The Congress party hopes to make significant gains in Telangana, where it formed the government late last year by trouncing the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in state elections late last year. Telangana sends 17 MPs to the Lok Sabha in total. In the 2019 general elections, the BRS won nine out of those 17 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won four, the Congress three and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) one. C-Voter and ETG surveys predict that this time, the Congress may win around nine seats in the state, which votes on May 13.
The Congress scripted a stunning victory last year by bagging 64 of the 119 assembly seats on offer. The BRS won 38 seats, the BJP eight and the AIMIM seven. The party, which chose to bank on local-level anti-incumbency and the traction generated by the announcement of guarantees for all sections of society, went on to bag a 40% vote share against the BRS's 38% and the BJP-led alliance's 14%. In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the state, the Congress thus hopes that its 2023 victory, the implementation of guarantees, the weakening of the BRS and Revanth Reddy's charismatic leadership will help it perform well in the state yet again.
Why is Congress upbeat about its prospects in Telangana?
1. Implementation Of Guarantees
The Congress government has earmarked Rs 53,196 crore for the implementation of its six poll 'guarantees'. It has already implemented four of the six, and the remaining will be rolled out in a phased manner. The guarantees include free bus travel for women, Rs. 10 lakh health insurance for the poor, supply of domestic LPG cylinders at ₹500 each and free power supply to households consuming up to 200 units per month.
Reddy, who has managed to create his own pool of beneficiaries, has sought to turn the elections into a battle of perception - about whether the people see the Congress's delivery better than that of the Centre. Even if there are some issues in implementation, this is a honeymoon period of sorts as voters won't be averse to giving the benefit of the doubt to a party that's been in power for just around four months.
2. Rahul and Revanth's Popularity
With elections turning more and more presidential in style, leadership plays an important role. Rahul Gandhi is more popular in the South compared to other regions. In fact, at one point in Telangana, he was more popular than even Narendra Modi. Today, Reddy is by far the most popular local leader, ahead of BRS's K. Chandrashekar Rao and any BJP leader. "Until now, you had seen an administrator in me in the last few months after I became the chief minister. From now on, you will all see my performance as PCC (Pradesh Congress Committee) chief," Revanth said as soon as the schedule for the Lok Sabha elections was announced. He also openly stated that the Lok Sabha polls would be a referendum on his government's performance. Reddy's statements indicate that the morale of the Congress cadre is running high.
3. The Weakening of BRS
The BRS's sorry performance in 2023 exposed its weaknesses. The arrest of KCR's daughter, K. Kavitha, in an alleged liquor scam in Delhi has tarnished the image of the party. And KCR's high-handedness, aloofness and inaccessibility have further dented his stature among voters.
The party is already going through a crisis, with five of its nine Lok Sabha MPs and one MLA having quit to join either the Congress or the BJP. The BRS also stares at the possibility of losing several of its 38 MLAs to the Congress or the BJP during or immediately after the Lok Sabha polls. The party leadership is yet to come to terms with the loss of power and is struggling to deal with pent-up discontent among its leaders and cadres.
A Possible Bipolar Contest
In the 2023 assembly elections, the Congress's improved vote shares in its traditional voting segments - SCs (among which it saw a rise of 13 percentage points over the last time), STs (8 percentage points more) and Muslims (5 percentage points more) - came largely at the expense of the BRS. The Congress this time is hoping to make additional gains in these traditional segments, though the BRS still commands around 34% of the SC-ST and 41% of Muslim support. It also hopes to win over the youth by capitalising on the discontent over the lack of employment, coupled with the party's promise of 30 lakh jobs. Efforts are being made to woo farmers too through the implementation of schemes like Rythu Bharosa in the coming days.
The exodus of leaders from the BRS and the national character of the polls is also likely to turn the election into a bipolar contest between the Congress and BJP, which is hoping to bag the anti-Congress vote lying with the BRS.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP bagged 20% votes, almost three times its tally in the 2018 assembly election. In the latest elections, the party won 14% votes and is hoping that the Modi factor will further help it enhance its performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Any bipolar contest with the Congress gives confidence to the BJP. Of the 190 direct BJP vs INC contests in 2019 across India, the BJP was the winner in a whopping 175. In Telangana, the party is strong in the north and Hyderabad regions but faces challenges in the South and central areas. Unlike in other states in India, the BJP has not been able to crack the OBC code here. The unexpected removal of Sanjay Bandi as the state unit's chief has dented its popularity in the community. According to news reports, the BJP is aiming to win over 12 out of the total 17 seats and 35% of the total votes in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Whether it manages to do that remains to be seen, but what's certain is that a better show in Telangana is essential for the BJP to accomplish its 'Mission 50' in the South.
The role of the AIMIM is also important, especially in Hyderabad, where polarisation comes into play. The BJP is hoping that the weakening of the BRS will also affect the AIMIM's prospects as the two have had an unofficial understanding for many elections now.
All in all, a cracker of an election awaits in Telangana.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.