Easy Victory For NDA, Nitish Kumar May Be Biggest Winner In Bihar: Exit Polls

In the 2020 Bihar election the Bharatiya Janata Party did something it had not managed in two decades – outscore Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United in an Assembly election.

In the 2025 edition normal service might resume, the Matrize exit poll indicated Tuesday evening, hours after voting for the second and final phase was completed. The numbers suggested a narrow but clear edge for Nitish Kumar's party – 67-75 seats to 65-73.

Matrize also gave the BJP-led ruling alliance a big win, predicting between 147 and 167 seats for it and only 70-90 for the opposition Mahagathbandhan, with Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj flopping on its debut. A poll of exit polls was similarly clear; a big victory for the NDA.

Of course, back in 2000, it wasn't really the JDU, it was the Samata Party, and it was an undivided Bihar, i.e., before Jharkhand was carved out of its southern districts. But it was still Nitish Kumar at the helm and the BJP, led by Sushil Kumar Modi, got 67 seats to the SAP's 34.

The 2020 poll result – BJP 74 to JDU 43 – was a big shock because it put Nitish firmly on the back foot going into talks over the details of government formation. There was talk the JDU boss, who even by then had had an extended run as Chief Minister of Bihar, would finally step aside.

Now he would have to be content, it was said, with being the 'little brother'.

Eventually, though, the veteran politician remained in power, even if, two years later, he claimed only "serious pressure" had persuaded him to become Chief Minister again; "… I was ready for a Chief Minister from the BJP since they had more MLAs, but there was serious pressure on me…"

Now, though, he may be set for a return to the 'big brother' chair, even as some political analysts and the opposition wrote the 74-year-old politician off and predicted the end of his career.

If the numbers hold, not only will Nitish make a triumphant return to the top of Bihar's power hierarchy, he will certainly extend an already impressive run of nearly two decades as a chief minister. And could end his next term by become the longest-serving chief minister ever.

Over the years the relationship between Nitish and the BJP has been complicated, at best.

The JDU boss has flip-flopped between the saffron party and frenemy Rashtriya Janata Dal five times since 2013, with each shift representing a carefully calculated strategic move to either win or retain power. The last jump was amid high drama in January last year.

Nitish Kumar, who worked hard to create the INDIA bloc and expected to be suitably rewarded, was miffed to find the Congress taking the leadership role and other parties, including Bengal's ruling Trinamool Congress, jostling for power ahead of the Lok Sabha election.

And so he walked out of the Mahagathbandhan and into the National Democratic Alliance, though that didn't work out quite as well as he may have hoped; the JDU dropped four seats (and the BJP five) to a resurgent opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav.

To have turned those results around in a little under two years (again, assuming exit poll numbers hold), is quite the achievement for Nitish Kumar.