The 7 X Factors In Bihar Assembly Election 2025

Bihar faces a unique assembly election again. It is the first election to be held in the state after the Election Commission (EC) carried out the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise - a process the EC described as necessary for updating the electoral rolls. But the SIR exercise ran into controversy after the Opposition alleged it would exclude genuine voters, and took the matter to the Supreme Court.

The last assembly election in late 2020 was also unique due to the Covid pandemic, which swept across the globe and affected nearly every nation including India. The tragic exodus of thousands and thousands of migrant workers from Bihar walking home amid the Covid lockdown had become a defining issue in the election back then.

This time, while the SIR exercise controversy is a big issue, it has gradually changed into a topic of routine political mudslinging with leaders like Congress MP Rahul Gandhi alleging "vote chori (theft)".

In the kaleidoscopic landscape of Bihar's political arena, this year's assembly election is poised to be a defining moment, not just for the state, but for the intricate fabric of Indian democracy itself.

Over two decades of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's leadership has brought with it a unique set of challenges and opportunities, creating a volatile cocktail of factors that will shape the electoral fate of the region.

With a month left for the election campaign, in which direction is the wind blowing in Bihar? What are the main X factors in the Bihar assembly election that will decide the outcome on November 14 when votes would be counted?

The seven X factors outlined here encapsulate the pulse of Bihar - a state where the echoes of history, the cries of youth, and the whispers of women converge to create a complex narrative.

Unemployment Top Election Issue

The real issue in Bihar this election is unemployment. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the BJP and Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar increasingly face pressures from young and first-time voters who are demanding jobs.

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to have sensed this. He has made employment for young people the No. 1 issue in his election campaign. Jan Suraaj, the outfit formed by former election strategy consultant Prashant Kishor, has also taken up the issue of creating jobs for the state's young population as a top priority.

Opposition parties have alleged widespread discontentment among young people against the ruling alliance, which would put the alliance at risk of facing strong anti-incumbency.

So it is clear that at the heart of the electoral tempest lies the issue of unemployment. The NDA, having held sway for 20 years, faces an unprecedented wave of anti-incumbency fueled by a lack of job opportunities. Although the official rate of unemployment in Bihar as per the NITI Aayog was 3.9 per cent  in 2022-23 (average for India was 3.2 per cent), underemployment is extremely high given that Bihar is largely agrarian and rural (only 11 per cent urban according to the 2011 Census).

The youth, who were once the hopeful architects of a new Bihar, are today disillusioned and their dreams stifled by stagnation. This silent storm of discontent is an omnipresent backdrop to the electoral narrative, compelling voters to question the very foundation of Nitish Kumar's long tenure.

Unemployed youths who feel largely alienated form the main support base of the anti-incumbency wave being led by Congress's Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor.

Out-Migration

While a large number of migrant workers from Bihar are present across the country, the state is seeing an alarming rise in the number of workers leaving due to lack of opportunities in the state. It would not be wrong to say out-migration from Bihar is a result of unemployment, the main issue. Bihar's economy is sometimes called a remittance economy due to the high rate of out-migration.

The out-migration of Bihari youth is a poignant testament to the state's struggle. As young dreamers leave for greener pastures - be it for education or employment - their exodus serves as an indictment of the local system.

This migration not only depletes the state of its potential, but also creates a disconnect between the electorate and the political class, as many who once dreamt of a prosperous Bihar are now crafting their futures elsewhere.

The EC announced Bihar will vote in two phases on November 6 and 11. This is after Bihar's most important festival, Chhath Puja, during which a majority of migrant workers return home to celebrate with their families. It shows the EC optimising the voting schedule for the maximum turnout possible. Votes will be counted on November 14.

Corruption

Corruption has become a spectre haunting the corridors of power. Allegations of wrongdoing, particularly involving the liquor and sand mafias, have surfaced in a cacophony of accusations aimed at NDA politicians and bureaucrats.

While not a new election issue, the entry of Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj has given a new angle to look at this issue, especially by young voters. Prashant Kishor's message to them seems to suggest they should reject corrupt leaders who have been in politics all their lives.

For example, he has been aiming surgically at some ruling leaders like state minister Ashok Choudhary, who he alleged amassed illegal assets worth Rs 200 crore and took huge commissions on government contracts. In response, the minister sent a Rs 100 crore defamation notice against the Jan Suraaj founder.

The entire episode had the effect of broadcasting Prashant Kishor as someone who is different - a key to finding support among young voters.

Nitish Kumar received a lot of support from among female voters for his government's decision to ban liquor in the state in 2016. Years later, however, allegations of liquor mafia appearing across the state have become common, turning them into campaign ammunition for the Opposition.

In an age where transparency is demanded, the shadows of corruption loom large, further eroding the credibility of the ruling coalition.

Special Intensive Revision (SIR)

The first SIR exercise in the country received widespread criticism from Opposition leaders, the most vocal being Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, who alleged the EC in collusion with the ruling BJP facilitated the addition and deletion of names in voter lists.

