Analysis: Will Humayun Kabir Split Bengal Muslim Votes? New Party Challenges Trinamool

Assembly elections in Bengal just months away, Humayun Kabir's rebellious move to form his own party and challenge Mamata Banerjee has been a political sideshow the likes of which the state has not witnessed in years. At least not since Mamata Banerjee's move to form her own party in 1998, breaking away from the Congress. But though the trajectory is comparable, the similarities end there. While Mamata Banerjee had established herself as Bengal's "Agni Kanya (fiery daughter)" in her days in the Congress and had acquired a statewide reputation, Humayun Kabir's influence, for now, does not go much beyond his native Murshidabad.

Even so, in the staid political backwaters of Bengal, his move to announce the building of a Babri Masjid and claim widespread Muslim support has drawn attention. It has been escalated by the formation of his Janata Unnayan Party while staying suspended from the ruling Trinamool Congress and announcement that it would contest 135 of Bengal's 294 Assembly seats.

There is even speculation whether he would be successful in splitting the Muslim vote in Bengal.

If yes, the results could be disastrous for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, which currently scoops up a chunk of its votes from Bengal's 27 per cent Muslim population.

The answer, though, is tricky and calls for more than a straight yes or no.

Kabir, who made his explosive move to announce a Babri Masjid replica in Bengal, did so after airing a long list of grouse against his party boss and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. 

For the record, it was not exactly a comfortable relationship. 

In 2015, he was expelled from the Trinamool for six years for criticising Mamata Banerjee and alleging that she was trying to make her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, the 'king'.

Kabir's next big move was to cosy up to the AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) of Asaduddin Owaisi, widely dubbed the B Team of the BJP.

The presence of Muslim crowds at Kabir's initial rallies has boosted his morale and by emphasizing a strong Muslim identity, he is expected to increase both funding and support.

The possibility of seat-sharing with the CPM and ISF in the 22 seats of Murshidabad could give him some political space.

But the returns from his joining forces with AIMIM is doubtful. While AIMIM had contested seven seats in Bengal in 2021, they failed to win any. His stellar result in Bihar has now given Owaisi some grounds for hope.

But achieving a split in the Muslim vote is still a huge claim in a state like Bengal, where the community is yet to voice any real grouse against Mamata Banerjee.

Humayun Kabir's other weaknesses include his lack of stature and to an extent -- popularity. Kabir had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election on a BJP ticket. He, however, switched to Trinamool after the loss. That stigma is yet to dissipate, and his solo flight can even lead to an erosion of trust among Muslim voters.

Moreover, Kabir lacks strong organisation, a grassroots team, and reliable allies. His defeat -- finishing third and not even second -- as a BJP candidate underscores this weakness.

Furthermore, even a seat-sharing arrangement with the existing Muslim party, ISF - if it can be worked out - could lead to an internal conflict, especially among grassroot workers.

On the plus side, Kabir's open confrontation with the BJP could bring about a polarization of votes, which is a key part of his strategy.

Kabir is hoping to capitalise on possible discontent of a section of Muslim community that the state government, under the Chief Minister's leadership, is building temples but not a single mosque. His campaign is based on the grouse that several temples, from Jagannath Temple to Mahakal Temple, are being renovated.

Kabir is said to be receiving substantial financial support -- approximately Rs 5 crore in funding from various donors - for his Babri masjid.

His considerable political experience and Bengali Muslim identity could also attract a portion of Muslim votes in Murshidabad.

Last but not the least -- almost all anti-Trinamool parties in the state are supporting him. The Congress and the Left are showing leniency. There are reports that Humayun Kabir is open to seat-sharing arrangements with parties like the CPM and the MIM.

But Mamata Banerjee's real campaign is yet to begin. Her narrative might be that the BJP is using Humayun Kabir to divide the Muslim vote.

Party sources indicate that Mamata Banerjee could openly deploy her influential Muslim leaders, Firhad Hakim and Javed Khan Siddiqullah, against him.

The ISF leadership and the influential religious figures associated with Furfura Sharif currently appear to be aligned with Banerjee. The support of prominent Imams of Bengal, Nakhoda masjid, Tipu Sultan Mosque and the State Minority Commission for her could prove a significant hurdle for Kabir.

Bengali Muslims are a majority in the state, so Urdu-centric politics like that of the AIMIM will have only a limited impact.