The Pawars Are Back In Town (Pune, That Is) For The Municipal Election

Uncle and nephew have joined forces, more than two years after a dramatic break-up reshaped the Maharashtra political landscape, for next month's Pune Municipal Corporation election.

The Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party factions have held a first meeting regarding seat-sharing for the January 15 election, sources told NDTV Thursday morning.

Sharad Pawar – from whose side nephew Ajit walked away in July 2023 to align with the BJP and Eknath Shinde's breakaway Shiv Sena unit – is understood to want between 40 and 45 seats.

The catch, though, is Ajit Pawar is unwilling to offer more than 30.

A final decision will be taken after talks with his cousin, Supriya Sule, the Sharad Pawar NCP's Working President. A first round of talks took place last night between Subhash Jagtap and Sunil Tingre from Ajit Pawar's side and Vishal Tambe and Ankush Kakade from his uncle's group.

Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar's reconciliation for the Pune election, if it happens, is unlikely to translate into a larger reunion; the latter will have to give up his Deputy Chief Minister's post, and his party leaders their cushy positions in the Maharashtra cabinet, if that was to happen.

Ajit Pawar, poll analysts speculate, has been cut loose by the BJP – entrenched as the dominant partner in the ruling Mahayuti alliance with the NCP and Shinde's Sena – to avoid alienating its Hindu voter base ahead of the more critical Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election.

In 2017, the last BMC election, seven of the (then undivided) NCP's nine corporators came from Mumbai's eastern suburbs – areas with Muslim and Dalit populations. Running with Ajit Pawar's party next month, the BJP believes, could be seen as aligning with those communities and that could risk alienating the party's Hindu voter base, one it has been cultivating for the BMC poll.

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From the BJP's perspective, this is advantageous.

If the NCP performs well, its numbers can be added to the Mahayuti total post-poll. If not, it splits minority votes, particularly since a Congress miffed by another big-ticket family reunion – Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray getting back together has decided to contest solo.

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But the Pawars' reunion, more than the Thackeray cousins', signals a possible shift in political allegiances in Maharashtra. The NCP and Sena splits – orchestrated by the BJP's Devendra Fadnavis from June 2022 to July 2023 – was critical in returning the party to power in Maharashtra.

The splits helped the BJP bring down the then-ruling Maha Vikas Aghadhi (a coalition of the undivided Shiv Sena and NCP, with the Congress) but the 'big brother' never lost control.

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Pawar's NCP and Shinde's Sena were never allowed to outshine the BJP, a fact underscored by the ruthlessness with which the latter was removed as Chief Minister despite leading a stable government in his half-term. At the same time, the BJP has now enhanced its base in semi-urban and rural areas.

Are the two smaller Mahayuti parties going to break off? Probably not, at least not immediately, for both have too much to lose. But there is tension in the ruling coalition's ranks.

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Over the past weeks and months public statements have been made by leaders from all sides; while they may not be direct attacks, the statements have been politically loaded, culminating in a sharp note by Shinde to his 'bosses'. "My clear stand is ' we fully follow the principles of coalition dharma and our alliance partners should also follow the same'," he told NDTV.

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