Post-Monsoon Weather: Less Rain In October, But Winter May Bring Relief

The month of October is likely to see warmer and drier days across much of India, but the country's weather story could change as the post-monsoon season progresses. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects below-normal rainfall across large parts of India, its October-December outlook points to normal or above-normal rain in some important regions. The southwest monsoon ended on September 30 with India recording a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, making 2026 one of the weaker monsoon years in recent decades. The country received 759.4 mm of rain against the normal 868.6 mm during June-September, according to the IMD.

One of the main reasons for rainfall deficit this monsoon was the prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific region which emerged in June, and have been strengthening since then, as per IMD's monthly forecast.

Currently, strong El Nino conditions are prevailing and may persist till March 2027, it said.

Will October Bridge The Deficit?

The weather department expects October rainfall to be below normal, with the country likely to receive less than 85 per cent of its long-period average rainfall during the month. At the same time, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of India.

That does not mean rain will disappear immediately. The IMD expects rainfall over several parts of eastern, southern and northeastern India during the first week of October, with isolated heavy rain possible in some areas. Uttarakhand, parts of central and eastern India and several southern states are among the regions that could see showers in the opening days of the month.

Winter Rains Could Bring Some Relief

For October to December period, the IMD expects rainfall to remain below normal over most parts of India. However, some parts of northwest India, including Punjab, parts of Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, could receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the period.

That could be significant for regions that ended the southwest monsoon with rainfall deficits. Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, for instance, recorded deficient rainfall during the monsoon season.

A Different Weather Story In South India

The northeast monsoon is expected to become important from the second half of October. The IMD expects the northeast monsoon to arrive over southern India around October 15-21. It has forecast normal rainfall during the October-December season for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.

The rainfall is particularly important for Tamil Nadu and neighbouring areas. South Peninsular India typically receives about 30 per cent of its annual rainfall from the northeast monsoon, while Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal receive around 48 per cent of their annual rainfall during this season.

When Will Winter Arrive?

A warmer October does not necessarily mean winter will arrive late everywhere. The IMD's current forecast is primarily a rainfall and temperature outlook for October and the broader post-monsoon season; it does not provide a precise nationwide date for the arrival of winter.

For now, the weather transition is expected to be gradual: October could remain warmer than normal in much of India, while rainfall shifts from the withdrawing southwest monsoon to the northeast monsoon in the south.