"Shiv Sena won't ally with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM even in our sleep," said a combative Uddhav Thackeray, Maharashtra Chief Minister and Sena chief, in a video address to Shiv Sena MPs and other party members two days ago. Adding insult to injury, he proclaimed, "Everyone knows that AIMIM is the BJP's 'B-Team" and the BJP has hatched a conspiracy to defame the Sena on Hindutva."
Thackeray's giant public snub intends to make it clear that he is not going to allow the BJP to present him as a leader with a diluted stand on Hindutva. Given the BJP's plus-sized victories, due at least in part to its Hindutva agenda, the party wants to present any rival right-wing party as having strayed from the cause. Thackeray, 60, isn't having any of it.
His allegation about Owaisi and the BJP's undeclared liaison is one that has currency among all Opposition parties. Owaisi, who has two Lok Sabha seats, can't seem to shrug off the tag of the second division of the BJP; the Opposition unanimously believes he is deployed as a "vote-cutter" for the Muslim constituency. Because he does not ally with any of them, he eats into the Muslim vote-share, allowing the BJP big gains. In the recent Uttar Pradesh election, he put up as many as 100 candidates (the state has 403 seats). This prompted "vote-cutter" shade simultaneously from Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Priyanka Gandhi of the Congress.
Asaduddin Owaisi (File photo)
According to the Election Commission, the AIMIM got 0.43% vote share in the UP elections. Owaisi won no seats. This was not the first foray into UP for Owaisi whose support base lies mainly in his home state of Telangana. In the last state election, he had 38 candidates in areas which had a large presence of Muslims. 37 of them lost their deposits.
In Maharashtra, though, in 2019, he notched up two MLAs, a considerable accomplishment for a tiny regional party. Sources say that AIMIM MP Imtiaz Jaleel Member of Parliament from Aurangabad made the offer to Rajesh Tope, Health Minister of Maharashtra from the NCP. Tope had called on Jaleel to visit his ailing mother. Jaleel made the offer to ally with the MVA government after it was cleared by Owaisi.
It created ripples in Maharashtra politics. Sena MP Sanjay Raut said to ANI, 10 days ago, that Owaisi was worthy of a "Bharat Ratna for helping the BJP in the UP elections".
Raut also ruled out any alliance post the Jaleel offer.
While the insults are being hurled at Owaisi from Thackeray and Co, the Sena's real target is the BJP and in particular, former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union Minister Narayan Rane, formerly of the Sena and then the Congress.
Uddhav Thackeray and Anil Deshmukh (File photo)
The Owaisi Files are growing in importance because the election to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is due. The BMC is India's richest civic body and has a budget of nearly 40,000 crores. The Sena has run the BMC for over two decades; in 2017, it won its fifth straight term.
Ever since Thackeray broke the "Yuti" with the BJP in November 2019 and pogo-sticked into an unlikely alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar, the BJP has been trying to exact revenge. Hence, a rich assortment of cases of corruption have been filed against top ministers or leaders of the three parties that form the government. Many have been raided. Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh, ministers from Pawar's party have been jailed on charges of money-laundering. Similar charges are being made against Pawar's relatives. Opposition leaders have repeatedly said this is the unmasked rage of the BJP being given a free hand. Thackeray has compared the BJP to a snake which had been fed milk by the Sena, a reference to their lengthy alliance which he cancelled.
Paradoxically, the big fight between Maharashtra's ruling alliance (MVA) and the BJP is serving as the glue that holds the alliance together. Senior MVA leaders told me that they expected the BJP to up the ante against the MVA government after winning Uttar Pradesh and that and Owaisi's "poisoned offer" was the first move off the block. "They will do many things make offers and threats but both Pawar Saab and Uddhav Saab are aware of the real motives of the BJP. Owaisi is just a mukhauta (mask) for Amit Shah".
The Sena mocks Fadnavis and his daily pressers on the government as the acts of a man "desperately in a hurry to be Chief Minister again". Sources say that Thackeray will never consider an alliance with the BJP again as he is convinced that they want to subsume his party. Don't ignore the fact that Thackeray is a low-key but sensitive leader who felt disrespected by the BJP of Modi and Shah.
It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the BJP-vs-Sena conflict to 10X. Both sides are all-in.
(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.