The Sensex rose 1,063.86 points or 1.48 per cent to 72,988.54 and the Nifty50 was up 338.70 points or 1.51 per cent at 22,702 in the closing auction session. 

1. IT stocks lead on Q2 earnings: Nifty IT rose more than 3% in morning trade, with all 10 constituents in the green early in the session.
2. Crude eases and the RBI's rupee steps help: Brent crude fell about 1.2% to around $105.4 a barrel, though it remains elevated.
3. A rebound from lows, backed by the IMF upgrade: The Nifty had fallen 0.7% on Monday and slipped below 22,400 - a critical support level flagged by analysts. It has since moved back above 22,500, although it is still below Friday's close of 22,520.45.

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Rohit Mahajan, Founder and CEO plutos ONE 

"The decision to defer the implementation of MDR on select UPI merchant transactions until after Diwali is a welcome and pragmatic move by NPCI. During the festive season, when digital transactions surge, ensuring a seamless and convenient payment experience for customers and merchants is particularly important.

This decision reflects a balanced approach, keeping customer interests and the needs of the broader digital payments ecosystem in mind. As India's digital payments landscape continues to evolve, it is important to introduce changes in a calibrated manner, ensuring that merchants and consumers continue to have confidence in the system while supporting the long-term sustainability of digital payments."

Big Change For UPI Users: According to the Centre, the proposed MDR is intended to help fund UPI infrastructure, which costs Rs 20,000 crore annually. Read full report here

Mokksh Sani, Founder of Living Liquidz and  Cartel Bros

"The ongoing discussion around the classification and labelling of alcoholic beverages highlights the need for greater clarity and consistency in regulatory standards across the alcobev industry. While ensuring consumer transparency and compliance with food safety regulations is essential, it is equally important that the guidelines are clear, practical and uniformly applied across brands. Any changes in product classification or labelling can have wider implications for manufacturers, distributors, retailers and the overall supply chain. A constructive dialogue between regulators and industry stakeholders will be key to arriving at a balanced approach that safeguards consumer interests while providing businesses with the clarity and stability needed to operate."

OpenAI, in collaboration with entrepreneur and AI creator Varun Mayya, has concluded 'Build What Moves India', an initiative that brought together innovators to explore how AI could help make essential digital services simpler, more accessible, and more useful. The initiative drew over 13,000 registrations and culminated in Bengaluru, where 10 finalists presented working prototypes addressing challenges rooted in everyday experiences.

The initiative was grounded in the understanding that people who navigate essential services bring first-hand insight into where those services can improve. With access to AI tools and technical guidance, participants were encouraged to translate that knowledge into practical solutions.

Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India

Bitcoin fell 2% to about $81,995 and Ethereum lost 3.4% to $2,451, while BNB, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, TRX and Chainlink all declined. The equal-weight fall across top ten cryptos by market cap was 4.4%.

The pressure was strongest outside Bitcoin. Cardano dropped 7.7%, Avalanche fell 7.4% and Solana lost 6.2%. Chainlink declined 5.5% and Dogecoin fell 4.8%. TRX was the most resilient with a 0.4% loss, but there was no positive return among the top ten cryptos by market cap.

Closing weakness makes the move more significant than the headline percentages alone. Every named major crypto finished in the bottom third of its daily range. Bitcoin rebounded from $80,960, but ended at only 31% of its range, while Ethereum finished at 26%.

International markets added pressure to the backdrop. The Nasdaq fell 0.4%, the US semiconductor index lost 2.7%, and oil rose nearly $2 after attacks on Saudi airports. The Financial Stability Board also called for stronger cross-border monitoring of global stablecoins before the 15 October G20 meeting.

Bitcoin support is near $80,960 and $80,000, with resistance around $82,500 and $84,262. A move above $82,500, with Ethereum reclaiming $2,500 and fewer near-low closes, would improve the setup. A break below $80,960 would increase pressure. US inflation data on 14 October is the next macro catalyst.

Daniel Munday, Principal Analyst, VT Markets 

Gold is being driven by rate expectations more than fear. Iran tensions would normally support it, but they are lifting oil and yields instead, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. That is why it is still siting around $4,200, well below January's record. 

Markets have trimmed October hike bets after a softer NFP, but December is still priced as likely, so US CPI tomorrow and the October 28 FOMC are the next tests.

A sustained run of weekly ETF inflows tells me investors are using the dip to build positions and hedge uncertainty, rather than chase price. That is a sign of confidence in the longer term story. It can continue while rate expectations stabilise. A hotter inflation print and more hike pricing could slow it quickly.

