Prashant Kishor said it is a part of his "job to not underestimate the competition"
The BJP is a formidable political force in Bengal and cannot be underestimated, poll strategist Prashant Kishor said today, defending a candid chat on the social media app Clubhouse in which he appeared to predict better results for the BJP in the state elections. He asserted, however, that Mamata Banerjee remained the most powerful leader in the state and was set to win by a wide margin.
"Make no mistake. The BJP is a formidable political force in Bengal and there are no two ways about it. But after factoring in everything, the BJP will not cross 100 and the Trinamool is going to win... and they are winning big," Prashant Kishor told NDTV after his Clubhouse comments with journalists caused a sensation on the weekend. The BJP, sharing clips of the conversation, said the strategist had unwittingly described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a popular leader in Bengal and had listed factors favouring the BJP in the state polls without realizing the chat was public.
"How can they say a chat on a public platform was 'leaked'? Someone said on the chat that people are tweeting about it. I said 'If they are hearing then what's the problem'," Mr Kishor, Mamata Banerjee's poll strategist for the Bengal election, said in the exclusive interview.
On Saturday, several BJP leaders shared links to Mr Kishor's chat saying he had all but conceded the election and had virtually declared a BJP victory. Mr Kishor was heard saying in the clips that there was a Modi in the entire country. In one of the clips, he appeared to ask whether it was an open chat when a journalist said people were tweeting about it.
Some reports claimed the chat betrayed that Mr Kishor was still a closet supporter of PM Modi, whose victorious 2014 campaign was the first milestone in his career as election strategist. "Judge a person by his actions, not his words. Since 2015, when the I-PAC was formed, we have only worked in various states for parties against the BJP," he shot back.
"Part of my job as a strategist is to not underestimate the competition," said Mr Kishor.
"If I assess, understand and acknowledge the strength of my opponent and include that in my strategy that does not mean I am a fan of that opponent. As a planner, political aide, my way is not to underestimate my opponent. If the assessment says Modi's popularity is 40, I will make it 50."
Mr Kishor said he was explaining to journalists the people who most likely to vote BJP in Bengal.
"The 40 per cent votes that the BJP is getting is because of the Prime Minister's popularity, polarization and the support of Dalits and those of Hindi-speaking people. The problem in our country is that we reduce all discussion to binaries - yes or no. The BJP is powerful but it can also lose the election. There is a lot of difference between being powerful and winning the election. The Trinamool is far more powerful and its vote share will be more than 45 per cent, so it will win decisively," he declared.
"I agree that it is a very close fight in the first four rounds, but it means that the BJP, even in its strongholds, is in a tight race with the Trinamool," said Mr Kishor.
Asserting that nothing in his assessment was secret, he said he had sensed that anti-incumbency was one big factor favouring the BJP. "A person like me needs to assess anti-incumbency - how much, whether it is local, whether against the party, or Mamata Banerjee. I feel localized it is localized and largely targeted at local leaders. Mamata Banerjee is still the most loved, trusted and popular leader in Bengal," he said.
According to him, women were voting in large numbers for the 63-year-old Chief Minister.
Even the poll schedule prepared by the Election Commission was apparently designed to favour one side, Mr Kishor said, adding quickly that he didn't mean to question the poll body.
"The Trinamool's strongholds are voting in the later rounds and the BJP strongholds voted in the first few phases. This sort of scheduling helps create a so-called BJP wave along with their propaganda machinery and infinite resources. It gives them a psychological advantage. The schedule should have been fair and transparent. I have never seen this sort of schedule till now. The same district is voting in three phases," Mr Kishor said.