New Delhi:
The UPA'S dream legislation, the Women's Reservation Bill is set to be back in Rajya Sabha on Monday, March 8, which also happens to be International Women's Day.
Seems like the political game changer, Women Reservation Bill, has entered the penultimate round.
Congress President Sonia Gandhi has told MPs that the quota Bill will be a gift to women on March 8, the 100th International Women's Day.
So government's floor managers are counting support and preparing for a showdown.
In May 2008, the Law Minister had to be shielded from anti quota MPs. The Bill, a constitutional amendment, needs support of 2/3rd MPs.
In Lok Sabha, just the Congress, BJP and the Left have 348 MPs of the total 545.
But the first hurdle is the Rajya Sabha.
Rajya Sabha
Total Members: 245
Required: 163
Clear support: 160
Congress: 71
BJP: 45
Left: 22
AIADMK: 7
The Bill has been stalled for 13 years, but clear opponents of the quota Bill are few in comparison.
Opposed to Bill: 27
JDU: 7
SP: 12
RJD: 4
Shiv Sena: 4
Quota for women in Parliament and state Assemblies depends a lot on fence sitters, who are either silent or are citing preconditions for support.
Fence Sitters: 58
Including UPA's allies and supporters like DMK, BSP and Trinamool Congress
But in every formation there are jitters. Barring the Left, there are voices of dissent. And that includes the Congress.
That is why the onus is on the government to hold its ranks and organise support.
For the July 2008 vote of confidence over the Nuclear Deal, the Congress talked to every possible MP for support. And it won.
The Women's Bill, which now needs the same effort from the government, is all set to test its will.