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Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn

Gold and silver are gaining, although a firm US dollar and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook may limit further upside. Markets are awaiting US CPI and PPI data for fresh clues on inflation and the Fed's next policy moves. Crude oil is declining,  WTI quote at $93.425/bbl, as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies ease some immediate supply concerns. However, Houthi attacks affecting Saudi Arabia and risks to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten regional energy supplies.The Indian rupee closed at ₹95.77 per dollar on Monday following RBI measures to curb dollar demand and support the currency. Going forward, US inflation data, dollar movements, crude prices and Middle East developments remain key drivers for Indian commodity markets.

TVS Family Dispute: TVS Holdings is a key entity because it owns a controlling stake in TVS Motor Company. It owns 50.26% of TVS Motor. Read full report here

Dipal Dutta, CEO at RedoQ

India's food industry depends entirely on trust, as customers cannot inspect kitchens, verify
sourcing, or review hygiene procedures themselves, choosing instead to rely on businesses to maintain safe operations. Today that expectation expands beyond physical dining because online ordering forms a part of daily life. Food brands collect vast personal information, such as contact details, home addresses, and payment records, which customers share with the expectation that companies will protect this data with the same care they give to physical food preparation. This responsibility is increasing every day, as digital orders generate a stream of sensitive records that require secure handling across every stage of operation.

Apna, India's leading jobs and careers platform, has launched the second season of Campus Tank - India's Next Unicorn 2.0, expanding its role in India's employment ecosystem from helping people find meaningful work to enabling entrepreneurs to create jobs for others. In partnership with Chandigarh University, the initiative brings together returning investor partner Venture Catalysts alongside Inflection Point Ventures, Anthill Ventures, Indian Angel Network, Eaglewings Ventures, Aeravti Ventures, FAAD Network, PedalStart, Be An Angel and Kiani Ventures
An expanded investor network will help startups connect with capital partners suited to their stage and needs, spanning pre-seed to Series A. Beyond funding, the initiative will offer incubation, resources and ecosystem support through its partners, with further offerings to be announced as partnerships are finalised.

Speaking about the launch, Nirmit Parikh, Founder and Group CEO of Apna, said, "At Apna, our mission has always been to connect people with job opportunities, but through Campus Tank, we also have the opportunity to empower those who create jobs. The success of Season 1, with over 21,000 applications from 28 states and five union territories, reflects the immense entrepreneurial potential of India's youth. As we launch Season 2, I am particularly excited about startups working in upskilling and reskilling, AI data training, and applied AI. I strongly believe India has the potential to build AI solutions not just for the country, but for the world. My message to young founders is to think long-term, look beyond funding rounds and valuations, and focus on building businesses that create lasting impact."

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin's latest correction reflects the collision of geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices and an upcoming US inflation report. BTC briefly approached $81,000 before recovering, while Ethereum fell toward $2,400 and XRP and Dogecoin also declined. The scale of liquidations is notable, with more than $775 million in crypto positions wiped out in 24 hours, largely affecting leveraged long positions.

What matters now is whether this flush-out creates a healthier base for recovery. Bitcoin's open interest fell 1.64%, indicating some positions have been unwound, while derivatives traders on Binance increased their long exposure. On-chain data cited by analysts identifies $84,569 as a key supply zone, where nearly 800,000 BTC previously changed hands. Reclaiming this level would strengthen the case for a sustained rebound, rather than a short-lived bounce.

For investors, Wednesday's US CPI release is the next major catalyst. A softer reading could ease macro pressure, but persistently high oil prices may keep inflation concerns elevated. Traders should watch Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $84,500 and manage leverage carefully, as volatility can intensify around key data releases." 

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Gold and silver futures are entering Tuesday's session with a cautious bias, following overnight weakness in international bullion markets. The latest available domestic reference is from October 12, as the regular MCX daytime session has not opened yet.

MCX December gold futures opened at Rs 1,51,596 per 10 grams on Monday, against a previous close of Rs 1,51,499. The contract subsequently fell to Rs 1,50,845. December silver futures opened at Rs 2,25,494 per kg, compared with a previous close of Rs 2,25,755. The reported price later slipped to Rs 2,25,304. These figures indicate selling pressure in both metals during the previous session.

International markets also weakened. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,169.10 an ounce on Monday, while US December gold futures settled 0.6% lower at $4,190.60. Spot silver declined 1% to $60.22 an ounce. A stronger US dollar and rising oil prices weighed on bullion.

The dollar's strength and the inflation outlook remain important drivers. US inflation data due this week could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Higher interest-rate expectations and elevated yields can weigh on gold and silver because neither asset generates interest income.

For Indian investors, gold needs to reclaim Rs 1.51 lakh per 10 grams to improve its near-term outlook. Silver needs to move back above Rs 2.26 lakh per kg to signal stronger buying interest. Currency movements will also affect domestic prices, as India imports much of its bullion.

The near-term outlook remains cautious rather than decisively bearish. Investors should watch the dollar, US yields and inflation data before interpreting any rebound as a sustained recovery. Fresh October 13 MCX opening prices will be needed to establish the day's direction.

Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst- Derivatives and Technical Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 fell 157.10 points (0.70%) to 22,363.35 on Monday, to settle near session lows under the heavy drag of IT and FMCG counters. Wall Street ended mixed - the Dow gained 0.38% while the Nasdaq fell 0.44% and the S&P 500 was flat (-0.06%), as a 2% spike in oil prices following attacks on Riyadh's international airport stoked inflation fears and the dollar index surged to an 18-month high, even as the US bond market was closed for Columbus Day and investors awaited Wednesday's CPI data and the start of Q3 bank earnings.

Asian markets are sharply lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 2.5% after reopening from Monday's Sports Day holiday, while South Korea's Kospi slumped 6% amid chip-led selling, triggering a sidecar. Despite regional weakness, GIFT Nifty signals a resilient equity opening, trading up around 50 points. Meanwhile, crude has eased slightly, with Brent hovering near $106 per barrel, remaining structurally elevated.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid technical weakness. Nifty's RSI at 34 is nearing oversold territory, indicating fading selling pressure but no decisive reversal as long as it stays below 22,500-22,600. Immediate support stands at 22,300; a breach could expose the 52-week low near 22,180.

The Thesis
InvestorAi's picks barbell two return sources: exporters that spent recent months banking margin from a weak rupee, and domestic consumption and insurance names indifferent to the currency's direction. That split matters now because the RBI just reversed the currency story - its most aggressive dollar-defense package since the 2013 taper tantrum pulled the rupee back from record-low territory, trimming the exporters' tailwind just as the Nifty 500 broadened out 1.16% on mid and small-cap strength.

Where We're Concentrated
The cluster spans IT, textile and media-services exporters whose margin story was built on a cheaper rupee, now being tested as RBI intervention pulls the currency the other way, paired with insurance and consumption names that don't care which way it moves. What breaks it: if the rupee keeps strengthening past the defended line, exporter margin cushions erode faster than domestic demand can offset - and if the defense fails instead, renewed Gulf shipping risk keeps crude-linked costs elevated across the board either way.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Allied Blenders and Distillers
Premium liquor demand is a domestic consumption play untouched by the rupee's swing or Gulf-driven crude costs.
Prime Focus
Dollar-billed VFX and media contracts still carry the margin cushion built during the rupee's recent weakness.
Welspun Living
US-bound textile exports locked in the rupee's recent softness, a cushion now tested as RBI defends the 95-97 band.
Max Financial Services
Insurance penetration is a domestic financialization story, insulated from the currency and crude crosswinds today.
Infosys
IT export margins carry the rupee's past weakness, the clearest test case if RBI's currency defense holds from here.
One Thing to Watch
Rupee's test of RBI's 97 defense line The central bank's most aggressive dollar intervention since 2013 pulled the rupee back to 95.80 from record-low territory; a slip back toward 97 would hand the IT and textile exporters here their currency tailwind back, but most likely only alongside fresh Gulf-driven crude pressure.

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty closed at 22,363.35, down 0.70 reversing a significant portion of the previous session's recovery as selling pressure returned across key sectors. US markets ended mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones gaining, while the Nasdaq declined as Technology stocks remained under pressure for assessed elevated valuations ahead of the quarterly earnings season.
Asian markets are trading mostly lower in early trade, as escalating Middle East tensions, rising crude oil prices and caution ahead of key US economic data weigh on investor sentiment. Crude oil contract closed around 8,980 (1.1%), supported by supply-disruption concerns following fresh attacks linked to escalating Middle East tensions. GIFT Nifty is trading lower around 22,419, up about 49 points in early trade, indicating a potentially positive opening for Indian equities.
Technically, The index continues to trade below its key moving averages, indicating a weak technical structure, while the daily RSI near 34 reflects subdued momentum. Immediate support is placed at 22,300, followed by the crucial swing support at 22,180. A decisive break below 22,180 could extend the decline towards 22,000. On the upside, 22,500-22,600 is the immediate resistance zone, while 22,800 remains a key hurdle for a sustained recovery. The index has formed a bearish candle after facing selling pressure at higher levels, suggesting that recovery attempts are still attracting sellers. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bearish to cautious, with a sell-on-rise approach favoured until Nifty reclaims the 22,600-22,800 resistance zone. A sustained hold above 22,300 is important to prevent further downside pressure.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. This post is for educational purposes only.  For more details click on https://www.jainam.in/disclaimer/

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets remain under pressure after another sharp deleveraging event, with Bitcoin briefly falling toward $81,000 before recovering near $83,000, while Ethereum bounced from around $2,400 toward $2,500.

