India To Receive Above Normal Rainfall This Monsoon

Southwest monsoon rainfall over India is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average, India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday. This projection is more than the 105 per cent forecast in the April update.

The Long Period Average rainfall in India is 868.6 mm.

The IMD said that above normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September) 2025.

Region wise, the southwest monsoon rainfall is projected to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (>106 per cent of Long Period Average), normal over Northwest India (92-108 per cent of Long Period Average) and below normal over Northeast India (<94% of LPA).><94 per cent of Long Period Average).

"During June to September 2025, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and East India and many areas of Northeast India where below normal rainfall is very likely," IMD said in a statement.

In forecast for June, the state-owned weather office said the average rainfall for the country is most likely to be above normal (>108 per cent of the Long Period Average).

"During June 2025, Normal to above normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is likely," IMD said.

IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.

The country as a whole received 28.3 per cent higher rainfall since March at 155 mm. Northwest India; East and Northeast India received deficient rainfall, while central India and South peninsular India received excess rainfall.

Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources but also poses risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems.

Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, a week earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival on the Indian mainland since 2009. The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon is June 1.

Monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country's manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

As per the latest IMD update, meteorological conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, some more parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, most parts of westcentral and some more parts of North Bay of Bengal and remaining parts Northeastern states and some parts of West Bengal and Sikkim during next 2-3 days.

During the past five years, the monsoon has onset early on two occasions - 2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data. IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.

In 2024, the southwest monsoon rains in India hit a four-year high, experiencing about 108 per cent of the long-period average at 934.8 mm, data made available by the state-run weather bureau showed.

IMD's operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2020-2024) is in the table below.

Above-normal monsoon rains help farmers to sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector. Agriculture is the mainstay source of livelihoods for millions of Indians. Traditionally, Indian agriculture, especially the Kharif season, relies heavily on monsoon rainfall.

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