The EC refuted the allegations as malicious. However, Rahul Gandhi kept pressing on, even using words like "vote chori (theft)." After the EC published the final voter roll following the SIR exercise, the BJP launched a scathing attack on the Congress.

"This so-called 'vote chori' narrative is nothing but a sham - a pretext to mask impending electoral defeats and undermine India's faith in the democratic process. A page straight out of George Soros's playbook, which Rahul Gandhi foolishly believes can resurrect his beleaguered party," BJP leader Amit Malviya said.

In the voter roll revision done after a gap of 22 years, 65 lakh voters had been removed from the draft rolls, including those who had died, permanently moved out of Bihar, or got registered as voters in multiple locations. In the final rolls, the number of voters rose by 18 lakh compared to the draft list.

The Opposition's "vote chori" campaign somewhat resonates among the populace, as trust in the electoral process becomes paramount in a time when democracy itself is under scrutiny.

Women Voters

Nitish Kumar's liquor ban policy made him a favourite among women. The families of alcoholic men could not have asked for a better policy. In addition to this, Nitish Kumar has the advantage of maturity in age - he has over 30 more years of experience than his nearest rival, Tejashwi Yadav. This advantage has up to an extent helped cancel out the anti-incumbency pressure that Nitish Kumar gets from young voters.

In this intricate tapestry, women voters emerge as a pivotal force. Nitish Kumar's public policies - from alcohol prohibition to direct financial transfers to women - have brought significant support from female constituents.

Their backing acts as a counterbalance to the anti-incumbency sentiment prevalent among the youth. The Rs 10,000 for 75 lakh women announced recently by Prime Minister Nareandra Modi and Nitish Kumar is perceived as a game-changer in Bihar politics, like the Ladli Behena scheme in Madhya Pradesh and Ladki Bahin in Maharashtra, both of which were announced ahead of elections.

This interplay between gender and politics illustrates a nuanced dynamic where women's votes may very well determine the electoral outcome, transcending the generational divide.

Education Quality

Like unemployment, the declining quality of education in schools and colleges across Bihar has alarmed experts. This problem is compounded by frequent question paper leaks. The most infamous paper leak case concerned the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) 2024 question paper, which was stolen from a National Testing Agency (NTA) trunk in Hazaribagh and sold to medical aspirants.

The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Bihar's Economic Offences Unit (EOU) arrested multiple suspects, including alleged masterminds and key orchestrators. Higher education students, who are essentially young voters, see such incidents as betrayal of their trust in the system, which is supposed to keep competition healthy and fair.

While the infrastructure of education has expanded, quality remains a pressing concern. The proliferation of schools and colleges has not translated into improved educational outcomes; rather, Bihar stands at a crossroads where quantity has outstripped quality.

Regular stories of examination paper leaks and open copying in exams have created massive scandals. The youth's discontent, exacerbated by a failing educational system, becomes a fertile ground for political mobilisation as candidates grapple with the challenge of restoring faith in education.

Prashant Kishor's agenda is focusing on education and creating schools similar to Netarhat (residential school near Jharkhand's Ranchi) in every district of Bihar. This has been received well by young people and educated urban voters, among whom Prashant Kishor's popularity is surging.

Illegal Immigrants

The BJP has raised the issue of a large presence of illegal immigrants in the Seemanchal region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also explicitly stated the dangers that this poses to demographics.

This strategy, while risky, reflects a calculated attempt to unite disparate caste groups under a singular Hindu identity. By framing the immigration debate through a religious lens, the BJP seeks to consolidate Hindu voters.

Illegal immigration especially from Bangladesh has been among the most important political causes and national security concerns in the country. Over the last few months, India has seen crackdowns at regional levels to identify Bangladeshis living illegally.

Opposition parties including the Congress have alleged the claim about illegal immigrants in Seemanchal is a lie to polarise voters.

In the final electoral roll, the minority-dominated Seemanchal region recorded the highest voter deletion rate (7.7 per cent) among Bihar's key regions. This region comprises four districts - Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria - and has an average Muslim population of 48 per cent.

In Conclusion

Declining health standards in hospitals, abject poverty in the northern regions of Mithilanchal and Seemanchal, rising inequality among castes and classes, and among urban areas and the vast countryside are other issues creating grievances among the populace.

Some of them are likely to act as fuel for the anti-incumbency fire if the NDA doesn't focus on them during the month-long campaign.

Overall, the Bihar assembly election 2025 promises to be a compelling spectacle -a reflection of the state's aspirations, grievances, and evolving social dynamics. As the electorate navigates these seven X factors, the outcome will not only shape Bihar's future but also serve as a microcosm of the broader national narrative.

In this land where the past and present are inextricably linked, the choices made at the ballot box will resonate far beyond the confines of state politics, echoing into the heart of Indian democracy itself.