Last year, at a book release event in August, the then Governor of Bihar, Rajendra Arlekar, had described Chief Minister Nitish Kumar rather peculiarly: 'Ajatashatru', meaning one who has no enemies. "He enjoys cordial relations even with the opposition and never uses wrong words against them. Nitish bears no ill will against anyone," he had said.
Looking back today, that might as well be true for someone who has been administering the state of Bihar for two decades now - except for a brief interregnum of nine months - and is tipped to continue in the job even after the forthcoming assembly election later this year. Age is no bar: despite having turned 74, Kumar remains the face of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition in Bihar.
Five years ago, Nitish faced a huge setback when his Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), was reduced to a paltry 43 seats in the 243-seat state assembly. But even that couldn't keep him from holding on to his chief ministerial office for the whole term, first in the company of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and then the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and then again, the BJP.
Now, with the JD(U)'s 12 MPs serving as a vital buffer to the BJP's 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, his position is virtually safe. That is, unless the INDIA bloc can wrest a win against all odds.
State Of Play
The trouble is that the 'Mahagadbandhan' remains a grand coalition just in name. It has failed to broaden its base beyond the Muslim-Yadav combination. There is a third player, too, in election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, but it remains to be seen whether it can really emerge as kingmaker or deny Nitish a fifth term in power by splitting NDA votes.
As things stand, the NDA's prospects have only brightened following Operation Sindoor and the announcement of a caste census by the Centre. In the wake of Operation Sindoor, PM Modi held a massive roadshow in Patna on May 29, his third visit to the state in five months; the next stopover was in June 20. Even Rahul Gandhi has been a bit more visible in Bihar lately, following the appointment of his close aide, Krishna Allavaru, as the general secretary in charge of the Congress, and Dalit leader Rajesh Kumar as its new state chief. Allavaru is apparently the brains behind the 'Palayan Roko, Naukri Do' padayatra led by Kanhaiya Kumar.
Chirag Paswan's Gamble
However, in what might set the alarm bells ringing for Nitish, Union Minister Chirag Paswan has expressed his intent to contest the assembly elections, stating that he has his heart set on Bihar politics going forward. Although Chirag clarified that there was no vacancy for the Chief Minister's chair for now, Nitish wouldn't be very pleased with the proposition of having to contend with a young face from within the NDA ranks. In any case, he has to contend with Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor and Kanhaiya Kumar in the opposition. Not to forget, it was Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP) that was primarily responsible for the JD(U)'s dismal tally of 43 in 2020, defeating it single-handedly in as many as 28 constituencies.
Rumours abounded back then that the LJP had been contesting that election with the blessings of the BJP. The 5.8% vote share registered by the party, with its candidates vying for 143 constituencies, had ensured that Chirag's faction would eventually replace the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) led by his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, in the NDA fold. The RLJP was also not accommodated in the NDA's seat-sharing arrangement in 2020, but, nevertheless, it stood out the contest, with Paras serving in the Modi Cabinet back then. Today, the RLJP has finally joined the Opposition-led Mahagadbandhan in the run-up to the polls. The fact, however, remains that it's a virtually untested party in the poll arena.
With Nitish's popularity gradually on the wane, it is likely that the BJP will once again let Chirag do his thing in Bihar as the NDA's 'youth' face to counter the likes of Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor. Chirag is reportedly seeking a share of 42 seats - what the undivided Lok Janshakti Party was allocated within the NDA in 2015. But he could be happy with much less, too. More than the seat tally, Chirag sees an opportunity to emerge as a potential leader of the alliance in 2030, when Nitish would be months shy of turning 80.
BJP's Shortage Of Faces
Herein lies the BJP's main trouble in Bihar, the only state in the Hindi heartland where it has failed to independently head a government. The BJP has leaders hailing from every dominant caste group. There is Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, a Koeri, Vijay Kumar Sinha and Giriraj Singh, both Bhumihars, Mangal Pandey and Rajiv Pratap Rudy, both Brahmins, Nand Kishore Yadav and Nityanand Rai from the Yadav group, Sanjay Paswan and Janak Ram representing Dalit sections, and Ravishankar Prasad, a Kayastha. However, none of them has a pan-Bihar appeal. Nitish's former deputy, Sushil Kumar Modi, who passed away last year, was the BJP's best-known face in the state. He was from the Vaishya caste.
