The voter turnout figures in the Bihar elections have sparked off an intense conversation. The revised data from the Election commission of India suggests a provisional turnout of 69.1%, which is almost 12 percentage points higher than 2020. The turnout of women voters is estimated at 71.6%, which is also close to 12 percentage points more than the 59.7% recorded in 2020. This is an extraordinary rise in voter turnout, but what do we make of it? Will it offer a peek into the results and the trends in Bihar?
Firstly, voting in Bihar, after registering 60%-plus figures in the 1990s thanks to Mandal-era mobilisation, dropped to around 46.5% in 2005. Since then, it has consistently had a positive rise. It climbed to 52.7% in 2010, 56.3% in 2015, to 57.29% in 2020. In parliamentary polls, the state has consistently seen 56-57% voting, though in last year's Lok Sabha election, the voter turnout was a notch lower at 56.2%.
The Numbers And Their Context
The 2020 contest was a Covid election, and that perhaps explains the minimal rise in voter turnout. Arguably, over the last four assembly polls - which have defined the Nitish Kumar era - an average 3-4 percentage point increase in turnout is par for the course. This translates into around 25-30 lakh more votes on a 7.5-crore voter roll.
It is also obvious that the contentious and controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process led to a trimming of the overall electoral roll from 7.89 crore in June 2025 to 7.45 crore, a reduction of about 5.6% or around 44 lakh names. This would automatically mean a higher turnout percentage, even if the same number of people cast their vote as did in 2020.
This is to emphasise that percentage figures in voter turnouts may not give us a clear picture. What needs to be studied is the actual number of people who cast their vote. And the increase, as per Election Commission data, is of around 90 lakh votes in 2025. If we deduct the 25-30 lakh votes that were par for the course, then the quantum of real jump that needs to be explained this time is the remaining 65 lakh, that is, around 8% of votes - as well as the specific increase in women voters.
The 'Disruptive' Entrant
The fact that you had Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), a highly publicised and talked about new entrant in these elections, has to account for a larger voter mobilisation than earlier. In a state like Bihar, which has been defined by the ‘Nitish vs Lalu' battle for nearly three decades, voter fatigue is an obvious reality. A new entrant certainly brings the disenchanted voter out and also fresh mobilisation.
In most Indian states that have seen strong three-way battles, with a new entrant disrupting traditional equations, voter turnouts have seen a growth. For instance, Tamil Nadu in 2006 saw a 11 percentage point increase in turnout over 2001 as actor Vijayakanth entered the fray as a third force. Similar trends have been seen in other places. For instance, when the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) entered the fray in New Delhi in 2013, the turnout increased by 8 percentage points.
In effect, a large chunk of the increase in the vote share in Bihar this year could be attributed to the novelty factor and the greater mobilisation by the new entrant. But this doesn't mean that the entire increase is because of the JSP.
What Explains The Rise?
The fact that this election has revolved around the quest for the women vote, with both the Mahagathbandhan and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) making several promises and reaching out to the women's vote bloc surely would have made an impact. The SIR process and the conversation around the Citizenship (Amendment) Act could have bolstered the minorities and migrant labourers to stay back and vote, according to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress leaders. Finally, while Bihar elections in the past have been around Deepavali, this time it went on till after the Chhath Pooja. Chhath is Bihar's biggest festival and the political parties did try to convince the migrants to stay on and cast their votes. So, the festivities, too, helped boost the numbers,
Thus, all these factors may have had an impact. Even so, the bulk of it may be explained by the new entrant in the fray, a trimmed electoral roll, and the usual increase in turnout one has seen over the past two decades.
Ultimately, voter turnouts can never say anything conclusively. Until the results are out, these numbers need not suggest any specific advantage for one side or the other. Biharis know that this is an end-of-an-era election for both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav. The mobilisation by all sides has also been much larger given the close margins in 2020. It may have been a surprise if the turnout had been lesser. The quantum of increase may not seem extraordinary if all these factors at play are taken into account.
(With inputs from Ashwini Kumar Singh, NDTV)
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
