El Nino Likely To Result In Deficient Indian Monsoon, Raises Crop Concerns

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast downward to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the country perilously close to a deficient monsoon. According to the forecast, there is a 60 per cent probability that rainfall will be deficient this year. For a nation where nearly 52 per cent of cultivated land still depends on rainfall, the stakes could hardly be higher.

The Return Of El Nino

The world's weather systems are once again being shaped by events unfolding thousands of kilometers away in the Pacific Ocean. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects an 82 per cent chance that El Nino will develop between May and July 2026, rising to an overwhelming 96 per cent probability by winter.

Scientists are increasingly worried that this may not be an ordinary El Nino. Climate models suggest it could evolve into a strong or even very strong event - comparable to the rare "Super El Ninos" of 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Historically, around 60 per cent of El Nino years have brought deficient or below-normal monsoon rainfall to India. The concern isn't only about how much rain falls, but about when and where it falls. "Monsoon forecast is indicating more impact of El Nino. However, the number is not important, but the distribution of rainfall is," says Professor Raghu Murtugudde of the University of Maryland and IIT Kanpur. "Models are not predicting a pretty picture, and we can expect a patchy distribution. There will be more numbers as well as longer break-monsoon conditions."

Such interruptions can devastate agriculture. Crops can survive brief dry periods, but prolonged breaks in rainfall during critical growth stages can sharply reduce yields.

A Hotter Future

Meteorologists warn that the brewing El Nino may be strong enough to reshape global temperature records. GP Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, believes the event could rival the famous Super El Nino of four decades ago. "The numerical model forecasts that the evolving El Nino event could match the Super-El Nino seen four decades ago," he says, adding, "accordingly, 2027 may exceed 2024 for the warmest year on record, as the impact on global temperatures typically comes the year after its peak."

If that happens, India could face the combination of extreme heat and inadequate rainfall. Professor Murtugudde said, "There are chances that 2026 will make it to the list of the record-warming years, with 2027 surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record." The consequences could extend beyond temperature records. Delayed monsoon progress may trigger humid heatwaves across northwest India, particularly if monsoon winds fail to arrive on schedule.

The Farmer's Dilemma

Across India's villages, the monsoon is more than a weather event. It is an economic lifeline. For millions of farmers, every week of delayed rainfall can alter planting decisions, increase costs, and reduce harvests.

Food policy analyst Devinder Sharma warns, "2026 is going to be a testing ground for India amid climate change and the present geopolitical situation." He says, "This is a deadly combination for India, especially for agriculture."

Meanwhile, Dr GV Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture argues that rainfall distribution matters far more than seasonal totals. "The problem is not just the total reduction in rainfall, but the way the rainfall is distributed," he explains.
"The delay in the onset of rainfall, along with dry spells that may occur in between, will be the more serious issues."

He urges farmers to adapt by reducing water-intensive crops such as rice and shifting toward pulses, oilseeds, and millets. Crop diversification, improving soil organic matter, and strengthening water retention in farms may become critical survival strategies.

Water: The Silent Crisis

A weak monsoon threatens more than crops. Lower rainfall means less groundwater recharge, shrinking reservoirs, reduced river flows, and growing competition for water among cities, farms, and industries.

Dr. Anjal Prakash of FLAME University warns that a monsoon delivering just 90 per cent of normal rainfall could trigger widespread water stress. "A below-normal monsoon at just 90 per cent of the Long Period Average poses an immediate threat to India's water security," he says.

Can The Indian Ocean Save Monsoon?

There is one possible source of hope. Meteorologists are watching the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another major climate phenomenon that occasionally offsets El Nino's drying influence on India. Forecasts suggest a positive IOD may emerge later in the season.

Historically, positive IOD phases have helped rescue Indian monsoons from severe El Nino impacts. However, experts caution that the current signals may not be strong enough to fully neutralize a powerful El Nino. In other words, the Indian Ocean may provide support- but probably not a complete rescue.