Uddhav Thackerey, Cousin Raj's Growing Proximity Unnerves Congress

The growing proximity between Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin Raj Thackeray has caused considerable unease within the Congress, sparking a fresh round of speculation over the future of Maharashtra's primary opposition alliance, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The central question now is whether Uddhav Thackeray can remain a part of the MVA if he forges an alliance with Raj Thackeray, which the Congress finds unacceptable.

On Thursday, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray stated that he and Raj were capable of deciding on an alliance and that no third party's intervention was needed. This declaration has put Congress in an awkward position. The Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress are the two principal partners in the MVA. An alliance between the Thackeray cousins would make Uddhav's continuation in the MVA highly improbable.

The Congress's primary objection stems from the recent stance of Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) against non-Marathis. In recent months, MNS workers have assaulted individuals for not speaking Marathi and engaged in violent protests. The MNS also has a history of violence against North Indians. The Congress fears that an alliance with the MNS would alienate its non-Marathi voters, leading to a significant backlash.

Another possibility is that Uddhav Thackeray may exit the MVA altogether. Formed in 2019, the MVA brought together the undivided Shiv Sena, undivided NCP, and Congress. An MVA without Uddhav's faction would face a critical crisis of existence, especially given the weakened state of Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP) following the 2023 rebellion. Adding to the instability are recent rumors of a potential reunion between Sharad Pawar and his nephew, Ajit Pawar.

A third scenario is that no political alliance materializes between the two Thackeray cousins.

On July 5, Uddhav and Raj Thackeray shared a public stage in Worli, Mumbai, for the first time in 20 years. While Uddhav Thackeray suggested they would continue to be together, Raj Thackeray clarified a few days later to his party workers that their joint appearance was solely on the issue of Hindi opposition and should not be seen as a decision on a political alliance.

Some political observers fear that seat-sharing negotiations just before the elections could lead to another fallout between the brothers, preventing any coalition. Others view the entire episode as a political game orchestrated by the BJP from behind the scenes.

Local body elections are scheduled to be held in Maharashtra within the next three months. While uncertainty plagues the MVA, the ruling Mahayuti alliance has decided that its constituent parties will contest most of the municipal corporation elections together, signaling a clear united front.