and undermine India's faith in the democratic process. A page straight out of George Soros's playbook, which Rahul Gandhi foolishly believes can resurrect his beleaguered party," BJP leader Amit Malviya said.

In the voter roll revision done after a gap of 22 years, 65 lakh voters had been removed from the draft rolls, including those who had died, permanently moved out of Bihar, or got registered as voters in multiple locations.

In the final rolls, the number of voters rose by 18 lakh compared to the draft list.

Women Voters

Nitish Kumar's liquor ban policy made him a favourite among women. The families of alcoholic men could not have asked for a better policy.

In addition to this, Nitish Kumar has the advantage of maturity in age - he has over 30 more years of experience than his nearest rival, Tejashwi Yadav. This advantage has up to an extent helped cancel out the anti-incumbency pressure that Nitish Kumar gets from young voters.

Other popular welfare schemes for women include enhanced social security pensions, financial aid of Rs 10,000 each to 75 lakh women, and infrastructure development projects.

Education Quality

Like unemployment, the declining quality of education in schools and colleges across Bihar has alarmed experts. This problem is compounded by frequent question paper leaks.

The most infamous paper leak case concerned the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) 2024 question paper, which was stolen from a National Testing Agency (NTA) trunk in Hazaribagh and sold to medical aspirants.

The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Bihar's Economic Offences Unit (EOU) arrested multiple suspects, including alleged masterminds and key orchestrators.

Higher education students, who are essentially young voters, see such incidents as betrayal of their trust in the system, which is supposed to keep competition healthy and fair.

Illegal Immigrants

The BJP has raised the issue of a large presence of illegal immigrants in the Seemanchal region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also explicitly stated the dangers that this poses to demographics.

illegal immigration especially from Bangladesh has been among the most important political causes and national security concerns in the country. Over the last few months, India has seen crackdowns at regional levels to identify Bangladeshis living illegally.

Opposition parties including the Congress have alleged the claim about illegal immigrants in Seemanchal is a lie to polarise voters.

In the final electoral roll, the minority-dominated Seemanchal region recorded the highest voter deletion rate (7.7 per cent) among Bihar's key regions. This region comprises four districts - Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria - and has an average Muslim population of 48 per cent.