While Nitish towers as the tallest Kurmi leader in Bihar, the Koeris are also part of the JD(U)'s core base, with the Kurmis and Koeris traditionally comprising the Luv-Kush grouping. Notwithstanding familiar Kurmi faces such as Keshav Prasad Maurya in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has failed to groom a Kurmi leader of its own in Bihar. True, Samrat Chaudhary does have some influence in the Koeri community, but there are challengers to him within the NDA ranks, such as Upendra Kushwaha, the leader of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, who has been smarting after his loss in the Lok Sabha election. That defeat robbed him of a central ministry, even if he was later nominated to the Rajya Sabha.
How The Alliances Stack Up
Even so, the BJP has a robust organisation in the state, along with the goodwill factor of PM Modi. Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is not part of the NDA anymore, and hence the 11 seats allotted to it in 2020 for Extremely Backward Class (EBC) Mallahs have been freed, although Kushwaha's RLM will have to be given some of them.
In any case, it is unlikely that, as in 2020, the BJP will part with 115 seats and leave them for the JD(U), although accommodating Chirag's LJP would mean both principal parties contesting fewer seats. Nitish, on his part, will continue to drive a hard bargain, with his base more or less intact. With the addition of Jitan Ram Majhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), the NDA looks formidable on paper. Remember, even in the challenging 2024 Lok Sabha election, the NDA had held its own in Bihar, winning 30 out of the 40 seats in the state.
The INDIA bloc has its task cut out. The RJD is likely to leave around 100 seats for its allies. Apart from the VIP and the RLJP - not part of the alliance in 2020 - the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has also reached out to Tejashwi Yadav to be accommodated within the coalition. But the Grand Alliance has shown little interest. Also, with the CPI (Marxist-Leninist) demanding its fair share on account of its impressive strike rate, the Congress's seat tally could come down from a high of 70 in 2020 to as little as 40 seats.
The Nitish Formula
There has been no dearth of political obituaries written for Nitish Kumar since 2014, but the 'Ajatashatru' has managed to outwit his detractors every single time. What most critics don't realise about his longevity is that he had worked hard - losing four elections on the trot - before finally becoming Chief Minister in 2005. He carved his own base out of Lalu Prasad Yadav's original coalition, getting the EBCs, the non-Yadav OBCs, Mahadalits, and even Pasmanda Muslims to add to the Kurmi-Koeri foundation.
In 2020, both the NDA and the Mahagadbandhan polled around 37% votes. Now, with the addition of the LJP to the NDA and smaller parties to the opposition alliance, a winning coalition would need upwards of 40% votes. Sure, Prashant Kishor's approval ratings have been on the rise, but that may not necessarily translate to votes. Nobody understands that better than Nitish himself, who won just 4% votes in the company of the CPI(ML) in his first election, after striking out on his own in 1995.
Interestingly though, Prashant Kishor seems to be playing the long game, like Nitish himself. And he has the mentor's former loyalist and handyman, RCP Singh, by his side, the latter having merged his JD(U) faction with the Jan Suraaj recently. Kishor has his sights on the JD(U)'s formidable vote base, with the party unlikely to survive after Nitish Kumar. The nine-time Chief Minister is not like his fellow socialists, who engendered dynastic politics; Nitish's 44-year-old reclusive son Nishant Kumar is highly unlikely to make a political foray at this stage.
For the BJP, this could have been the perfect time to deepen its roots in Bihar, had it not been for the JD(U)'s 12 Lok Sabha MPs and the 'Ajatashatru's' ability - and tendency - to nonchalantly walk over to the opposite side with his faithful voter base. Having failed at charting a bigger role for himself outside Bihar as part of the INDIA bloc, Nitish knows that this year's election might just be his last hurrah.
(Anand Kochukudy is a senior journalist and columnist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
