Polymarket Bets Spike On Talk Of Trump Releasing UFO Files

A recent tweet by Polymarket - declaring a 12 per cent chance that "aliens being confirmed" could be officially acknowledged in 2025 - has stirred fresh debate around UFO disclosures. The moment gained traction as traders piled into a parallel contract: whether the Trump administration would declassify previously classified UFO/UAP files before the end of this year. 

BREAKING: The odds of aliens being confirmed are soaring, amid reportedly imminent UFO disclosures.

12% chance.https://t.co/cE1FTgiXtR

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 7, 2025

In a dramatic pivot for the contract, odds soared from single digits on December 7 to as high as the mid-70s within hours - briefly touching 81 per cent, according to platform data. Market watchers say aggressive purchases by a single trader triggered a cascade of confidence, hinting at possible 'smart-money' placing their bets. 

Under the rules, the contract resolves only if the US government officially releases previously classified documents, videos or reports relating to UFOs, or credible mainstream reporting provides equivalent disclosure - vague hints or leaks do not qualify. That rigour has not dissuaded traders: more than US $233,000 has reportedly flowed into the contract at share prices of around 76 to 77 cents. 

This flurry of activity has revived global conversation about what the government might disclose - and why. Though the Trump administration has not issued any formal statement confirming plans to declassify UFO files, speculation is rising rapidly that something significant may be on the horizon. 

The developments are a curious echo of growing worldwide demand for transparency in unexplained aerial phenomena (UAPs), and the enduring fascination with "are we alone?" A contract with almost 80 per cent odds is being treated by some as a wild bet; by others, as a discreet barometre of insider confidence.

Observers warn - especially given the history of betting markets driven by large players - that these odds may reflect strong conviction or simply heavy capital flow, not a guarantee of disclosure. 

Until there is official confirmation, what we have is a market mood - and a viral tweet - not a confirmed announcement. But the speed and size of the surge on Polymarket suggest one thing: for many, the possibility of a UFO files dump - and perhaps something more - now seems real.