Iran's Ballistic Missiles Could Be Under 1,000, Drone Attacks Tapering: Ian Bremmer To NDTV

The crucial point about the war in Iran -- how long it will carry on -- is not something anyone wants to commit to, but Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, said it is certain that Iran is losing steam in terms of ammunition after just seven days.

"The Iranians are no longer launching drones at the same numbers that they did at the beginning of the week. And the ballistic missiles, they're clearly well under a thousand total remaining at this point," Bremmer told NDTV in an exclusive interview.

Many of the Iranian launch facilities, he said, have been destroyed, and the interceptor availability is also coming down.

But there is a caveat: "The fact that you have reduced capacity to hit each other doesn't equate to the end of the war".

"And if you have fewer interceptors, then all you need is the Iranians to get lucky with some drones. And suddenly, this looks very problematic indeed," he said.

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"But Hezbollah only initiated that with six missiles. Before the decapitation of Hezbollah, that was 40, 50, 100 missiles with one salvo. So, already you would see that the Iranian proxy network in the region is much diminished from what it was. We have not heard anything from the Houthis. Many are saying, well, that's going to be a game changer when they come in," Bremmer said.

About US President Donald Trump's Friday's declaration that the hostilities can end only with the "unconditional surrender" of Iran, he said Trump had done "same thing during the 12-day war".

"But there was no unconditional surrender. This war will be over when Trump decides that he's going to announce that he has accomplished all of his goals better than any president in American history. He will surely do that at some point, but it does not appear to be imminent," he added.

The outcome would be questionable as well, Bremmer pointed out.

"Let's say the war is over and at that point there are big demonstrations and then the Iranian government comes and mows down its own people again. What's the United States going to do? This will at that point look like an enormous personal failing of the American president, which, of course, implies that the war might go on for a lot longer than people have been expecting," he added.

Asked if there was a possibility of a scenario where there is no regime change and both sides just move away from the fighting, he said, "That's the most likely scenario, but there's a low level of confidence given how early we are in this and how comparatively emboldened some of the internal fighting forces could be inside Iran".

That, he said, will make the regime weaker and they are going to be facing fights on multiple fronts -- including the Kurds and their own population. "So that's the baseline scenario, but I don't know that I'm very confident in it," he added.