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Kartik Narayan, CEO, Apna.co 

"The increase in the EPFO wage ceiling to ₹25,000 marks a significant step towards expanding social-security coverage across India's workforce. For recruitment platforms like ours, it means a larger share of jobs and workers can come within the formal social-security framework. At the same time, employers particularly smaller businesses will need to factor higher statutory benefits into their hiring and compensation decisions. In the near term, this may influence how employers structure entry-level salaries and benefits, but over time, wider social-security coverage can strengthen the value of formal employment for both workers and businesses."

Atul Mehta, CEO Pay10 India

"UPI's zero MDR era did what it set out to do, it made India the world's benchmark for real-time payments. But for merchants, especially those scaling beyond small-ticket transactions, sustainable payment infrastructure matters just as much as free infrastructure. A calibrated MDR, with the small-merchant and P2P protections intact, lets banks, fintechs and payment providers keep investing in the reliability, fraud prevention and settlement speed that merchants actually depend on day to day. At Pay10, we work closely with merchants navigating both domestic and cross-border payments, and what they consistently ask for isn't zero cost, it's predictability and infrastructure they can trust. A well-calibrated MDR framework, if it stays proportionate, supports exactly that. And as India positions UPI as a model other markets look to replicate, a self-sustaining domestic ecosystem only strengthens that story."

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The Thesis
The Fed's first hike since July 2023 - 25bps to 3.75-4.00% - triggered FII selling of ₹3,208 crore, but DII buyers absorbed every rupee and lifted the Nifty 500 0.54% as India VIX crashed to 12.16. The conviction basket positions for post-hike divergence: downstream refiners gain from Brent's pullback off its September peak, export-oriented names pocket rupee softness, and PSU infrastructure capex runs independent of global liquidity conditions.

Where We're Concentrated
Exposure clusters at three reinforcing themes: refining margin recovery as Brent retreats from ~$109 toward $104, compressing feedstock costs for domestic refiners; export resilience where USD billing converts a softer rupee into direct margin expansion for home textiles and healthcare services; and domestic staples plus PSU capex carrying zero EM-rate sensitivity. The thesis bends if Brent re-accelerates past $110 - squeezing import-cost names - or if India 10-year G-sec yields push materially above 7.1% and tighten cost of capital across the infrastructure chain.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Chennai Petroleum Corporation
Brent's retreat from the September peak compresses feedstock costs; domestic fuel margins expand as crude eases toward $104.
Sagility
USD-billed healthcare services earn a natural hedge as the rupee softens against a dollar strengthened by the Fed hike.
LT Foods
Domestic branded rice demand is structurally detached from EM rate risk, insulating margins as global liquidity tightens.
Welspun Living
Export-facing home textiles invoice in dollars; rupee softness directly widens margins on US and European retail orders.
Engineers India
The domestic capex cycle in refinery and gas infrastructure runs independent of global rate tightening or FII flow cycles.
One Thing to Watch
India 10-year G-sec holding at 7.1% Monday's RBI bond auction (₹250bn) is the first live test of domestic appetite post-Fed hike - clean absorption keeps the rate-benign backdrop intact for the capex and consumer picks; a weak bid sharpens the cost-of-capital headwind across the basket.

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Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"US employment remained firm as jobless claims fell to 196,000, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index stayed expansionary at 37.8, supporting economic confidence and crypto risk appetite. However, rising input prices and potential Fed tightening could restrict liquidity. US housing starts fell 2.6%, indicating pressure from borrowing costs and potentially easing yields. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% and paused some bond sales, supporting liquidity. Brent near $104 and lower Treasury yields provided relief. Overall, the crypto outlook remains balanced.

Bitcoin trades near $76,680 in short-term consolidation, with daily indicators showing a mixed but constructive structure. Immediate support lies around $76,000-$76,100, while $76,850-$77,000 forms resistance. Holding support could stabilize momentum.

Ethereum trades near $2,456 within a constructive but range-bound daily structure. Immediate support sits around $2,435-$2,440, while $2,460-$2,470 forms resistance before the psychological $2,500 level. Holding support could maintain stability, although Futures traders may assess daily volume, open interest, and funding before treating a resistance test as a confirmed breakout.

NEAR trades near $3.25 with a strong bullish daily structure, although RSI near 78 signals stretched momentum. Immediate support sits around $3.03-$3.10, while $3.30-$3.40 forms resistance. Holding support may preserve momentum; losing it could initially expose secondary support around $2.60-$2.65.

Global risk appetite improved as the Nasdaq gained 1.69%, the S&P 500 rose 1.14%, and the Dow advanced 0.61%, while the VIX dropped 12.82% to 15.44. Asian equities were broadly positive, led by the KOSPI at 1.87%, alongside gains in the Hang Seng, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai. Gold fell 0.31%, and oil declined 1.01%, easing defensive demand and inflation pressure. Rising equities, lower volatility and easing commodity prices improved investor confidence, supporting continued participation in crypto markets.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $295.98 million in daily net outflows, following the previous session's $450.33 million withdrawal, while Ethereum ETFs lost $224.11 million. Bitcoin nevertheless stabilized near $76,680, and Ether held around $2,456, showing that ETF redemptions did not produce equivalent price declines. Spot buying, derivatives positioning, short-covering, and improving wider risk sentiment can offset institutional selling. Similarly, when strong inflows return, profit-taking, exchange supply, and resistance near key levels may delay an immediate price response across crypto markets."

