There have been almost 200 ceasefire violations by Pakistan since January this year.
With the overnight firing in RS Pura sector in which a BSF jawan was injured, Pakistani troops have violated the ceasefire along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir at least nine times in the last five days. Intelligence reports warn that there will be more such incidents as terrorists make more attempts to infiltrate the border over the next month.
A comprehensive intelligence assessment states that over 700 well-trained and heavily-armed terrorists, mostly from the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohhmad, are waiting at various launch pads on the Pakistani side close to the LoC. As is wont, Pakistani forces stationed at the border are expected to open frequent fire to provide cover to the terrorists as they attempt to cross over into India.
The intelligence report says only a strong counter-infiltration and counter-terrorist grid in place across Jammu and Kashmir has prevented increased attacks in the interiors of the state. There have been 193 ceasefire violations by Pakistan since January this year. Much more than the 117 last year and 61 in 2011. Of these about 130 have taken place after August, including some in Kargil, which had not seen such activity since the Indo-Pak conflict in the region in 1999.
Intelligence agencies have also shared details of some of the major camps across the border that house and train terrorists. The report says that there are about 450 to 500 terrorists waiting north of the Pir Panjal range of mountains to attempt crossing over into the Kashmir valley in camps in Sonar, right opposite Guarez on the Indian side, in Kel opposite Machil, the Neelam Valley opposite Keran and in the Lipa Valley opposite India's Tangdhar.
The report says about 150 to 200 more terrorists are at camps south of the Pir Panjal range in the area that faces India's Jammu division, opposite areas like Poonch and Krishna Ghati.
Heightened aggression from across the border is expected in the next month as the onset of winter will bring heavy snow and will make most of the traditional routes of infiltration difficult to traverse. The Indian Army and intelligence agencies, however, expect infiltration attempts to continue at a lower scale through the winter months.