What's Delaying Monsoon? Scientists Point To Indian Ocean, El Nino

The Indian Ocean, which normally plays a key role in driving the monsoon, is currently showing unusually weak weather activity. The situation is linked to the development of El Nino, a weather pattern that can reduce rainfall and affect monsoon conditions.

Warm waters in the Indian Ocean typically help form clouds and low-pressure systems that move towards India and bring the monsoon. However, scientists said that the ocean is currently witnessing less cloud formation and weaker weather activity than usual.

Satellite images show large areas of clear skies south of India, which means fewer rain systems are forming over the ocean. Because of this, the monsoon winds are not getting enough strength. That is why the rains are slower and not fully covering places like Kerala and other parts of India yet.

The central government has put itself on alert mode to deal with the possible impact of El Nino, Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday.

He said a high-level meeting was held to review the situation and assess the progress of the southwest monsoon as well as its possible impact on agriculture. He assured that the government's main focus is to protect farmers' interests at all costs.

The government is preparing in advance by focusing on key areas such as better quality of seeds, moisture conservation, water management and alternative crop planning.

He also said that currently water levels in reservoirs are better than normal, which is a positive sign for the upcoming Kharif crop (monsoon crop) sowing.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations' official body that monitors the Earth's atmospheric conditions, said El Nino conditions are forming due to unusual sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This is expected to affect rainfall and temperature patterns across the world and increase the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months.

The report added that above-normal temperatures are expected in many regions between June and August. It also said such forecasts help countries prepare better and protect lives and livelihoods.

According to the latest update issued by the WMO, there is an 80 percent probability of an El Nino event during June-August 2026. It is expected to continue until November with a likelihood of around 90 percent or higher. The agency said the event could range from moderate to strong intensity, although exact timing and strength remain uncertain.