This Article is From Mar 06, 2012

Uttar Pradesh election results: Heavyweight Mayawati set to be the day's biggest loser

Uttar Pradesh election results: Heavyweight Mayawati set to be the day's biggest loser
Lucknow: The BJP's import from Madhya Pradesh, Uma Bharti, is leading in Charkhari and therein lies one of the big Uttar Pradesh headlines today. In early trends, the BJP is the surprise package in UP, doing unexpectedly well. The Samajwadi Party is performing to script and if the present trend continues should get a shot at government formation. Heavyweight Mayawati already seems set to be the day's biggest loser; her second-term dreams seem dashed. The Congress is number 4 in early trends; it has gained but not enough to make an impact.

Exit polls had said hung Assembly. Calculators have been out over the last three days to work out likely political alignments - events of the last two decades suggest that only political expediency decide friends and foes in the state. Akhilesh Yadav, the 39-year-old who wrote the Samajwadi Party's seemingly winning UP script, has said he hopes to get the simple majority at 202 seats; the UP Assembly has 403 seats. The big question of this morning is where will the SP count stop. How far short of the 202. And if these trends continue will father Mulayam be CM or will son Akhilesh, the man who has presented the new face of the SP - he talked law and order, education and a youth agenda. In Lucknow, the crowds at the SP party office tell the tale.

For now, the BJP is doing very well in its traditional bastion - the urban centres. It is also doing well in the Bundelkhand region, which borders MP; the Uma Bharti effect? The SP now has a commanding control of rural UP as it races way ahead of every other party in the numbers tally.
  
These UP elections have been seen as career-defining for the Congress' Rahul Gandhi; seven years of single-minded focus on reviving the party's fortunes in the state are on test. As are his personal charisma and political equity. The Congress' Salman Khurshid said yesterday that the Congress was "not a cash and carry party...Rahul has talked about the long term. Nobody went into the depth that Rahul did. UP has not heard anyone speak like him, with his conviction."

Despite that Gandhi conviction, the Congress has not shown great strides and Rahul's lieutenants have said they will take the blame. Did the mandalisation of the Congress, which went big on the Muslim quota card, spoil it for Rahul?

From the ruling BSP, there is no word yet after the exit polls, which had predicted that Mayawati would not get the second consecutive term she is seeking as Chief Minister, her fifth ever. Her win in the last elections in 2007 was the first time in many years that UP gave a party a majority, also thus making her the first Chief Minister in years to complete a five-year term.

If India's most populous state gets a hung assembly, what are Governor BL Joshi's options?

He could ask the largest party to prove majority; he could invite the largest alliance to form government, or he could recommend President's Rule. In 1993, the Governor invited not the single largest party, the BJP, but the SP-BSP coalition to form government. In 1996, the BJP, again the single largest party, was not invited and the Governor recommended President's Rule. Five months later, a BSP-BJP combine came to power. In 2002, the Samajwadi Party was the single largest party, but was not invited to form government. The Governor recommended President's Rule; a BSP-BJP-RLD alliance staked claim. That association fell apart a year later and Mulayam Singh Yadav became Chief Minister. In 2007, UP just handed Mayawati a majority.
.