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Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,600, continuing to hold above an important support zone despite short term fluctuations. Renewed ETF inflows and improving institutional participation indicate that long term conviction remains intact, while the market is increasingly responding to structural demand rather than speculative momentum. The current phase appears to be one of healthy consolidation, providing a stronger foundation for the next leg of growth.

For investors, this is a time to remain disciplined rather than react to every price movement. Maintaining a diversified portfolio, investing systematically, and focusing on assets with strong fundamentals can help navigate periods of uncertainty. Avoid chasing sudden rallies or making decisions driven by market noise. Patience and a long term perspective continue to be among the strongest advantages in the digital asset market."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant Analyst, Mudrex

Crude oil is set for a weekly gain of over 11%, trading above $79 a barrel after U.S. strikes on an Iranian tanker and Trump's warnings about Iranian infrastructure revived fears over Strait of Hormuz supply. On the other hand, Gold is trading below $4,000, down over 3% this week, while silver has slid below $56, losing more than 7%. Higher oil prices have reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer, with markets pricing in a roughly 51% chance of a September hike. Oil is testing the $80 level, while gold must hold $4,000 to avoid further downside.

Expenses such as pulse oximeters, masks, sanitisers, supplements and even some medicines may not be covered unless the policy. Read full report here

The Thesis

India's broad market closed flat on Thursday as IT and auto rebounds absorbed US-Iran escalation heading into a sixth consecutive strike night, with Brent holding above $85. The bet today is on domestic industrial deepening and global materials realignment, anchored by a declining VIX at 12.88 and DII flows absorbing FII selling.

Where We're Concentrated

The portfolio concentrates in capital goods and specialty materials - factory automation and electrification infrastructure, specialty chemicals in the China-plus-one supply corridor, and electronics manufacturing under PLI. A pharma defensive layer insulates against rupee pressure from elevated crude. The thesis breaks if Brent holds above $90: that level triggers a margin re-rating in materials before any commodity-price recovery reaches earnings.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Hindalco Industries

Aluminum and copper cycle aligned with global infrastructure capex; low VIX supports momentum continuation.

SRF Ltd

Specialty chemicals and refrigerants - China-plus-one tailwind with PLI-backed domestic capacity expansion.

Siemens Ltd

India's electrification pipeline makes this the purest capex-to-earnings compounder in industrials today.

Dixon Technologies (India)

Consumer electronics PLI leader; today's Nifty Consumer Durables gain confirms the domestic manufacturing tailwind.

Cipla Ltd

Pharmaceutical defensiveness anchors the portfolio against crude-driven rupee pressure; US generics pipeline adds upside.

One Thing to Watch

Brent above $90. Iran's IRGC has threatened both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb; a sustained break above $90 turns geopolitical noise into a margin shock for the materials and capex complex, potentially accelerating FII outflows.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - ThinCredBlu Securities Pvt. Ltd. 

"Nifty is expected to open flat to slightly positive around 24,090, up nearly 15 points, indicating a muted start as markets await fresh triggers.

Technically, 24,000 continues to act as immediate support, while 24,200-24,300 remains the key resistance zone. A sustained move above resistance could trigger fresh buying, while a break below 24,000 may invite renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the caution, several heavyweight companies are scheduled to announce their quarterly results over the weekend. The outcome of these earnings could significantly influence market sentiment and sector-specific action at the start of next week.

With global cues and the earnings season both in focus, traders are likely to avoid aggressive positions ahead of the weekend. A disciplined, level-based approach remains advisable until the market gets fresh directional triggers."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudex

Bitcoin pulled back to the $63,500 levels from its three-week high, as a broader sell-off in technology stocks weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite the decline, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests selling pressure may be easing, with realized losses among long-term holders having peaked and now beginning to decline, a sign that the worst phase of capitulation could be over. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $290 million in net inflows in the last 2 sessions, providing underlying support. However, both long- and short-term holders continue to sell into rallies, keeping Bitcoin below its 50-month moving average near $65,900. The $63,000 level remains key support, while a break below it could expose Bitcoin to a move toward $60,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday virtually unchanged at 24,072.75, slipping just 5.75 points, but the muted close concealed a market grappling with two contrasting forces. While IT and select auto stocks provided support, financials and metals remained under pressure, reflecting a shift toward sector-specific stock picking rather than broad-based buying. Despite persistent FII outflows, the market's ability to defend the 24,000 mark highlights the resilience of domestic institutional flows, suggesting investors are awaiting stronger earnings cues before taking aggressive directional bets.