Amresh Acharya, MD & CEO, Loylty Rewardz 

On UPI-based credit card payments and MDR

Credit card MDR has always been in play. It exists because when you use a credit card, the bank is pre-funding the merchant. Those economics have always existed and continue to exist regardless of what has been announced for other UPI transactions.

For a customer using their credit card on UPI, nothing changes. The customer was never being charged to begin with and that stays the same. Whether someone prefers a credit card for the points, the credit float, or whatever else, that is their choice and the UPI MDR framework does not affect it at all.

On the broader UPI MDR announcement

Any infrastructure that delivers real value has a cost and payment infrastructure is no different. UPI has been a remarkable success but it needs to be economically sustainable over the long term. The ecosystem bears significant costs in running this infrastructure from peak load management to reconciliation, and merchants on the other side save considerably by moving away from cash handling, which carries its own costs in terms of time, risk, and logistics.

To my mind, this is a first step toward the market finding its own balance. MDR is not a new concept. It exists in credit cards for sound economic reasons and the market has absorbed it. The same principle applies here. Frameworks like this are how ecosystems mature, and a sustainable payment infrastructure ultimately benefits everyone who depends on it.

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin recovered toward $77,000 alongside US equities after the Fed raised rates to 3.75-4%. Officials signaled at least one more hike this year, while inflation is now not expected to return to target until 2029. ETF flows remain weak and volatile, with Bitcoin and Ethereum funds seeing $1.11 billion in combined outflows over two days. At the same time, corporate treasury demand has also slowed sharply, with only 5,900 BTC purchased over three months versus 89,000 in a single month last year. However, bullish views from JPMorgan, Bloomberg and Grayscale are supporting the market sentiment. Bitcoin now faces resistance at $78,600, with $75,000 as key support.

BTC shrugged off the Federal Reserve's first rate increase since July 2023, a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4% , holding steady near $76K. That resilience points to underlying spot demand, even as ETF outflows hint Investors being caution. Regulatory headwinds compounded the picture after the Senate rejected the Clarity Act, leaving digital assets without the clarity markets had hoped for. Still, falling oil prices offered a silver lining, easing inflation pressures and giving the Fed more room to maneuver on future rate decisions.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold extended its rebound to around $4,350/oz, holding most of Thursday's 2% gain as softer oil prices eased inflation pressure and pulled Treasury yields back below 5%. Silver outperformed, rising 3% to above $65/oz. Crude remained the key driver, slipping toward $101/barrel as Saudi Arabia's efforts to reroute supplies around its damaged East-West pipeline began showing results. However, President Trump's comments on resuming attacks in the Middle East kept geopolitical concerns elevated. The rupee was last near ₹95.5-96.1/$, while India's August CPI rose to 4.82%, its highest since December 2024.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst Delta Exchange 

Bitcoin is holding near the $76,000-$77,000 region despite a hawkish Federal Reserve, the Senate setback for the CLARITY Act and weak ETF demand. The resilience is notable given that spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $592 million in combined outflows earlier this week.
Technically, Bitcoin is attempting to build a short-term recovery structure after defending the $75,000 area. On the one-hour chart, price has moved back above key short-term moving averages, but the $77,100-$77,600 zone remains the main resistance cluster. A sustained break above this region would improve the recovery setup and could open the way toward $78,000 and higher. On the downside, $76,000 remains the first important support, followed by the $75,400-$75,000 area.
Ethereum is also recovering, trading around the $2,460 region after bouncing from the $2,360-$2,400 support zone. Resistance is concentrated around $2,480-$2,500, with a breakout potentially exposing $2,520-$2,560.
For now, the market appears to be consolidating rather than reversing decisively. Buyers are defending support, but stronger follow-through is needed before the broader trend improves.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 extended its gains for a second consecutive session on Thursday, rising 53 points to close at 23,270.60, supported by broad-based buying across realty, pharma, auto and metal stocks, which helped offset weakness in banking counters. Global cues have turned more supportive, with Wall Street rebounding sharply from the previous session's Fed-driven selloff. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, while the Nasdaq surged 1.7%, led by chipmakers, as easing bond yields and a retreat in crude prices provided some relief. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the possibility of further tightening continue to keep global sentiment cautious.

Asian markets are trading higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, Hang Seng gaining 0.49% and the Kospi rising 1.9%. Brent crude remains elevated near $104 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, keeping pressure on India's import bill and inflation outlook. GIFT Nifty is hovering close to the flatline, slightly below Thursday's close, indicating a rangebound start.

The near-term undertone remains cautiously constructive as long as the Nifty sustains above 23,100. A break below this level could drag the index towards 22,900, while sustained trade above 23,360-23,400 may open the way towards 23,600. With crude above $100 and the Fed's tightening stance unresolved, volatility is likely to remain elevated, although softer global bond yields could provide some support.

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,76,08,331.