Faction Wars: How Internal Rifts Are Shaping Punjab's Polls

With the 2027 Punjab assembly elections approaching, the state's political parties seem more focused on fighting each other from within than taking on their rivals. Congress is caught in an open turf war between two of its senior leaders, the AAP is racing to contain anti-incumbency and internal dissent, the BJP is dealing with resignations and a rural disconnect, and the Shiromani Akali Dal is trying to work out who it can even ally with. Before the real contest begins, all four parties appear to be doing a fair amount of damage to themselves.

How Congress's Ego War May Hand Punjab Back To AAP

The Congress high command's failure to resolve the standoff between Punjab unit chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring and former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi points to a deeper organisational problem than ordinary political friction.

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"Despite back-to-back interventions, marathon conciliation meetings led by state in-charge Bhupesh Baghel, and stern ultimatums issued by AICC General Secretary KC Venugopal, Delhi's central leadership has proven entirely ineffective at enforcing discipline or constructing a unified power-sharing formula. Instead of reigning in personal ambitions, the high command's paralysis has allowed the turf war to escalate into open rebellion, complete with boycotted party events, parallel regional strategy sessions, and public poster wars," says Professor Ashutosh Kumar, Head of the Department of Political Science, Panjab University.

Psephologists say the bigger risk for Congress lies in the conspiracy theories now circulating between the Warring and Channi camps.

"By weaponising fears of internal "sleeper cells" and trading accusations of sabotage, both factions, led by Channi and Raja Warring, are effectively doing the opposition's heavy lifting. Channi's faction frames Warring's organisational control as an attempt to sideline Punjab's Dalit leadership, while Warring's loyalists view Channi's insistence as mere greed for the plum post," says Chandigarh-based psephologist Professor Gurmeet Singh.

Analysts say this mutual suspicion has spread down to the grassroots, with party workers increasingly wary of their own colleagues, undermining the trust a cohesive campaign depends on.

So what does this mean for the election? Experts believe the ruling Aam Aadmi Party stands to gain the most from Congress's troubles.

"This is self-inflicted warfare. Though AAP itself is facing localised anti-incumbency and pushback over law-and-order issues, the Congress infighting will offer it a vital breathing room that otherwise systematically dismantles the party's own credibility," says a senior Congress leader who did not wish to be named.

The AAP has already begun using the Congress chaos to its advantage, telling voters that backing Congress would be a wasted vote, a message that could well pull undecided voters back towards the ruling party.

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Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has repeatedly targeted Congress at his rallies, joking that if Congress leaders were made to sit in a rickshaw, they would still argue over who gets the driver's seat.

"See how the Congress leaders love each other. Randhawa and Channi are at loggerheads, Channi and Bajwa are not on the same page, and Channi and Warring are waging an open war against each other." Bhagwant Mann's remark on Congress has gone viral on social media.

AAP's Ticket Wars And A Defection That Could Help The BJP

While the Channi-Warring feud may work in the AAP's favour, the ruling party is fighting its own battle against anti-incumbency, despite a string of welfare schemes on offer to Punjab's voters.

The AAP's response has been to run parallel constituency, or halqa, in-charges alongside sitting MLAs, a high-stakes strategy overseen by state chief Aman Arora. His team has carried out independent performance audits and reshuffled coordinators across key assembly seats to find possible replacement candidates and tighten discipline within the party.

This corporate-style review is aimed at addressing a clear slide in support, with the AAP's urban vote share falling from 42 per cent in 2022 to around 36 per cent in the most recent local body and municipal polls. But putting two sets of coordinators in charge of all 117 assembly constituencies has already created friction between sitting MLAs and the newly appointed in-charges over who controls party tickets.

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"Denying tickets to the sitting MLAs and creating competition between the parallel constituency in-charges will fuel dissidence and leaders could cross over to rival parties," says Chandigarh-based senior journalist Rajinder Jadon.

Adding to the AAP's troubles is the departure of former national general secretary Sandeep Pathak, seen as the architect of the party's organisational machinery in Punjab, who has now joined the BJP.

"Of course, Pathak's transition will give the BJP direct and actionable intelligence. The AAP fears that Pathak can help poach the dissidents besides insider insight into booth-management models and ground campaign operations," Jadon adds.

Urban Gains, Internal Mutiny: The BJP's Balancing Act

Sandeep Pathak's move may hand the BJP valuable insight into the AAP's booth-level operations, but the party's own expansion in Punjab tells a more complicated story. Even as its urban vote share climbs, its organisational structure is coming under strain from factional friction.

A recent restructuring of the party's state unit has triggered a wave of resignations. Senior leaders who have quit include Sukhminderpal Singh Grewal, Chetan Mohan Joshi, Dr Jagmohan Singh Raju and Maninder Kapyal, the last of whom resigned in protest after the party named a new Sangrur district president. The sudden removal of five other district chiefs, in Faridkot, Hoshiarpur, Khanna, Sri Muktsar Sahib and Sangrur-1, has sparked open rebellion within party ranks.

These changes have also exposed a growing rift between the party's traditional ideological base and the Congress turncoats now within its fold, among them Captain Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar, Preneet Kaur and Manpreet Badal.

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Beyond party cadre politics, analysts point to a possible tie-up with the Shiromani Akali Dal as a way forward for the BJP. The SAD's municipal vote share stands at 8.98 per cent, and combined with the BJP's own urban vote share, the total would top 26.5 per cent, putting real pressure on Congress.

SAD's Long Decline And Its Search For Allies

The Shiromani Akali Dal, once a dominant force across rural Punjab, is facing a decade-long slide. Its vote share fell from 34.73 per cent in 2012 to 25.24 per cent in 2017, and dropped further still to an all-time low of 18.38 per cent in 2022.

Recent municipal election figures show the decline has now reached urban and semi-urban areas too, with the party polling around 9 per cent in cities and 11 per cent in semi-urban towns. Of greater concern to the leadership is the visible drift of its core Panthic voter base towards newer players such as Akali Dal Waris Punjab De. There is speculation that the SAD may look to breakaway factions, including Waris Punjab De, to rebuild a united Panthic vote.

What This Means For 2027

With the 2027 assembly elections drawing closer, Punjab's political parties face a common challenge: containing dissidence, uniting their factions and holding together for the campaign ahead. The ruling AAP still commands support for its welfare schemes, but faces rising anti-incumbency and the risk of losing Panthic votes after the Akal Takht's edict against the government and Bhagwant Mann. Congress retains a loyal traditional vote bank, yet risks squandering it through open factionalism and internal sabotage.

The BJP, meanwhile, continues to grow in urban areas but remains held back by a weak rural presence and internal dissent. The Shiromani Akali Dal, for its part, suffers from existential fragmentation. In the end, the party that goes on to win in 2027 may simply be the one that manages to keep its own house in order.