Analysis: Raj Thackeray's Inconsistent Politics And Its Fallout

Raj Thackeray has been a prominent figure in Maharashtra's political sphere for the last three decades. Known for his oratory skills, he often makes headlines during election seasons. However, after a humiliating defeat in the assembly election that decimated his party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), questions were being raised about his relevance in politics.

On Wednesday last, he announced an alliance with his cousin, Uddhav Thackeray.

Let's have a look at the circumstances which compelled Raj Thackeray to join hands with Uddhav Thackeray, who was his fierce rival till a year ago.

The MNS, which won 13 seats in its debut assembly election in 2009 and posed a significant challenge to the Shiv Sena led by his cousin Uddhav Thackeray, has now been reduced to near insignificance.

So, what went wrong for Raj Thackeray?

Based on years of observing his political trajectory and speaking to his close associates, here are three key reasons:

Ideological Inconsistency

When Raj Thackeray broke away from the Shiv Sena in 2005 and launched his own party the following year, he chose to champion the Marathi cause. The MNS agenda focused on driving out "outsiders" who were allegedly taking jobs from locals and undermining Marathi culture in cinema, FM radio, and shop signage. His tirades against people from north India made headlines and even led to riots in 2008 after a provocative speech that resulted in his arrest. He maintained that his only allegiance was to "Maharashtra Dharma," steering clear of communal politics.

However, in January 2020, he shifted gears and adopted Hindutva as his party's ideology. He replaced the party's multi-coloured flag with a saffron one and protested against loudspeakers in mosques by playing the Hanuman Chalisa. His supporters were asked to call him "Hindu Jana Nayak," much like Bal Thackeray was called "Hindu Hriday Samrat." Again, before the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), he has returned to his anti-Hindi, anti-north Indian stance. This ideological flip-flop alienated voters, who struggled to reconcile the shift with his earlier stance.

Not Learning From Mistakes

Raj Thackeray's stance towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been inconsistent. In 2011, he praised PM Modi after visiting Gujarat. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, he expressed support for him while parallely fielding MNS candidates in constituencies where the BJP's ally, Shiv Sena, was contesting. This contradictory approach backfired, and the MNS failed to win a single seat.

In 2019, Thackeray took an anti-Modi stance during his rallies, using video clips to accuse PM Modi of hypocrisy. He opposed PM Modi's bullet train project, claiming it favoured Gujarat over Maharashtra. However, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that after being summoned by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Thackeray stopped his criticism of PM Modi. Later, he even offered "unconditional support" to PM Modi for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

MNS General Secretary Vageesh Saraswat said the party's inconsistent approach was evident in the 2024 assembly elections as well. "If you are saying that Mahayuti will come to power and Devendra Fadnavis will become the chief minister, why would people vote for MNS candidates?" he said.

Many political observers believe that Thackeray's frequent volte-faces have left voters confused about his vision and intentions.

Unconventional Decisions

In a democracy, political parties aim to secure power by winning elections. However, ahead of the 2019 assembly election, Thackeray announced that his party was contesting to sit in the opposition. This baffled both the public and political pundits. Why would voters support a party that openly declared it had no intention of forming a government or to be a part of the government?

Such statements undermined the party's credibility, as people typically vote for parties they believe can address their concerns by becoming part of the government.

What's Next

Many experts had written off Raj Thackeray from Maharashtra's political landscape after the debacle in the assembly election. However, he still has a chance to reclaim relevance in the upcoming civic body elections, including those for the BMC. In the last BMC elections, the MNS managed to secure seven corporators, but six of them defected to the Shiv Sena.

It will be known only on January 16, 2026, when poll results will be declared, whether Raj Thackeray can stage a political comeback or if this marks the end of the road for the MNS.