US Intel Warned Iran Regime Change 'Unlikely' Even After War: Report

The Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled even by a large-scale military assault, a classified report by the National Intelligence Council concluded. The report, which was completed a week before the current US-Israeli military campaign, highlights several factors for the regime's resilience, the Washington Post reported.

First, the assessment found that the regime has established clear protocols to ensure survival even if high-ranking leaders are killed. Second, intelligence officials find it unlikely that fragmented opposition groups would be able to seize control.

The idea of a mass uprising is also not in the picture; considering active bombardment and fissures within the government, the IRGC seems improbable to current and former US officials.

Read | "Loser Of The Middle East": Trump Insults Iran, Warns Of Big Strike

However, the report has not taken into consideration other possible scenarios, such as sending US troops into Iran or arming the Kurds to provoke a rebellion.

"It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years," Suzanne Maloney, an Iranian scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said of the assessment.

The report raises questions about US President Donald Trump's plan to "clean out" Iran's leadership structure.

Goals Of Operation Epic Fury

The White House has outlined the goals of Operation Epic Fury to "destroy Iran's ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon".

"The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.

Trump's Demand Of Having A Role In Choosing Next Iranian Leader

Trump has also said he must personally approve Iran's next supreme leader, just as he was involved in installing Delcy Rodriguez as Venezuela's interim president following the US-backed ouster of Nicolas Maduro.

In an interview with Axios, Trump said that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of late Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, succeeding his father as the new head of the Islamic republic is "unacceptable" and that he wants someone who would "bring harmony and peace to Iran".

Mojtaba Khamenei, one of the children of Iran's slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Photo Credit: AFP

Trump said that making someone a leader who would continue Khamenei's policies would force the US to be back to war "in five years".

Read | Trump Calls Khamenei's Son "Unacceptable", Seeks Iran Leader Who Brings Peace

After the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country announced the formation of a three-member transitional council to handle the state duties. 

"Not By Epstein's Gang"

However, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's Parliament speaker, rejected the idea of Trump having a role in choosing the country's next leader.

"The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] Epstein's gang," Ghalibaf wrote on X.

While the intelligence community remains sceptical of forced regime change, the US and Israel have continued an intensifying air campaign. 

Trump on Saturday labelled Tehran as the "loser of the Middle East" after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to the neighbouring countries for attacks launched during its war with Israel and the United States. He also warned that Iran "will be hit very hard" today.

On Friday, Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" as the only acceptable outcome to end hostilities, while promising to help rebuild the country's economy if Tehran complied and installed new leadership.

The US National Intelligence Council acts as a focal point for coordinating analysis across the 18 agencies of the US Intelligence Community.