Just as with most things that Narendra Modi's government does, you can look at the ministerial reshuffle in multiple ways. Here are three: first, as a political exercise; second, as a hint to the prime minister's thinking about how his government is performing and what needs to be done in the run-up to 2019; and third, its real effects on the country as separate from the spin that the government and its backers put out.
So what does this say about the BJP's politics going forward? According to the most important source of information in India, the BJP's leaks straight to WhatsApp groups, the spin will be the following: "The power of 4P: Passion + Proficiency + Professional + Political Acumen - for Progress". This is typically and irritatingly meaningless. Why precisely are both "proficiency" and "professional in there? Seriously, though, it is clear that this will be spun as three things: first, as an "accountability and governance" move, finding the right person for the right job; second, as a progressive reshuffle, moving Nirmala Sitharaman to Defence - a first, if one excludes Indira Gandhi; and third, as an exercise carried out in the spirit of Modi's "New India", which rises beyond caste and class considerations.
Of course, none of these are completely true, but that's politics. We'll get to the accountability and governance question in a while, but let's look closely at what actually underlies the choices. It is this: aside from some of the ex-bureaucrats brought in from outside, it is loyalty to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's view of the world that has been rewarded. This isn't just obvious from Amit Shah's pilgrimage to Vrindavan to get the RSS leadership's approval on the final list of ministers late last week. Look at those who have been inducted: Ananthkumar Hegde, for example, who is far from being defensive about his ideology and, really, why should he be? He famously told a press conference that Islam "is a ticking time bomb of terror" and that "as long as there is Islam in this world, there will be terrorism". Hegde is extremely popular with the RSS in Karnataka and has been a loyal soldier of the Sangh; he took the oath of office in Hindi as his state worries about Hindi imposition, and once said that he would prevent Muslim processions since "he had 63 criminal cases against him and he was not afraid of one more being slapped on him".
Other RSS men inducted have grabbed fewer past headlines such as Virendra Kumar of Madhya Pradesh, who is known above all for
gau-raksha. Both the two new ministers from Bihar and UP are Brahmins with strong links to the Sangh. This is the second successive reshuffle that restates the importance of the RSS to the Modi ministry; about half the new or promoted ministers in the 2016 reshuffle had strong RSS connections. There is no reason why connections to the Sangh should correlate with governance ability; remember, that's how we got Manohar Khattar as Chief Minister of Haryana.
Now, what do the changes mean for Modi's estimation of his government's strengths and weaknesses? I think the Prime Minister has finally noted that his government is seriously weak on expertise and on administrative talent. That's probably why the new entrants featured several outsiders as well as the RSS men - people chosen for their past experience in government. This is a welcome development. But I think it won't work - for Modi has chosen to believe that what he needs is ex-bureaucrats rather than complete outsiders. This government is already stuttering because of an over-reliance on the IAS; it seems that that central message has not yet been learned.
The second message is that ministers who are articulate and effective advocates for their work and their ministries, such as Piyush Goyal and Nirmala Sitharaman, have been promoted or moved to ministries where communication has been a problem. The PM continues to prize this skill above all others; going into 2019, he clearly wants his cabinet to be as full of on-message communicators as possible.
Finally, let's look for a moment behind the spin, at the actual choices, at the matching of person and portfolio. Is it really all about accountability, about the right minister for the right ministry, about professionalism and proficiency and all that stuff? Well, it's not clear to me how this could be the case. I have the greatest respect for some of the new entrants, for example, such as the extremely distinguished and clear-thinking diplomat Hardeep Puri, but I am not sure why he has been given the Urban Affairs portfolio - should that not have gone to someone with experience of cities, like KJ Alphons, while Puri is allowed to use his knowledge of world affairs and his strategic expertise in, say, the foreign or defence ministries? Why is Alphons in Tourism and IT instead of Smart Cities or HRD? Why is an ex-Mumbai police commissioner in the HRD ministry instead? It's all very well to ask for external expertise, but this assignation looks completely and utterly random. It's as if Modi cares about only one aspect of their expertise - the ability to understand files and file notings - and not the accumulated experience of their decades in public life.
As for accountability, don't make me laugh. There's no clear reason why some people have been sacked, others moved sideways, and yet others promoted. Why have the two Ministers of State in the Finance Ministry been replaced? The ministry is dealing with extraordinarily complex transitions at the moment; was their performance so poor that it warranted a change in the leadership team at this precise moment? Yes, Uma Bharti's performance in water resources was poor, and it's fortunate that this has been handed over to Nitin Gadkari (who has been talking about inland waterways forever). But why then has Bharti been given the even more important water and sanitation (
Swacch Bharat) portfolio? I am glad that Nirmala Sitharaman has been given Defence; she's honest and approachable. But this cannot be a reward for performance; her tenure at Commerce and Industry was far from a success - "Make in India" lies dead or near death. Why is Jayant Sinha not being promoted, in spite of excellent work at Civil Aviation? Why is JP Nadda still Health Minister in spite of absolutely awful results so far? And why in heavens' name has a
gau-rakshak been made Minister of Stare for Minority Affairs affairs? (OK, perhaps I understand that one at least.)
Don't get lost in the praise, the spin, and the triumphalism. This is a confused reshuffle from a government that cannot find its way to providing effective governance. Yes, it will keep the RSS loyal; and yes, it will stay on-message. It's clear that that is what Modi believes will win 2019 - not delivery, and not governance.
(Mihir Swarup Sharma is a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.