Scientists Warn Strong El Nino Could Disrupt Monsoon Patterns Across The World This Year

As the possibility of a strong El Nino increases this year, scientists are closely watching how it may affect monsoon seasons across the world. Experts say the weather system developing in the Pacific Ocean could disturb normal rainfall patterns and bring both drought and extreme rain to different regions, reported National Geographic.

What Is El Nino?

El Nino is a climate phenomenon that usually appears every two to seven years. It changes the movement of moisture in the atmosphere, often causing dry conditions in some places and heavy rainfall in others. In the past, El Nino has been linked to weaker monsoons, drought-like conditions and crop failures. Scientists, however, say that even when total rainfall decreases, extreme rainfall events can still rise.

Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Centre, said that what happened during winter and spring was just as important, if not more important, than the monsoon season itself.

Experts warn that the warming conditions in the Pacific could lead to food insecurity, drought and fires in regions that usually receive steady seasonal rain. At the same time, some places could still experience strong monsoon rainfall despite El Nino conditions.

Scientists say El Nino and monsoon systems both influence the buildup of moisture in the atmosphere. El Nino develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual, changing weather patterns around the world.

El Nino generally brings warmer and drier conditions to regions such as the Caribbean, Indonesia and Australia.

India usually receives less rainfall during El Nino years. The country's meteorological department has already forecast a below-normal monsoon season and said it was carefully monitoring sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

How El Nino Affects Monsoon In India?

Scientists also noted that weather conditions before the monsoon season can influence how El Nino affects rainfall.

In the American Southwest, a dry and warm winter could strengthen monsoon activity despite El Nino's usual weakening effect.

Gottschalck said that because conditions were very dry and there was little snow, the land was likely to heat up faster and more intensely, which could create very strong monsoon circulation potential.

Experts also said that lower snow cover in the Himalayas can strengthen India's monsoon even during El Nino years.

The location of warming in the Pacific Ocean is another important factor. Scientists explained that if the warming remains further east, its effect on India's monsoon may be weaker.

However, Gottschalck said that it currently appeared to be a basin-wide event, meaning the warming would likely affect monsoon systems in India, Indonesia and West Africa.

He also noted that tropical regions usually experience the effects of El Nino more quickly than higher-latitude areas.

Scientists stressed that it is still too early to predict how strong this El Nino will become or exactly how it will combine with other weather conditions.

However, experts warned that hotter and drier summers, along with sudden extreme rainfall events linked to El Nino, could seriously damage crops and affect the people who depend on them for food and livelihood.