India Likely To See Below-Average Monsoon Rains In 2026. Reason: El Nino

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon downward, predicting that India will receive only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, placing the season firmly in the "below normal" category. 

This marks a further downgrade from the IMD's April projection of 92% of LPA. The update comes as concerns mount over the developing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, which are historically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India. 

Dr M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), stated, "The average Monsoon rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon Season 2026 between June and September, 2026 is expected to be 90% of the Long Period Average." He noted that this is lower than the earlier April forecast of 92%.

Regional Outlook

• Northwest India: Expected to receive normal rainfall (94-106% of LPA).
• Central India, South Peninsular India, Northeast India, and the Monsoon Core Zone: All likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
• The monsoon core zone, which covers key rainfed agricultural regions, is particularly concerning as it is projected to receive less than 94% of LPA.

El Nino Factor

The downgrade is linked to the expected development of El Nino conditions. Dr Mohapatra noted that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to evolve into an El Nino phase during the southwest monsoon season. 

El Nino, characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, disrupts the Walker Circulation and often suppresses monsoon activity by weakening cross-equatorial flow and shifting rainfall patterns eastward. 

A "super" or strong El Nino event is a particular concern this year, with potential impacts intensifying in the latter half of the season (July-September). 

This would be the first below-normal monsoon forecast in several years, raising memories of past deficient seasons that strained water resources and agriculture.

June Specifics

IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that June 2026 is likely to see below-normal rainfall across the country (less than 92% of LPA). Maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal over many parts of India, except in some areas of Central and Northwest India.

On a positive note, conditions are favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala next week, according to Dr. Mohapatra.

The southwest monsoon (June-September) delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is critical for agriculture, particularly the kharif season. A below-normal monsoon, especially with deficient rains in central, peninsular, and northeastern regions, could significantly impact:

• Sowing and yields of rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds.
• Water availability in reservoirs and rivers.
• Rural livelihoods and food inflation pressures.

This forecast comes at a sensitive time for Indian agriculture, which remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains. While Northwest India may offer some stability, widespread below-normal rainfall in core agricultural belts raises concerns about potential drought-like conditions in vulnerable areas.

IMD officials will continue to monitor the evolving ENSO situation and issue updated forecasts.