Can your strength become your weakness?
That is the profound philosophical question that one must ask in the wake of recent setbacks suffered by MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in an increasingly bitter confrontation with actor-turned-chief minister C Joseph Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), whose upset victory in Tamil Nadu's assembly elections this year is causing significant political changes in the state.
The election defeat was in itself quite a surprise for many political observers, but what happened after that has thrown up more surprises that need to be looked at.
An implosion in the ranks of DMK's main rival of the past, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led by Edapadi Palanisamy (EPS) and many of its leaders joining the TVK, has not been much of a surprise. I had predicted this for NDTV even before the election results were out.
But the shakeup in DMK's own coalition ranks with old allies either leaving or fuming is something substantially new. That is worth pondering over. Over the past months, after Rahul Gandhi's Indian National Congress broke off to join Vijay's minority coalition before more parties and legislators strengthened the TVK, the Dalit-oriented VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi), the Communist Party of India (CPI), and the Vaiko-led MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) have left the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance. VCK is now a firm part of Vijay's government.
It turns out that DMK has chosen to view its electoral defeat not with the stoic introspection that it deserved. Instead, Stalin and Company, led by his son, heir apparent, current state opposition leader Udhayanidhi Stalin, have chosen to walk the tough path in shaming allies-turned-adversaries. There is apparently a clear dose of overconfidence - the kind you normally see in victory, not in defeat.
This hubris may well turn out to be a problem for the DMK in the coming days. A sign of it was evident this week as the Supreme Court slammed the DMK for trying to stop Vijay from visiting Karur, where an ugly stampede at TVK's pre-election rally last September led to 41 deaths. While the ostensible reason for the plea before the top court was to prevent the Chief Minister and his aides from influencing witnesses in the stampede case, the court's words - though not a verdict - showed that the DMK was out to politicise everything since the TVK's victory.
The DMK is perhaps India's strongest party in terms of organisation after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP. It has a firm ideology, committed cadres, and no dearth of resources to fight elections. It also has a creditable track record in administration on both economic growth and welfare handouts. Yet, as I argued, in a post-election analysis for NDTV, Tamil Nadu now has a fast-expanding Gen Z wishlist.
I would have expected the DMK to bide its time and wait for mistakes by the TVK government to get going on a bounce-back route. But what we have seen is the DMK targeting its erstwhile allies while insisting that they are leaving because of horse-trading and the lure of posts. That could be true, but only in a partial sense. More importantly, it closes doors that perhaps needed to be kept open.
"Some people became ministers by receiving our votes through our alliance. They are staying silent because they fear that their 'sofa' will be pulled away...," Udhayanidhi said recently.
There are two flaws in the argument. First is the DMK's implicit belief that allies benefit from its influence and not the other way around. Some signals on this were evident even before the elections when Congress leader Praveen Chakravarty (now in the Rajya Sabha) cosied up to Vijay - raising questions on the future of the DMK-Congress friendship that shook the UPA government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in its second term.
Despite a two-decade-long equation, from all indications, the DMK rejected Congress hints or demands to be part of a future government in the event of a victory.
MDMK leader Vaiko said after breaking off with the DMK that his party was humiliated in being forced to contest the elections on the DMK's Rising Sun symbol. Meanwhile, VCK leader and Tamil Nadu minister Vanni Arasu said this week that DMK leaders were trying to divert attention away from a fight against the BJP by targeting the VCK.
It has been an eventful two months in Tamil Nadu. The VCK walked gingerly into the TVK-led coalition but is now sounding combative - because the DMK is provoking it.
A lot has changed in Tamil Nadu over the past two decades. While Stalin gained ground after AIADMK chief minister J Jayalalithaa died in 2016, the restlessness of a young generation of voters has changed the ground realities. DMK's audacious style is now resulting in a counter-consolidation that is strengthening Vijay's hold that had thus far relied on his movie star charisma.
This is a bit ironic because the inexperienced ranks of the TVK should have been on the back foot on administrative and policy issues - as they still are. Instead, the hullabaloo over alliance politics is grabbing the headlines.
The DMK may be weakening itself by not tilting in favour of a coalition dharma in which it sees its allies as contributing substantially to a Team DMK victory by a combination of votes and the projected appearance of sound, stable governance. With Stalin himself having lost his assembly seat, the DMK looks a far cry from its invincible self after the 2024 elections to the Lok Sabha.
TVK, though its ministerial ranks sound obviously inexperienced, is showing more spunk than its shaky self can afford even as it faces allegations of horse-trading. DMK's brazen style is giving it an unexpected advantage.
(Madhavan Narayanan is a senior editor, writer and columnist with more than 30 years of experience, having worked for Reuters, The Economic Times, Business Standard, and Hindustan Times after starting out in the Times of India Group)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
