With a reported budget running into thousands of crores, Nitesh Tiwari's Ramayana is already being positioned as one of the biggest cinematic gambles in Indian film history. Starring Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, and Sai Pallavi, and backed by producers Namit Malhotra and Yash, the mythological epic carries enormous expectations.
But can it actually recover its investment, challenge the records set by films such as Dhurandhar 2, and become India's highest-grossing film? And how will it perform globally, particularly in China, given that Nitesh Tiwari's Dangal was a major success there? NDTV spoke to trade experts Ramesh Bala, Akshaye Rathi, and Komal Nahta to understand the film's box office prospects.
Opening Day: Can Ramayana Challenge Dhurandhar 2?
The three trade experts agree on one thing: Ramayana is headed for a huge opening.
Trade analyst Ramesh Bala expects the film to collect around Rs 125 crore gross in India on its opening day. "I think Ramayana will mint probably Rs 125 crores or something in India." Dhurandhar 2 earned Rs 102.55 crore in India on day 1, as reported by trade tracker Sacnilk.
However, Bala believes comparisons with Dhurandhar 2 are complicated. "Dhurandhar 2 is obviously a sequel, so it had a lot of hype going on, and it had a good opening all over India."
He points out that Ramayana has the advantages of premium formats such as IMAX and a strong appeal in North India. "The Hindi version will certainly do better because Ramayana has the advantage of IMAX."
According to him, the film is likely to open strongest in the Hindi belt. "I think it will do a very good opening in northern states like the Hindi Belt."
Trade exhibitor and analyst Akshaye Rathi is slightly more conservative, predicting a nationwide opening of over Rs 100 crore gross across languages.
"We are still looking at a gross box office on day one of close to 100 crores between all the languages across the country." Rathi believes the release timing may slightly affect the opening numbers. "This is the pre-Diwali period where most Indians are out socialising, doing their Diwali shopping and preparations."
Similarly, veteran trade analyst Komal Nahta does not see Ramayana surpassing Dhurandhar 2 on Day 1. "It is unfair to compare it to Dhurandhar 2 because it's releasing in a very dull period. So obviously it won't cross Dhurandhar 2."
His estimate is also around the century mark. "I think day one Hindi should collect around Rs 60 crore, and all languages could be Rs 100 crore or more."
The Ramayana Advantage: A Story Every Indian Knows
While the experts differ on numbers, they unanimously agree that Ramayana enjoys a unique advantage few Indian films have had before.
Bala says the film has all the ingredients of a massive blockbuster. "We haven't watched Ramayan or Mahabharat on the big screen a lot of times; it's mostly related to TV till now."
He adds, "Ranbir, Yash, Sai Pallavi, big stars, and AR Rahman. This movie has got everything in it to be a grand spectacle."
Rathi believes the combination of mythology, star power, and visual spectacle creates a near-perfect box-office package. "Ranbir Kapoor and Yash, in the telling of a story that all of us Indians have grown up listening to from our parents and grandparents, is a recipe for absolute fireworks at the box office."
He also sheds light on the contribution of Oscar-winning VFX giant DNEG. "Directed by somebody as brilliant as Nitesh Tiwari, with a scale and spectacle value being given by an Oscar-winning company like DNEG."
Can China Become Ramayana's Biggest Overseas Market?
China remains one of the biggest talking points surrounding the film. However, trade experts are divided. Bala adopts a cautious stance despite Nitesh Tiwari's success with Dangal. "Dangal worked because of various reasons. He adds, "The director is the same, but the genre is different, and it is Indian mythology, which I'm not sure how many people may be aware of."
Bala, therefore, prefers to wait before making bold predictions. "I wouldn't be very upbeat about China right now." Rathi is far more optimistic. "I see no reason why, with the right kind of marketing and the right kind of appeal, it can do well, not just in China, but in many markets."
He argues that for international audiences, Ramayana is effectively a completely fresh story. "For people who are not Indians, it's actually a completely new tale."
