Decoding Tamil Nadu Elections: The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal

In the Tamil Nadu assembly election, what are the changes actor Vijay's new party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) would cut into the vote share of the ruling DMK headed by Chief Minister MK Stalin? NDTV Editor-in-Chief Rahul Kanwal looks at some scenarios and the many 'what if' that may play out after sundown on counting day.

Traditionally, Tamil Nadu has shown strong swings in change of power every five years. Would Stalin's DMK be able to hold on to power, or Vijay's TVK reshape the contest entirely?

If the TVK gets 14 per cent of the vote share, it could be a knockout blow. But for whom? This, and many other questions are up for discussion among experts and editors on the ground who are trying to make sense of what would happen.

In one simulation, TVK picked up 8 per cent vote share, which would dent the DMK and the AIADMK as well; 2 per cent of this vote share comes from the DMK and 4 per cent from the AIADMK. So it seems TVK is hurting the AIADMK more than the ruling party in this first simulation.

If this happens, the DMK could climb up to 173 seats in the alliance, the AIADMK at around 61. The big question in Vijay's case is who is he picking up more votes from? If he's getting double from the AIADMK what he is picking up from the DMK, then the DMK's lead goes up and the AIADMK alliance shrinks - a bad situation for the opposition party.

In the next simulation, a reverse of this shows 4 per cent votes coming from the DMK and 2 per cent from the AIADMK. So Vijay is clearly damaging the DMK double of what he's inflicting on the AIADMK. In this scenario too, if Vijay ends up with only 8 per cent vote share, the DMK alliance bags 142 out of the 234 seats, while the AIADMK gets 92.

As per the first scenario, Vijay's TVK getting 8 per cent vote share is really an advantage for the DMK - even if he gets a bulk of this vote from the DMK.

If Vijay manages to get 10 per cent and if almost double the share comes from the AIADMK, 2.4 per cent from the DMK and 2 per cent from other parties, the DMK emerges as the main beneficiary picking up 176 seats, and the AIADMK shrinks to 58 because the bulk of the vote is coming from its share.

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The scenarios, however, don't show Vijay being in a position to be able to form the government by himself or even an alliance. If the needle is moved from 10 per cent to 12 per cent vote share, again the bulk of it comes from the AIADMK, which means the DMK will do even better in this case as it picks up more votes.

The nightmare scenario for the DMK, however, is when Vijay picks up 8 per cent of his 12 per cent vote share from the DMK and 2 per cent from the AIADMK. This results in the AIADMK winning 127 and the DMK 107.

For the first time in one of the scenarios, the AIADMK is in the lead, courtesy Vijay.

Finally, in a simulation with 14 per cent vote share for Vijay, if 8.4 per cent comes from the AIADMK, then it results in a sweep for the ruling DMK. Here, the AIADMK falls to 51 seats. If this was reversed, that is if 8.4 per cent of the 14 per cent comes from the DMK, then the AIADMK wins some 115 seats as against the DMK's 119, which makes the battle very close.

Some of the key questions remain: what happens to Vijay himself; where does he end up; is he irrelevant; a game changer, or a knockout? Who does he hurt more?

Voting in Tamil Nadu will be held in a single phase on April 23. Counting is on May 4. The main contestants are the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by AIADMK with the BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as allies. SPA members include the Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).