Oxford Study Says India To Be Among Worst Hit Amid Extreme Heat Risks

A new study from the University of Oxford suggests that intensifying global warming could push billions of people into dangerously hot living conditions within the next few decades. The study estimates that if average global temperatures climb to 2-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which scientists increasingly see as plausible, around 3.79 billion people, nearly half of humanity, could be exposed to extreme heat by 2050.

The researchers stress that the most disruptive effects will not wait until that milestone is reached. As the planet approaches the 1.5-degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement, heat exposure is already expected to escalate rapidly. In 2010, extreme heat affected roughly 23 per cent of the world's population; the study projects that share could surge to 41 per cent in the coming years.

Where Heat Exposure Will Rise Fastest

According to Oxford researchers, some countries are poised to experience especially sharp increases in dangerous temperatures, including the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil. At the same time, the largest number of people exposed will be highest in populous nations such as India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines.

Cold Countries Won't Be Spared

The study finds that regions historically accustomed to cooler climates may face some of the most dramatic relative changes. Compared with the 2006-2016 period, when the planet was already about 1-degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, a rise to 2-degrees Celsius would lead to a doubling of hot days in Austria and Canada. The UK, Sweden, and Finland could see increases of around 150 per cent, while Norway may face a 200 per cent rise and Ireland as much as 230 per cent.

"Our study shows that most changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5-degrees Celsius threshold," said lead author Dr Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor of Engineering Science at Oxford.

"This means significant adaptation measures will need to be implemented much earlier than many policymakers currently anticipate."

Buildings Unprepared For Prolonged Heat

The authors caution that infrastructure in cooler countries may be particularly ill-suited to cope with sustained heat. Housing, transport systems, and energy networks have largely been designed to retain warmth, not dissipate it, leaving them vulnerable even under moderate temperature increases.

The report suggests that millions of homes could require air-conditioning within the next five years, despite the likelihood that temperatures will continue to climb well beyond that timeframe if warming reaches 2.0-degrees Celsius.

"To achieve the global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, we must rapidly decarbonise the building sector while simultaneously developing more resilient and effective adaptation strategies," Dr Lizana added.

Broader Social And Economic Consequences

Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and head of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, said the findings underscore the scale of the challenge ahead.

"Overshooting 1.5-degrees Celsius of warming will have unprecedented impacts on education, health, migration, and agriculture," she said.

Rising temperatures are also expected to push global demand for cooling sharply higher, potentially increasing emissions even as heating needs fall in countries such as Canada and Switzerland.