Komal Nahta is also bullish on the Chinese market. "I'm very hopeful that it will love it because this kind of film coming from India will do very well." Drawing parallels with films such as Dangal and Bajrangi Bhaijaan, he says, "Women-centric stories do very well there."
According to Nahta, the emotional journey of Sita could connect with Chinese audiences in a similar way.
Can Ramayana Recover Its Investment?
No discussion around Ramayana is complete without addressing its reported budget, which is Rs 4,000 crore. Interestingly, all three experts urge caution regarding the widely circulated figure.
Bala says, "One thing is there; Rs 4,000 crores may be for two parts combined." He also notes that many costs could be lower because producer Namit Malhotra owns the VFX company working on the project. "We don't know whether it is Rs 2,000 crores for part one. Anybody's guess."
Nahta says, "According to me, part one is around Rs 1,200 crore max." Yet all three believe the project has a realistic path towards profitability.
Bala says non-theatrical revenue will play an important role. "OTT, satellite rights are there; non-theatrical rights are there." More importantly, he believes repeat viewing could determine the film's final outcome. "Movies which have done well have had a lot of repeat watch."
His conclusion, "It has the potential to recover the budget."
Rathi views the film as a larger win for Indian cinema regardless of its eventual box-office total. "What Mr Namit Malhotra is doing is not just making a great film but potentially opening up the doors for Indian cinema across the world."
Nahta is also optimistic. "I hope so. I feel it will yield a lot of profits."
Can Ramayana Beat Dhurandhar 2 In Lifetime Collections?
This is perhaps the biggest question. Bala believes the potential certainly exists. "On paper, yes."He explains, "It has got a great story, a great production, great music, and great actors."
Yet he also offers a word of caution. "The ingredients are there. Whether they have cooked it well, that's what you have to see."
Rathi goes even further. "It has all the elements and the potential to become the highest-grossing Indian film of all time. " Nahta remains more measured, refusing to make a definitive call before release. "Very difficult to say."
How Much Could Ramayana Earn Worldwide?
The experts once again offer different projections. Bala expects a strong run if audience reactions are positive. "It has the potential to collect huge numbers like 1,000-1,500 crores theatrically."
Later, he adds, "I think it will certainly do some Rs 1,000 crores."
Nahta shares his take and says, "Could be Rs 1,500, could be Rs 1,600, could be Rs 1,700. India."
Rathi refrains from offering a figure but believes the ceiling is unprecedented. "It has the potential to become the highest-grossing Indian film worldwide."
Premium Ticket Pricing: Smart Strategy Or Risky Move?
Reports of IMAX tickets crossing Rs 1,000-Rs 2,000 have sparked heated debate. Bala sees the strategy working in the short term. "The makers will cash in on high ticket price."
But he expects prices to drop after the opening week. "I'm expecting ticket prices to go down, and it may not remain as high."
Nahta agrees. "It's not a bad strategy because they have invested so heavily." He adds, "If you can't afford it, then you'll have to wait. Or see it in non-IMAX."
The Verdict: A Blockbuster Waiting To Happen?
If there is one conclusion that emerges from the trade, it is this: Ramayana possesses extraordinary potential but remains an untested proposition until audiences watch it.
Bala perhaps sums it up best: "As long as people buy into what it's being sold on, the sky's the limit for the box office."
Rathi echoes that optimism. "This movie has what it takes in every department."
And Nahta believes the sheer curiosity factor will work in its favour. "There is the FOMO factor. Nobody would want to miss it because everybody will be talking about it."
For now, the consensus among trade experts is clear. Ramayana may not comfortably surpass Dhurandhar 2 on opening day, but if word of mouth clicks and audiences embrace Nitesh Tiwari's vision, the film has every chance of becoming one of the biggest box-office successes Indian cinema has ever seen.
Also Read: 10 Years, Rs 4,000 Crore: How Nitesh Tiwari Built The World Of Ranbir Kapoor's Ramayana
