Two Losses, Several Warnings: What BJP Must Learn From The Bypolls

The BJP has received bad news for the second consecutive week. While last week was marked by the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan after massive protests against question paper leaks, this week is starting with defeats in two assembly by-elections. The BJP lost Bihar's Bankipur seat - the one vacated by party chief Nitin Nabin - and Datia in Madhya Pradesh, two states it rules.

Typically, ruling parties tend to win by-elections - as happened in the Gujarat's Manjalpur assembly seat. The BJP won the seat by a wide margin. In that backdrop, the losses in Bankipur and Datia are particularly stinging.

The Bankipur defeat is especially painful - in the last election, the won this seat by a margin of over 50,000 votes.

Read: Prashant Kishor Makes Stellar Electoral Debut From BJP's Bihar Stronghold Bankipur

BJP leaders said the defeat will be analysed. A booth-wise analysis will be conducted to determine the margin of Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor. The poll-strategist-turned political leader won the seat,  creating a foothold for his party in the state assembly.

The BJP's preliminary assessment suggests that the RJD transferred its votes to Prashant Kishor. Tejashwi Yadav had campaigned for only one hour. 

The BJP has now alleged collusion between the RJD and PK.

According to one leader, while the RJD retained its core vote bank during the assembly elections, its strategy involved promoting Prashant Kishor to make inroads into the BJP's upper-caste vote base. 

In the previous election, RJD's Rekha Gupta had secured over 46,000 votes. This time, she failed to garner even 15,000 votes.

The BJP's vote count has dropped by approximately one-third. Party leaders acknowledged that a portion of the party's core vote base has drifted away, and this will be reviewed. They also remarked that the targeting of the Chief Minister-as Prashant Kishor is doing-is "misguided".

Read: In Another Life, Prashant Kishor Helped Others Win Polls. Now He's Bihar's Newest MLA

Sources said the BJP also suffered losses due to its decision to change its candidate. This conveyed the message that the BJP takes its voters for granted. 

The party had entrusted local leaders with the responsibility of campaigning for this seat. National President Nitin Nabin had visited the constituency four times, as it is his traditional seat. But leaders of the BJP do not deny that their core voter base is upset over issues such as the NEET paper leak agitation, UGC guidelines, and the Bharat Tiwari encounter. This was reflected in the low voter turnout.

The party also suffered setbacks due to student protests and police actions in various parts of Bihar.

The defeat in the Datia is set to increase the headache for Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, who is already facing criticism from a faction within the party. 

The blame for the defeat, however, is likely to fall on former state minister Narottam Mishra - the three-time winner of the seat -- as he had publicly expressed his displeasure after being denied ticket. His supporters had engaged in widespread violence, although he did eventually campaign at the party's behest. Today, the party has lost even at Narottam Mishra's local polling booth.

BJP leaders maintained that the contest in Datia was tough. The party had lost this seat in the previous assembly elections as well, despite a massive BJP wave across the state. 

The Congress merely retained its seat. However, they do not deny that flaws in candidate selection-whether in Bankipur or Datia-contributed to the defeat.

While the BJP is reluctant to attribute the by-election losses to youth discontent and protests, the party will certainly engage in introspection following these results.

Party leaders said they must gear up to address fundamental issues. Significant changes within both the government and the party organisation may be seen in the near future.