The sell-off reflected a combination of macro, geopolitical and positioning pressures. Fresh Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure attacks and continued Middle East tensions added to risk aversion, while elevated oil prices reinforced inflation concerns. A stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields and caution ahead of US. CPI further pressured risk assets. Once Bitcoin lost support, leveraged long liquidations accelerated the decline, while recent ETF outflows offered limited institutional support.

Technically, Bitcoin is testing a crucial $82,900-$83,400 resistance cluster. A sustained break above $83,400 could open $84,000-$84,500, followed by $86,000-$87,000. Failure to reclaim this zone keeps $81,000-$82,000 vulnerable, with $80,000 the critical support.

Ethereum remains comparatively weaker. ETH needs to reclaim $2,500-$2,525 and subsequently $2,550-$2,560 to strengthen its recovery, while $2,400-$2,450 remains key support. Near-term direction will likely depend heavily on CPI, softer inflation could extend the relief rally, while a hotter print could renew selling pressure.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"Inflation in India rose to 5.54%, while China's exports surged 64% despite weaker domestic sales. US Treasury yields near 5.24% and Brent above $106 kept borrowing costs and inflation concerns elevated, potentially limiting crypto liquidity. Tighter RBI expectations may restrain Indian participation, while US inflation data could reduce Federal Reserve tightening pressure. Overall, firm export demand supports confidence, but high yields and energy costs keep Bitcoin and altcoin participation selective.

Bitcoin trades near $82,249, consolidating below key short-term averages while RSI remains neutral. Support sits at $81,800- $82,000, followed by $80,200- $81,100; resistance lies at $82,800- $83,100. Holding support preserves recovery potential. 

For BTC Futures traders, rising open interest alongside stronger volume and balanced funding would provide better confirmation of a sustained breakout.

Ethereum trades near $2,455 after short-term moving averages weakened, while its longer-term structure remains supported. The $2,440- $2,450 region provides immediate support, with $2,350 below. Reclaiming the psychological $2,500 level could improve participation, although $2,535- $2,565 remains the key resistance area. Holding support would preserve stability. Until then, price action may remain range-bound.

Asian equities weakened sharply, led by the KOSPI's 5.95% and Nikkei's 2.56% declines, while Singapore gained 0.42%. US markets' sentiment was mixed: the Dow rose 0.38%, but the Nasdaq fell 0.44% and the VIX increased 2.49%. Gold slipped 0.25%, while oil declined 1.11%, easing some inflation pressure. Although weaker equities may limit speculative participation, lower energy costs and limited defensive buying could support selective capital rotation into Bitcoin and broader crypto markets 
during the current session.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $21.13 million in daily net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT, while Ethereum ETFs posted $56.10 million in outflows, extending their withdrawal streak to nine sessions. Bitcoin nevertheless gained 0.60% to around $82,249, while Ether rose 0.45% to nearly $2,455 despite fund withdrawals. The divergence shows ETF flows do not determine prices alone. Spot demand, short-covering, derivatives positioning, exchange supply, profit-taking and macro conditions can absorb institutional activity and delay an equivalent price response across markets."

Daily Quote from Mudrex
Bitcoin is trading near $82,000 after finding support at $81,000, following a rapid liquidation of $120 million in long positions within 15 minutes. Escalating tensions involving Ukraine and Iran have intensified risk aversion, pushing Brent crude to $107 and the dollar index to its highest since April 2025. Market sentiment has cooled, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 56 from around 80 in early October. Yet, Strategy added another 250 BTC, while Bitcoin posted its first bullish 13/34-week moving average crossover in 3.5 years indicating potential upside. US CPI on Wednesday and Fed Chair Warsh's Friday remarks are key catalysts. Support remains at $81,000 to, with resistance at $84,000 said Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Daily Quote from CoinSwitch
BTC slipped below $83K as rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterm elections influenced market sentiment. BTC continues to consolidate below the $86K-$87K resistance zone, with near-term direction largely dependent on broader macroeconomic conditions. Institutional accumulation remained steady despite market volatility, with Strategy purchasing 250 BTC and Bitmine adding 12,532 ETH, reflecting continued long-term interest in digital assets. Market attention now shifts to Wednesday's U.S. inflation report, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.5%. A softer-than-expected reading could ease pressure on bond yields and support renewed momentum across crypto markets said CoinSwitch Markets Desk

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold is easing toward $4,150/oz for a second session as the dollar reaches an 18-month high. Markets await Wednesday's US inflation data, with an 88% probability of a December Fed hike already priced in. Silver is trading near $60/oz. WTI remains above $93/barrel after three consecutive gains, as escalating Middle East tensions and Russia's breach of the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire heighten supply concerns, despite Russia resuming 500,000 tonnes of diesel exports under a US Treasury waiver. The rupee surged 0.99% to Rs 95.78/$ on Monday, its strongest daily gain since April, following RBI measures to ease oil companies' dollar access and tighten derivative limits.

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At the close on Monday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,65,16,690.