Advantage BJP As 37 Seats Up For Grabs In Big Rajya Sabha Battle

The race for the Rajya Sabha is set to intensify with elections to 37 seats across 10 states scheduled for March 16, and early trends suggest the BJP-led NDA could further consolidate its position in the Upper House. For the opposition, the crucial question is whether their alliance will hold, given the opposing interests of the constituent parties in multiple states - including Maharashtra, Bihar and Bengal. 

The BJP currently has 103 members in the 245 member Rajya Sabha, its highest-ever tally. With allies included, the NDA's strength stands at around 133 -- comfortably above the majority mark of 122. 

Party insiders say the numbers are only expected to improve as the election cycle progresses through the year.

Internal estimates indicate the NDA could win at least 21 seats. Over the full year, elections will be held for 71 seats, and the alliance is aiming to cross the 40-mark. 

Maharashtra, Bihar A Plus For NDA, Trouble For Opposition
Sources told NDTV that gains in key states such as Maharashtra and Bihar are likely to play a decisive role for the BJP.  In Maharashtra, the party has 131 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly, and in Bihar it has 89 in a House of 243. These numbers are expected to translate into a chunk of additional Rajya Sabha seats for the party and its allies.

Maharashtra and Bihar remain crucial to the NDA's expansion plans. 
In Maharashtra, seat sharing within the ruling Mahayuti alliance will be key, with negotiations involving the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena and the NCP faction led by Sunetra Pawar expected to shape outcomes. In Bihar, Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan's growing influence is also likely to factor into the final arithmetic.

For the Opposition, Maharashtra will be a challenge, with prominent leaders like Sharad Pawar, Fauzia Khan from his faction of the Nationalist Congress Party, Priyanka Chaturvedi from the Shiv Sena, and Rajni Patil from the Congress hoping to get picked. Only one candidate has a definite chance of winning and the competition will be tight for the definite seat.

Sharad Pawar had previously said that he would not contest the Rajya Sabha election this time, but now there are reports that he considering running.

The India Alliance's second disappointment is likely to come from Bihar, where again, just one candidate can win. Following the disastrous performance of the Opposition in the recent assembly election, they are set to lose two more seats.

Advantage BJP 

The BJP also holds a clear advantage in several other states going into the polls - including Assam, where three seats are vacant, and in Odisha, which will see elections to four seats.

The party is also in a favourable position in Haryana and Chhattisgarh, where two seats each are up for grabs. In West Bengal, the BJP is expected to secure at least one seat, while in Tamil Nadu the current balance is likely to remain unchanged.

Advantage INDIA Bloc

The only relief for the India Alliance can come from Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, they are expected to get the maximum number of seats.

Four out of six seats in Tamil Nadu will go to DMK and four out of five seats in West Bengal will go to Trinamool Congress. 

The Congress will retain both seats in Telangana, one seat each in Chhattisgarh and Haryana and the only seat from Himachal Pradesh.

The opposition has 79 MPs in the 245-member upper house -- 27 from Congress, 12 from Trinamool Congress, 10 from DMK, 5 from RJD, 4 each from Samajwadi Party and CPM, and MPs from other opposition parties. In the current situation, a maximum of 14 
candidates of India Alliance can win.

NDA's Big Names For Upper House 

There is also speculation within the BJP that new party Nitin Nabin could be sent to Rajya Sabha for the first time. Sources, however, indicate he may continue in the Bihar Assembly for now -- a precedent seen earlier with leaders like Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah during their tenures as party chief.

Several high-profile retirements are due this year, including Union ministers Ramdas Athawale and Ramnath Thakur, both of whom are expected to return to the Upper House. The term of Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh is also ending in April, and if he is not renominated, the House may need to elect a new deputy chairman.

With multiple phases of elections scheduled through June, July and November, the BJP sees an opportunity not just to expand its numbers but also to send a broader political message in key states such as Assam and West Bengal by carefully balancing social and regional representation in its candidate selection.

While the final outcome will depend on alliance management and state specific equations, the direction is clear. The NDA is poised to tighten its hold on the Rajya Sabha, bringing the BJP closer to securing a majority on its own in the Upper House.