The Congress high command has begun a series of meetings regarding the five Assembly elections scheduled for April-May. Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge will hold an important meeting with senior Tamil Nadu Congress leaders later today, after which it is expected that the suspense over Congress's future strategy in Tamil Nadu may finally end. In fact, Congress has had an alliance with DMK in Tamil Nadu for nearly two decades. But now some leaders in the state Congress are advocating for an alliance with actor Vijay's party, TVK. However, it is still unclear whether Congress will be able to distance itself from its old ally DMK for the sake of a new party.
Deadlock over seat-sharing and power-sharing
In Tamil Nadu, DMK limits its alliances with Congress and other partners only to elections, without sharing power in government. But this time, just before the elections, Congress is demanding a share in governance. According to sources, Congress wants at least six ministerial posts in the Stalin government. However, DMK leaders have made it clear that there is no scope to include Congress in the government.
DMK's offer: 19 seats; Congress's demand: 35
Alongside power-sharing, seat-sharing talks between Congress and DMK have also failed. In the 2021 Assembly elections, Congress got 25 seats. This time, Congress expected more. But according to sources, DMK is offering only 19 seats. On the other hand, Congress is citing previous elections to demand many more seats.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, Congress got 41 seats; in 2011, 63 seats; and in 2006, 48 seats. Sources say that for the 2026 elections, Congress wants to secure around 35 seats from DMK. In fact, Congress began bargaining from 60-70 seats. The party had hoped to finalise the seat-sharing formula by December 15, but even a month after that deadline, talks have not succeeded.
Why does TVK appeal to Congress?
Senior Congress sources say TVK is not only ready to give Congress more than 60 seats, but also willing to make it a partner in government if it comes to power.
Congress's survey shows TVK strong
According to sources, Congress's internal survey shows TVK getting about 30 per cent of the vote. Clearly, Congress feels that with Vijay's popularity, it can escape DMK's "grip" in Tamil Nadu. Vijay's popularity extends to other southern states as well. He belongs to the Christian faith, and Congress believes his support could help it consolidate Christian votes in Kerala too.
Rahul Gandhi openly backs Vijay
Recently, Rahul Gandhi supported Vijay's film Jana Nayagan, which remains caught between the censor board and a pending court verdict. Earlier, after the Karur stampede, Rahul Gandhi had spoken to Vijay on the phone. Congress leader Praveen Chakravarty, close to Rahul Gandhi, not only met Vijay some time ago but also openly questioned DMK government's financial management.
Is the Congress high command leaning towards TVK?
According to sources close to the Congress leadership, they believe it is better to go with the party that offers Congress a better "deal". However, most state leaders are advocating for the DMK because of their own "electoral convenience". Clearly, in Saturday's meeting with senior Tamil Nadu Congress leaders, Rahul Gandhi and Kharge will discuss seat-sharing and power-sharing with DMK, and the issue of alliance with TVK may also be raised. Some indication of the Congress high command's stance towards TVK is expected from this meeting.
The bigger challenge
However, leaving an old ally like DMK and experimenting with a new partner will not be easy for Congress. Experts believe that Congress is merely using TVK as leverage to pressure DMK. Congress no longer has its own mass base in Tamil Nadu. Thanks to DMK, the UPA and INDIA alliance swept the last two Lok Sabha elections. From the perspective of national politics, DMK is very important for Congress. In such a situation, the Congress high command may sacrifice state-level interests.
Since 1967, Congress has not been able to make its own Chief Minister in Tamil Nadu. The question remains: will Congress gain anything from bargaining with DMK, or will it attempt a new experiment in Tamil Nadu this time?