Global sentiment, however, has turned less supportive. US markets weakened as renewed selling in semiconductor stocks weighed heavily on technology shares, with the Nasdaq declining 1.47%, while Brent crude hovering near $85 per barrel has emerged as the biggest challenge for Indian equities. Elevated oil prices not only raise inflation concerns but also threaten corporate margins, fiscal stability and the rupee, making crude a more influential driver than global equity volatility at this stage.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to consolidate within a narrow range, signalling indecision rather than weakness. The 23,900-23,800 zone remains a crucial support area, while 24,150 is the immediate hurdle. A sustained move above this level could trigger fresh momentum towards 24,300, whereas a break below support may invite another round of profit booking. With earnings season gathering pace, stock-specific opportunities are likely to outperform broad index moves, keeping volatility elevated despite a range-bound headline index.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"The crypto market remained resilient despite heightened regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. Bitcoin traded near $63,352, while Ethereum held around $1,844, reflecting cautious sentiment after a strong weekly recovery. 

Overall market capitalization stood at $2.22 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 36, indicating investors remain cautious. Markets are closely tracking developments around the CLARITY Act, as President Trump meets lawmakers to address ethics concerns ahead of a potential Senate vote. 

Bitcoin is consolidating near $63,352, with immediate support at $62,800-$63,000 and stronger support around $61,800-$62,000. Resistance lies at $64,500-$64,800, followed by $65,800-$66,200. Ethereum trades near $1,844, with support at $1,820-$1,835 and resistance between $1,880-$1,900. According to analysts, futures traders should wait for confirmed breakouts before increasing exposure. A move above resistance with strong volume could favour fresh longs, while a break below support may present short opportunities."

BTC remained range-bound between $64K and $65K as on-chain indicators pointed to a gradual reduction in selling from investors who bought near the market peak. Loss realization among one-to-two-year holders is now cooling, a development often seen as bearish pressure begins to fade, though it does not yet establish a confirmed bottom. Near-term price action remains defined by support around $64K and resistance between $67K. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to restrain risk appetite. Meanwhile, a dormant whale moved 5,908 BTC to a new wallet, but not to an exchange, indicating no immediate selling pressure.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $63,500 on Friday, down about 1.9% over 24 hours, as the market gave back part of its inflation-led rebound. Softer U.S. price data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase. However, renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, higher oil prices, and weaker risk appetite limited demand for cryptocurrencies.

Immediate support is near $63,400, followed by $62,000-$62,500 and the psychological $60,000 level. Resistance is located around $65,000, followed by $66,000-$67,000. A recovery above $65,000 would stabilise the short-term structure, while a break below $63,400 could reopen a test of $62,000.

On-chain conditions are improving but do not yet confirm a durable recovery. Long-term holder capitulation has started retreating from its cycle peak. Buyers also absorbed supply around the June lows.However, Bitcoin remains below the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000, where recent buyers may sell as they approach breakeven. Derivatives traders are also reducing bearish positions, but stronger spot demand has yet to follow.

US spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains volatile. Funds recorded a $424.7 million outflow on July 13, followed by inflows of $181.1 million on July 14 and $107.7 million on July 15. July 16 showed a preliminary $45.7 million inflow.

Large-cap altcoins were broadly weaker. Ethereum fell 3.3% to $1,856, BNB declined 1.4% to $571, XRP lost 2.4% to $1.09, Solana dropped 2.4% to $75.13 and TRON eased 0.5% to $0.323.

Markets assign an 11% probability of a July Fed rate increase, down from 25% a week earlier, while pricing about 26 basis points of tightening by December. The July 28-29 Fed meeting, July 30 GDP and PCE data, and oil-market developments remain key catalysts.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing short-term rebounds. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 and ETF inflows become more consistent.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Risk appetite weakened across global markets as escalating US-Iran tensions and surging crude prices revived concerns over inflation and prolonged monetary tightening. Brent's move towards $85, resilient US retail sales and jobless claims falling to 208,000 reduce the urgency for monetary easing. The Nasdaq declined 1.47%, while the semiconductor index dropped 4.3%, with sharp corrections in SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix and Western Digital reflecting profit-booking and concerns around expensive AI valuations. SpaceX also slipped below its $135 IPO price after Starship's test flight was aborted seconds before liftoff, although another attempt is expected next week. Apple remained an exception after its AI service received regulatory registration in China.

Crypto mirrored the broader risk-off move. Bitcoin's rejection from $65,200-$65,500 and decline towards $63,500 signals weakening momentum; below $63,000, the next support lies around $62,300-$61,800. Ethereum has corrected from the $1,910-$1,940 supply zone but remains structurally constructive above $1,790-$1,835.

Gold has slipped below $4,000 as higher yields and a firm dollar outweigh safe-haven demand, while silver's sharper fall reflects its industrial sensitivity. Near-term direction will depend on oil, geopolitical developments, bond yields and US earnings guidance.

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,80,16,138.