Karnataka Was A Message. Rahul Gandhi Tests New Playbook For Lok Sabha Battle

The Karnataka leadership swap - DK Shivakumar for Siddaramaiah, a switch in the making since November last year - was pushed past the finishing line by Rahul Gandhi, sources told NDTV Friday. Rahul Gandhi, sources said, spoke to both men on Monday and Tuesday, with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, party boss Mallikarjun Kharge, and General Secretary KC Venugopal.

The result was a 35-minute one-on-one in which Rahul Gandhi persuaded Siddaramaiah to resign, arguing the veteran politician - one of the Congress' most high-profile OBC faces - had to look beyond the state and at the national picture,

The 'big picture' message was the 2029 Lok Sabha election. But Siddaramaiah argued the Congress' best chance at re-election was with him in charge. DKS, he said, could take charge of a fresh government in 2028. But Gandhi was adamant, sources said, displaying the same awareness that helped the Congress resolve the impasse in the Kerala chief minister race.

The Kerala example

The party recorded a big win in the April/May election but was then mired in talks for two weeks, with VD Satheesan, KC Venugopal, and Ramesh Chennithala on the chief minister shortlist. In that instance, Rahul Gandhi backed Venugopal. And his close ties with the Gandhi family, as well as his position as the MLAs' choice, suggested his appointment was a given.

NDTV Explains | Satheesan, Not Venugopal. Why Congress Picked The Man It Did

But as it became clear Satheesan was preferred by the voters, and key ally Indian Union Muslim League, Rahul Gandhi accepted the verdict and changed plans. The Gandhi siblings met Venugopal in an extended meeting to convey and explain the decision, which included, as in the case of Karnataka, consultations with all relevant stakeholders.

In both cases the quiet influence of Priyanka Gandhi was also noted, sources said.

RECAP | Congress Rejects Karnataka Buzz, But Insiders Reveal A Priyanka Gandhi Push

Congress insiders told NDTV the Karnataka and Kerala examples indicate the party's core leadership - essentially Kharge, the Gandhi family, and trusted aides like Venugopal - is now more willing to chop and change plans, particularly when circumstances go against favourites.

The Rajasthan 'what if' moment

In 2022, for example, when the Congress was in power in Rajasthan, there was a showdown between then-chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his much younger deputy, Sachin Pilot.

Sonia Gandhi, then the Congress president, wanted to promote Pilot, who many in the party recognised as a more dynamic leader, one who could ward off anti-incumbency ahead of the 2023 election and attract voters from the Gujjar community.

RECAP | Sachin Pilot Revives War With Ashok Gehlot Months Before Rajasthan Polls

But Gehlot was a Congress veteran with close links to the party high command and refused to stand down, triggering a weeks-long face-off that included Pilot decamping with a group of MLAs to neighbouring BJP-ruled Haryana,.

Sachin Pilot (L) and Ashok Gehlot (File)

The parallels between Rajasthan 2022 and Karnataka 2026 are easy to see.

But the Congress dithered then, causing irreparable rifts that cost the party the 2023 election. There has also been talk that had the party acted as decisively then as now, it might still be ruling Rajasthan.

Chhattisgarh too?

A similar story unfolded in Chhattisgarh after the party won the 2018 election, with Bhupesh Baghel and his rival TS Singh Deo at odds over a rumoured 'rotational chief minister' deal.

But whenever the party HQ tried to enforce the swap, there would be pressure from Baghel that caused and deepened a divide between the two leaders. Baghel dismissed talk of rotation; he called it a ploy to 'destabilise his government'.

Bhupesh Baghel (L) and TS Singh Deo (File)

That divide grew and festered till the next election and the Congress was then thumped; the party that won 69 of the Assembly's 90 seats five years earlier managed only 35 this time.

RECAP | Baghel "First In Line" To Be Chief Minister, Says Deputy Singhdeo

Again, the parallels to Karnataka 2026 and the Siddaramaiah vs DKS spat are uncanny.

The Karnataka 'game of thrones'

The two reportedly had a power-sharing deal after the election, also in 2023, but one that was never publicly acknowledged by either man, or even the party. And over the next 2.5 years the two, and their supporters, traded plenty of jabs and jibes.

DK Shivakumar (L) and Siddaramaiah (File)

The half-way mark was in November 2025 and it was flagged by DKS' camp in a display of public pressure on the Congress' central leadership not unlike Pilot's push in Rajasthan and Singh Deo's in Chhattisgarh.

RECAP | "High Command Asked": Siddaramaiah Gets Emotional After Resigning

But this time the difference was that the Congress listened, and acted.

It was not an easy process. Both Siddaramaiah and DKS have strong claims to be chief minister, with significant vote banks behind them and the support of MLA factions.

What changed?

The Congress leadership of today, sources said, has evolved under Rahul Gandhi, who operates with the experience of Kharge behind him and with information from a feedback system devised by Venugopal.

That is shortening decision times and, potentially, improving them too.

Sources said that while Rahul Gandhi now always consults Kharge, he is equally reliant on his own feedback system - Priyanka Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi - and every decision is now made with the 2029 Lok Sabha election in mind.

There are also, of course, the 16 state elections to be ticked off till then.