Will Priyanka Gandhi Rise From The Northeast? A Look At Assam Election Dynamics

Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is playing a much larger role in Assam ahead of the election this year, if the circumstances and her recent moves were to be analysed.

It began with the Congress party, for the first time, appointing a member of the Gandhi family as the chairperson of a state's candidate screening committee. This is where Priyanka Gandhi comes in. She will be responsible for deciding who all gets to contest the assembly election from the Congress in the northeast state, where the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma will undoubtedly put up a formidable defence.

But why Assam?

The strategy behind the decision to make Priyanka Gandhi the Congress's Assam screening committee chairperson was likely influenced by alliance politics.

The arc of the matter goes somewhat like this: the Assam Congress president, Gaurav Gogoi, is a young leader; his father Tarun Gogoi had been Assam chief minister several times and close to the Gandhi family. The younger Gogoi is also the Congress Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha, meaning he could be No. 2 in the Congress parliamentary party after Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi. Leaders like Gaurav Gogoi, Sachin Pilot, and Jitu Patwari are seen as the faces of Congress's new generation of leaders.

However, in Assam, Gaurav Gogoi may need a strong push to take on the BJP's Himanta Sarma. Priyanka Gandhi's role may give that push, political analysts say. They say Gaurav Gogoi may not be able to take the offensive to the BJP's fortress in the coming election, but it may be possible five years down the line.

There's probably another factor behind Priyanka Gandhi's Assam involvement i.e. data from the state shows that elections in this state were essentially fought between alliances.

For example, in the last election, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 75 seats in the 126-member assembly, while the Congress-led Mahajot alliance got 50.

In vote percentage, the NDA got 43.9 per cent, while the Mahajot got 42.3 per cent, meaning the difference was only 1.6 per cent. This showed that if the Opposition bloc INDIA forms a strong coalition with regional parties in Assam, the NDA could be challenged. For this, the selection of the right candidates is critical, as allegations of nepotism and selling tickets for money often surfaced in the Congress party's candidate selection process, political analysts have said.

With Priyanka Gandhi at the helm, these allegations may not arise, they added.

There are also many small parties in Assam that split into different alliances during elections. Congress sources said that all things considered, including Priyanka Gandhi's performance in the Lok Sabha election, the signs point to a potentially much larger role for her in the Congress party.

The Congress has formed screening committees for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Assam, and West Bengal. The committees select the best candidates, rank them in order of preference, and give them to the Congress's central election committee. The final decision on this panel of candidates is taken by this committee.

In addition to Priyanka Gandhi, the Assam screening committee includes two other members along with Imran Masood, the Congress MP from Uttar Pradesh's Saharanpur.

Masood recently said he supported Priyanka Gandhi's bid, if any, in future for prime ministership. That comment drew significant attention.

"Make Priyanka Gandhi the prime minister; she will respond to Bangladesh like Indira Gandhi. She is Indira Gandhi's granddaughter," Masood said in response to a question on attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh.

Now, the same Congress MP is part of the same screening committee where Priyanka Gandhi is the chairperson.