Global Aid Cuts Could Lead To 22.6 Million Additional Deaths By 2030 In 93 Countries: Lancet Study

Slashing global aid, particularly by the US and European countries, will reverse decades of progress in fighting diseases, and lead to 22.6 million additional deaths in people of all age groups, including children under five years of age, by 2030, warned a new study published in The Lancet Global Health on Tuesday. The peer-reviewed study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), in Spain, showed that the additional deaths will be across 93 low- and middle- income countries, including India. The figures also include 5.4 million children under the age of five.

Severe cuts to official development assistance (ODA) will affect Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 38 of the 93 countries analysed, the most.

In Asia, 21 countries, including India, are at risk, followed by 12 countries each in Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa. Ten countries in Europe, including Ukraine, will also be affected.

“Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years. Budget decisions made today in donor countries will have irreversible consequences for millions of people for years to come,” said Davide Rasella, Coordinator of the study, ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal, and at the Brazilian Institute of Collective Health.

The research also reveals that between 2002 and 2021, the ODA helped reduce global child mortality by 39 per cent; prevented HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 per cent, with a 56 per cent reduction in deaths from both malaria and nutritional deficiencies. It also increased additional global health outcomes in these 93 countries, which are home to 75 per cent of the world's population.

The international aid fell for the first time in six years in 2024. The US, UK, France, and Germany significantly reduced their ODA contributions for the first time in nearly 30 years.

To understand the impact of the fund cuts, the study modelled two scenarios from 2025 through 2030.

In case of a mild defunding scenario with a 10.6 per cent yearly reduction (corresponding to the average reduction of the last two years, 2024–2025), the cuts could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children younger than five years.

However, a severe defunding scenario, based on $32 billion (15.1 per cent) in ODA cuts from 2024 to 2025, could cause 5.4 million children younger than age five years to die as part of more than 22.6 million additional deaths of all ages.

“These findings are a warning of the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking -- and they are an urgent call to action to all of us to prevent this human suffering,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, who supported the study.

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